ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[Blown Away]

If this is true, OH CRAP!

Code: Select all

*   ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST       *
                    *        GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED            *
                    *      INVEST  AL922008  08/14/08  00 UTC   *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   [b]120[/b]
SHEAR (KTS)       11     3     3     2     3     9     4     8     6     8    12     9   [b]  9[/b]
SST (C)         28.4  28.4  28.5  28.5  28.6  28.8  28.8  28.8  28.9  29.0  29.2  29.4  [b]29.6[/b]

That may be very close to SFL at 120 hours.

[boca]

If this is true, OH CRAP!

Code: Select all

*   ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST       *
                    *        GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED            *
                    *      INVEST  AL922008  08/14/08  00 UTC   *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
SHEAR (KTS)       11     3     3     2     3     9     4     8     6     8    12     9     9
SST (C)         28.4  28.4  28.5  28.5  28.6  28.8  28.8  28.8  28.9  29.0  29.2  29.4  29.6


When you say oh crap do you mean the sst's or the lower shear?

[Derek Ortt]

2 am?!

Why so early in the morning?

because that is when this flight was tasked for

Its just a research flight though right? No LL HDOBs and maybe a few drops?

its surface to 14,000 feet

[Blown Away]

If this is true, OH CRAP!

Code: Select all

*   ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST       *
                    *        GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED            *
                    *      INVEST  AL922008  08/14/08  00 UTC   *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
SHEAR (KTS)       11     3     3     2     3     9     4     8     6     8    12     9     9
SST (C)         28.4  28.4  28.5  28.5  28.6  28.8  28.8  28.8  28.9  29.0  29.2  29.4  29.6


When you say oh crap do you mean the sst's or the lower shear?

Yes, only 9kt shear and 29.6C SST and possibly near SFL!

[hurricanefloyd5]

If this is true, OH CRAP!

Code: Select all

*   ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST       *
                    *        GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED            *
                    *      INVEST  AL922008  08/14/08  00 UTC   *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   [b]120[/b]
SHEAR (KTS)       11     3     3     2     3     9     4     8     6     8    12     9   [b]  9[/b]
SST (C)         28.4  28.4  28.5  28.5  28.6  28.8  28.8  28.8  28.9  29.0  29.2  29.4  [b]29.6[/b]

That may be very close to SFL at 120 hours.

2 things 1st it looks like it's refiring over the low center and 2nd if/when this forms then if it gets into the gulf stream then it could strenghten at a pretty good clip right??????????????

[HURAKAN]

If this is true, OH CRAP!

Code: Select all

*   ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST       *
                    *        GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED            *
                    *      INVEST  AL922008  08/14/08  00 UTC   *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
SHEAR (KTS)       11     3     3     2     3     9     4     8     6     8    12     9     9
SST (C)         28.4  28.4  28.5  28.5  28.6  28.8  28.8  28.8  28.9  29.0  29.2  29.4  29.6


When you say oh crap do you mean the sst's or the lower shear?

Both, but I knew about the SST.

[Ed Mahmoud]

The Hispaniola thing- sort of lose/lose. If a storm does hit the DR and Haiti, it badly disrupts the storm, and the storm may never recover. But we usually get reports of many deaths from mudslides and flash floods. If it stays off Hispaniola, it tends to be stronger when hitting Florida, but in the modern era, a hit on Florida almost certainly produces a much lower death toll.


Of course, a Jeanne scenario, where thousands die, and the storm is disrupted, but not enough to prevent regeneration, so it hits Florida anyway, I guess that is the ultimate lose/lose.

[Sanibel]

There's a lot to crunch like the W-E trough hanging down into the Gulf and 92's weakness not amounting to more than a low category down range. Normally a front will pull an approaching system up. The center burst jumped closer to the spiral center meaning better conditions or a stronger system.

Dr Lyons showed a good WV loop showing how 92 must clear the TUTT strung out before it. If it doesn't gain a little latitude it could risk the mountains of Hispaniola.

Edouard went E-W but didn't bomb out. We might risk an extrapolation and suggest lower category potential. This August GOM trough situation isn't normal. I don't think the Caribbean TUTT is either. Conditions might not be as favorable as expected.

[Gustywind]

http://www.weather.com/newscenter/tropical/
Chris Dolce, Lead Meteorologist, The Weather Channel
8:45 p.m. ET 8/13/2008
The disturbance closest to the United States is located about 200 miles east of the Leeward Islands and is moving toward the west-northwest at 10 to 15 mph. Showers and thunderstorms have flared during the day with this area of low pressure but are not currently collocated with the circulation center. This system will continue to be monitored and may eventually get into a better environment for development as it moves near or just north of Puerto Rico in about 36 hours. For this reason, residents of the Bahamas, Florida and the southeastern U.S. should monitor this system closely. In the Leeward Islands, expect increasing showers the next 36 hours.
Farther east, about 1400 miles east of the Leeward Islands, an area of low pressure has seen little change in organization today. Any development of this system will be slow as it plows westward at 10 to 15 mph well away from any land areas.

Another disturbance is just now pushing off the west coast of Africa several hundred miles southeast of the Cape Verde Islands. This system will also be monitored for development as it pushes westward across the Atlantic.

[Tertius]

The Hispaniola thing- sort of lose/lose. If a storm does hit the DR and Haiti, it badly disrupts the storm, and the storm may never recover. But we usually get reports of many deaths from mudslides and flash floods. If it stays off Hispaniola, it tends to be stronger when hitting Florida, but in the modern era, a hit on Florida almost certainly produces a much lower death toll.


Of course, a Jeanne scenario, where thousands die, and the storm is disrupted, but not enough to prevent regeneration, so it hits Florida anyway, I guess that is the ultimate lose/lose.

True, but Jeanne really took the scenic route after hitting the islands, giving her lots of time to regenerate. The question with 92L seems more to be whether it hits the islands at all on it's way toward SoFla, or if it just skirts them to the north. Until such time as a LLC can be pinpointed I think all the speculation either way is just so much whistling in the dark.

[HURAKAN]

[Fego]

Here what our friends in San Juan NWS are thinking..

weather.gov
National Weather Service

Area Forecast Discussion
Local weather forecast by "City, St" or zip code
Current Version
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31
[Printable]

Links in the discussion text will open a (small) new browser window with more information inside.
A more complete Weather Glossary is Available Here

000
FXCA62 TJSJ 140249
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1049 PM AST WED AUG 13 2008

.DISCUSSION...THE LEADING EDGE OF MOISTURE...AND STRONGER NELY
FLOW...ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE HAS SHIFTED
ACROSS THE LEEWARDS THIS EVENING AND IS JUST ABOUT TO REACH" onClick="return popup(this, 'notes')">REACH THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS ATTM. THESE FINE LINES OF SHOWERS AND SQUALLS WERE
MOVING WSW AT 18 KT AND ARE EXPECTED INTO THE E COAST OF PR AFTER
MIDNIGHT AND INTO THE SAN JUAN AREA ABOUT 06Z/02 AM LOCAL.
INCREASING WEATHER WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA DURING THE
DAY THURSDAY...AND THEN BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD...WITH WIND AND
PRECIP INTENSITY INCREASING THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE
WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. SELY FLOW BEHIND THE WAVE WILL
BRING ACTIVE WEATHER AFTER ITS PASSAGE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO AT LEAST
SATURDAY MORNING.

THE LAST SEVERAL VISIBLE STLT IMAGES TODAY SHOWED SQUALLS AND ARC
CLOUDS PROPAGATING NWD OUT OF MUCH OF THE NORTHERN SEMI CIRCLE OF
THIS WAVE...SUGGESTING THAT SAL IS STILL INFLUENCING...AND HELPING
TO INHIBIT INTENSIFICATION. TOO...PULSES OF DEEP CNVTN CONTINUE TO
FLARE UP PERIODICALLY INVOF A MID LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION...BUT
STLT DERIVED WINDS...SURFACE OBS...AND RECENT FULL AND PARTIAL
QUIKSCAT PASSES SUGGEST A LLVL CENTER CONTINUES A DEGREE OR TWO TO
THE SW OF THIS APPARENT MID LEVEL CIRCULATION. SAL...ALBEIT
SOMEWHAT SHALLOW...APPEARS TO HAVE WRAPPED ALL THE WAY AROUND
THIS CIRCULATION...AND THE STRETCH OR TILT IN THE VERTICAL IS NOT
ALLOWING THIS SYSTEM TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED...DESPITE SEEMINGLY
IMPROVED UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS. THE LLVL CIRCULATION CENTER WILL
LIKELY MOVE ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS...BUT IT
STILL REMAINS UNCERTAIN WHETHER SIGNIFICANT CNVTN WILL ACCOMPANY
IT...OR REMAIN OFFSHORE AND OVER THE LOCAL ATLC WATERS. MODEL
TRAJECTORIES HAVE BEEN TRENDING CLOSER TO N COAST OF PR PAST
RUNS...IN PART BY NHC CENTER FIXES BEING FARTHER SOUTH. SO THIS
FEATURE REMAINS POISED TO BRING BENEFICIAL RAINS TO THE LOCAL
AREA...AND POSSIBLY SOME MODEST FLOODING IN ISOLATED AREAS...BUT
IS STILL NOT YET SHOWING SIGNS OF SIGNIFICANT ORGANIZATION OR
INTENSIFICATION. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR...AND URGE ALL TO
PREPARE FOR A MODERATE RAIN EVENT...WITH GUSTY WINDS IN THE 25-35 KT
RANGE.

[Gustywind]

000
AWCA82 TJSJ 140228
RWSVI

WEATHER SUMMARY FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1100 PM AST WED AUG 13 2008


LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WELL AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE...
NEAR 60 WEST THIS EVENING...WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN DURING THE MORNING. THIS WILL INCREASE
THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION
ESPECIALLY TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY AND IN TURN INCREASING THE
LIKELIHOOD OF FLOODING ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS. THIS TROPICAL WAVE
COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AND
THEREFORE RESIDENTS AND VISITORS IN PUERTO RICO SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR ITS PROGRESS.

[Gustywind]

Here what our friends in San Juan NWS are thinking..

weather.gov
National Weather Service

Area Forecast Discussion
Local weather forecast by "City, St" or zip code
Current Version
Previous Version: 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
31
[Printable]

Links in the discussion text will open a (small) new browser window with more information inside.
A more complete Weather Glossary is Available Here

000
FXCA62 TJSJ 140249
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1049 PM AST WED AUG 13 2008

.DISCUSSION...THE LEADING EDGE OF MOISTURE...AND STRONGER NELY
FLOW...ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE HAS SHIFTED
ACROSS THE LEEWARDS THIS EVENING AND IS JUST ABOUT TO REACH" onClick="return popup(this, 'notes')">REACH THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS ATTM. THESE FINE LINES OF SHOWERS AND SQUALLS WERE
MOVING WSW AT 18 KT AND ARE EXPECTED INTO THE E COAST OF PR AFTER
MIDNIGHT AND INTO THE SAN JUAN AREA ABOUT 06Z/02 AM LOCAL.
INCREASING WEATHER WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA DURING THE
DAY THURSDAY...AND THEN BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD...WITH WIND AND
PRECIP INTENSITY INCREASING THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE
WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. SELY FLOW BEHIND THE WAVE WILL
BRING ACTIVE WEATHER AFTER ITS PASSAGE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO AT LEAST
SATURDAY MORNING.

THE LAST SEVERAL VISIBLE STLT IMAGES TODAY SHOWED SQUALLS AND ARC
CLOUDS PROPAGATING NWD OUT OF MUCH OF THE NORTHERN SEMI CIRCLE OF
THIS WAVE...SUGGESTING THAT SAL IS STILL INFLUENCING...AND HELPING
TO INHIBIT INTENSIFICATION. TOO...PULSES OF DEEP CNVTN CONTINUE TO
FLARE UP PERIODICALLY INVOF A MID LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION...BUT
STLT DERIVED WINDS...SURFACE OBS...AND RECENT FULL AND PARTIAL
QUIKSCAT PASSES SUGGEST A LLVL CENTER CONTINUES A DEGREE OR TWO TO
THE SW OF THIS APPARENT MID LEVEL CIRCULATION. SAL...ALBEIT
SOMEWHAT SHALLOW...APPEARS TO HAVE WRAPPED ALL THE WAY AROUND
THIS CIRCULATION...AND THE STRETCH OR TILT IN THE VERTICAL IS NOT
ALLOWING THIS SYSTEM TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED...DESPITE SEEMINGLY
IMPROVED UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS. THE LLVL CIRCULATION CENTER WILL
LIKELY MOVE ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS...BUT IT
STILL REMAINS UNCERTAIN WHETHER SIGNIFICANT CNVTN WILL ACCOMPANY
IT...OR REMAIN OFFSHORE AND OVER THE LOCAL ATLC WATERS. MODEL
TRAJECTORIES HAVE BEEN TRENDING CLOSER TO N COAST OF PR PAST
RUNS...IN PART BY NHC CENTER FIXES BEING FARTHER SOUTH. SO THIS
FEATURE REMAINS POISED TO BRING BENEFICIAL RAINS TO THE LOCAL
AREA...AND POSSIBLY SOME MODEST FLOODING IN ISOLATED AREAS...BUT
IS STILL NOT YET SHOWING SIGNS OF SIGNIFICANT ORGANIZATION OR
INTENSIFICATION. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR...AND URGE ALL TO
PREPARE FOR A MODERATE RAIN EVENT...WITH GUSTY WINDS IN THE 25-35 KT
RANGE.

Good colaboration my friend

[boca]

That winter type trough over the GOM and across North/Central Florida must be part of 92L's future steering pattern. Unless it just dissapates.

[shortwave]

The Hispaniola thing- sort of lose/lose. If a storm does hit the DR and Haiti, it badly disrupts the storm, and the storm may never recover. But we usually get reports of many deaths from mudslides and flash floods. If it stays off Hispaniola, it tends to be stronger when hitting Florida, but in the modern era, a hit on Florida almost certainly produces a much lower death toll.


Of course, a Jeanne scenario, where thousands die, and the storm is disrupted, but not enough to prevent regeneration, so it hits Florida anyway, I guess that is the ultimate lose/lose.

Glad to hear some reality. No matter what developes or doesn't yah think the focus would be on those potentially effected.
would be nice if all of them could be fish storms.

[Sanibel]

That winter type trough over the GOM and across North/Central Florida must be part of 92L's future steering pattern. Unless it just dissapates.

GFDL must see it because it recurves a 116 knot hurricane 75 miles off Florida.

[Derek Ortt]

a little surprised to see the convection weakening so quickly this evening

[Recurve]

Posted in models thread too, Sfla has had southwesterly/westerly flow for days. Here's the current Lower Keys wind profile:

[Sanibel]

If 92L follows its previous habits it will do another d-max come 6am or so.