ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[HURAKAN]

[cheezyWXguy]

a little surprised to see the convection weakening so quickly this evening

Its actually not. On the ramsdis floater, reds reappear directly over the center of the mlc again, with an intense burst off to the northwest being absorbed into the system. In addition, outflow is improving and primitive banding features maybe trying to develop.

[Weatherfreak14]

Looks like more convection will pop up on the NE side now.

[Blown Away]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL233 PM EDT WED AUG 13 2008

SUN-TUE...WAVE CURRENTLY EAST OF THE ANTILLES CONTINUES TO SHOW A
POTENTIAL FOR FURTHER ORGANIZATION WHILE SKIRTING THE CARIBBEAN.
SATELLITE IMAGERY DURING THE PAST 4 TO 6 HOURS IS INDICATING MORE
PERSISTENT CONVECTION...WHICH HAD BEEN VERY DISORGANIZED OVERNIGHT
DUE TO AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO LESSEN IN
THE AREA AND GLOBAL SOLNS CONTINUE TO INDICATE VARYING DEGREES OF
DEVELOPMENT WITH THE GFS/UKMET MAINTAINING WAVE STATUS OVER AT
LEAST THE NEXT 36 HOURS. ECMWF CONTINUES A MORE ROBUST TENDENCY IN
DEVELOPMENT. SYSTEM EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN SOME TYPE OF PRESENCE
EITHER AS A STRONG WAVE OR PERHAPS CLOSED LOW WHILE MOVING
GENERALLY TOWARD THE TURKS AND CAICOS BY SATURDAY. CURRENT HPC/NHC
COORD TRACK IN THE MEDIUM RANGE INDICATING A SPOT LOW NEAR THE FL
STRAITS JUSTIFIES CLOSE MONITORING SHOULD SYSTEM DEVELOP.

[BensonTCwatcher]

Hmmm Bones in sickbay for a while on this one. I had to do a bunch of checking before posting. But this system is playing out so far as it looked 2 days ago and esp from yesterday. 2 days ago it beat the odds and kept enough energy to say alive in the presence of the TUTT. The ULL to the west has retrograded a bit faster than I thought, however I don't see rapid development at all for another 24 hours due to remnant shear, some dry air, and not enough low level convergence just yet to stack up the circulations (MLC and LLC) with the vort center of the low. My guess is by tomorrow we will have continued development and a few good model runs plus recon to see what the trends and consensus is. I was more bullish than Derek or Wxman by a factor of ten early on, but there seems to be enough model support and the ridge and EC trough seem to be generally behaving along the GFS, HWRF, and Euro solutions. 48 hrs plus, I see this system becoming a real threat to SE FL or more likely this is an Outerbanks nightmare if it develops over the long run. I don't see the upcoming week synoptics varying much from climo (although this week's pattern looked like October). Therefore a TC on the progged track in 36-48 hours i.e. tracking just E of Hisp is beginning to look like real trouble. I'll be looking for the "spoiler"to development or someting to let this storm recurve. Don't see it yet, so we'll see if we get a TD tomorrow.

[cycloneye]

I dont see convection weakening here:

[Honeyko]

a little surprised to see the convection weakening so quickly this evening

Well, you didn't expect conditions to go from horrible to spectacular in only one day? Give it time....

==//==

I may be wrong about this, but I'm guessing that no CV system approaching from the east has ever hit the Dominican Republic/Haiti, at named status ,if it did not also hit, or go south of, Puerto Rico.

[micktooth]

Here in Colorado they are talking about a "winter like" scenario developing. A strong low pressure system over the state and even snow in the mountains. Do you think this unseasonable pattern will affect 92L?

[Ed Mahmoud]

That winter type trough over the GOM and across North/Central Florida must be part of 92L's future steering pattern. Unless it just dissapates.

GFDL must see it because it recurves a 116 knot hurricane 75 miles off Florida.

See my comment on models thread about outer grid 500 mb heights. GFDL shows a recurve beginning, but outer grid shows ridge building in, and nearly stationary trough slowly weakening, that is, axis barely moves, but positively tilted (axis about Dallas to Pittsburgh, give or take) trough losing amplitude as ridge tries to build in, possibly either holding 92L on a due North path towards Carolinas, or even turning it back Northwest. That is amateur speculation past 126 hours, based on what GFDL does with 500 mb heights last 24 hours of its run, so it isn't anything certain, but a recurve is far from a sure bet.

I'd say Northern Gulf Coast to Canadian Maritimes, plus NE L. Antilles and all the Greater Antilles need to stay aware, keep reading Storm2K, and following local weather service and NHC updates.

[Sanibel]

Right now I don't see anything pulling it north either.

[Derek Ortt]

a little surprised to see the convection weakening so quickly this evening

Well, you didn't expect conditions to go from horrible to spectacular in only one day? Give it time....

==//==

I may be wrong about this, but I'm guessing that no CV system approaching from the east has ever hit the Dominican Republic/Haiti, at named status ,if it did not also hit, or go south of, Puerto Rico.

Debby 2000 did

saw the latest sat frame... seems as if a new burst is about to go, as expected

I'm watching near 18N for the LLC to form


*edited by sg to fix the quote box

[GeneratorPower]

a little surprised to see the convection weakening so quickly this evening

Weakening? I am utterly befuddled and baffled.

[Sanibel]

Better rotation. It shot a brief W outflow band with good symmetry last few hours.

Visible will be interesting tomorrow.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Some -70ºC cloud tops. I now raise my totally unscientific odds to 63% in favor of development. 63% makes it lool like I put more thought in than 60%, even though I didn't.


I think it becomes a TD w/i 24 hours now, but I have been wrong before, 3 times in 4 days on 94L/Dolly.


Bed time.

[cycloneye]

Pic at 11:15 PM EDT:

[BensonTCwatcher]

Some -70ºC cloud tops. I now raise my totally unscientific odds to 63% in favor of development. 63% makes it lool like I put more thought in than 60%, even though I didn't.


I think it becomes a TD w/i 24 hours now, but I have been wrong before, 3 times in 4 days on 94L/Dolly.


Bed time.

I'd say that's right on the money (unscientifically of course) but I'll raise you to 68.4% based on some banding starting

[cheezyWXguy]

Some -70ºC cloud tops. I now raise my totally unscientific odds to 63% in favor of development. 63% makes it lool like I put more thought in than 60%, even though I didn't.


I think it becomes a TD w/i 24 hours now, but I have been wrong before, 3 times in 4 days on 94L/Dolly.


Bed time.

Lol why 63% Why not 62% or 64%
Anyway, why such an exact number? Using a chart?

[cheezyWXguy]

Pic at 11:15 PM EDT:

Based on that image, it looks like the old center is collapsing, and inflow channels are now flowing into the east side of the convection from the south. These maybe the first signs of a new llc developing.

[Aric Dunn]

a little surprised to see the convection weakening so quickly this evening

Well, you didn't expect conditions to go from horrible to spectacular in only one day? Give it time....

==//==

I may be wrong about this, but I'm guessing that no CV system approaching from the east has ever hit the Dominican Republic/Haiti, at named status ,if it did not also hit, or go south of, Puerto Rico.

Debby 2000 did

saw the latest sat frame... seems as if a new burst is about to go, as expected

I'm watching near 18N for the LLC to form


*edited by sg to fix the quote box

18n is about where i was thinking as well

[HURAKAN]

RECON on the way.