ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[Blown Away]

I would say 5am at the earliest for potential upgrade. OMG, the SFL panic will set in because no matter what we will be in the 5 day error cone and I'm sure the will have 92L as a hurricane at the end. Going to get interesting.

[Category 5]

everyone


RECON IS GOING IN AT 2 A.M.

Isn't it just a research flight?

[gatorcane]

hey it looks to be heading more due west now, does anybody else concur?

[cheezyWXguy]

everyone


RECON IS GOING IN AT 2 A.M.

Maybe they see what I am seeing. What I think I am seeing is the BEGINNINGS of what may be the start of the llc relocating further north. Maybe Im crazy, but on what little I can see on nighttime visible, it looks like the inflow channel to the south maybe feeding in further to the east than before, suggesting that it maybe feeding into the convection. If that is the case, then a llc could form in the next 12-18 hours.

[shortwave]

? for everyone. Think the "center" will pass north or over the Domincan Republic?

[txag2005]

? for everyone. Think the "center" will pass north or over the Domincan Republic?

Wouldn't a direct pass over the DR result in tearing a formed storm up? That would be good news for Florida.

[CourierPR]

? for everyone. Think the "center" will pass north or over the Domincan Republic?

north

[Stratosphere747]

NOTE: THE AIR FORCE MISSIONS SCHEDULED FOR 13/18Z
AND 14/06Z AND THE P3 RESEARCH MISSION FOR 13/18Z
WERE CANX. THE P3 RESEARCH MISSION FOR 14/06Z WILL
GO AS SCHEDULED.

[cheezyWXguy]

hey it looks to be heading more due west now, does anybody else concur?

Its actually very hard to tell. When the deep bursts began to appear this afternoon, they were north of the llc, now they are spiralling southward into the mlc, which maybe causing the illusion of a w or wsw movement. It is not easy to tell as of now, because there is no llc center. But movement is likely somewhere between 270 and 285

[Recurve]

Oh crap.

Never wrote this off, took it seriously two days ago, then saw it nearly evaporate I thought when the northeastern burst fanned out this evening. Now the AVN loop is looking hotter/colder each frame.

I'll be glued to models for a while and I'm pretty sure rooting for a weakness in the high. Hope it can thread the needle through the Bahamas and exit up the gulfstream without touching anybody. I expect 18-36 hours to named storm now...only off by two days so far...I think I already gave it 18-24 hours to TD on Sunday or Monday.
Lot of long hours ahead, the slow agony of development followed by the crawling misery of the shifting cone.

Must fight urge to type in capital letters...

[gatorcane]

Yeah I know what you mean -- if you think about it, when was the last time the synoptic setup allowed a possible threat to SE Florida like this from a system passing Herbert box #1 from the ESE? It's been quite sometime. Jeanne and Frances were more East-Central Florida hits in my book.

But we all know that EVERYTHING needs to come together just right and more than likely something will not (whether it be dry air, a stronger-than-forecasted weakness in the ridge, etc) and South Florida and hopefully the Greater Antilles and Bahamas will dodge yet another bullet. That is what I am hoping for.

[T'Bonz]

*grumble!*

Tenacious thing.

I'm in no mood for a hurricane next week.

[deltadog03]

Well I mentioned the system tonight on the news during main weather. I said right now there are more questions then answers...lol

[Derek Ortt]

2 am?!

Why so early in the morning?

because that is when this flight was tasked for

[RL3AO]

2 am?!

Why so early in the morning?

because that is when this flight was tasked for

Its just a research flight though right? No LL HDOBs and maybe a few drops?

[cycloneye]

Peeps,check this long loop where you can see how has been the evolution of 92L until now.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SAT_ATL/animir.html

[ekal]

Looking better tonight. But, once the current convective burst dies down, a new burst will need to replace it if the organizational trend is to continue.

[tailgater]

Won't this shear west of it help keep it in check for the next couple of days?

[HURAKAN]

If this is true, OH CRAP!

Code: Select all

*   ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST       *
                    *        GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED            *
                    *      INVEST  AL922008  08/14/08  00 UTC   *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
SHEAR (KTS)       11     3     3     2     3     9     4     8     6     8    12     9     9
SST (C)         28.4  28.4  28.5  28.5  28.6  28.8  28.8  28.8  28.9  29.0  29.2  29.4  29.6


[Blown Away]

Looking at the last few frames on the IR doesn't it look like 92L picked up forward speed just N of due W.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-avn.html