ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[fci]

Has there every been a case where there were fewer TD's than named storms?

What I am looking for is a situation where a named storm was never classified as a TD.

[cycloneye]

Question to mets.Do you think that to advise the residents of the Northern Leewards,BVI,U.S VI and Puerto Rico to prepare,warnings can be up soon as there is not too much time?

[Category 5]

It won't dissipate...

that's what I said two days ago admist some criticism by some about its chances (same happened with Dolly)

Now that the environment is favorable it should be off to the races --- unfortunately

Theres alot of crow to be handed out if this becomes TD 6.

[wxman57]

I'd say it might be a TD right now. Obviously they can't say that until recon goes in tomorrow though.

No way! It doesn't even have a circulation center yet. Look at the surface observations for evidence of an LLC, not IR satellite imagery. There are surface observations west of the convection with a south wind. Surface pressures are 1-2MB higher near the convection than 100 miles to the west. But if this convection persists overnight it may develop an LLC beneath it and become a TD tomorrow.

[Gustywind]

The following post is NOT an official prognosis.

The southwesterly upper level divergence (shear) from the upper low to the northeast is diminishing, coinciding with 92L passing the center of the shear zone and the SE movement of the upper low. This is evident on WV imagery. Consequently, the primary divergence is now associated with the TUTT to the west of 92L, so the greatest ascent is occurring farther southwest. As a result, thunderstorms are developing farther southwest (closer to the weak surface low), and low level convergence is intensifying over the region of the strongest 850 mb low level vorticity. Note that the mid level circulation and low level circulation are nearly co-located, unlike the situation over the majority of the past few days. Currently, the LLC is displaced SW of the convection, and it is moving just north of due west per GOES IR2 imagery. Since the convection may likely maintain itself, it is possible that the LLC will reform slightly farther northeast under the convection. Overall, it is an evident reality that the LLC will not miss the Leewards, even if it reforms slightly farther NE. Steering at H5-H85 and the surface supports a track just N of due west over the islands. With the decent instability and ascent combined with localized orographic lifting, locally heavy precipitation and possible rockslides/mudslides may be hazards along elevated terrain. It appears that lingering shear will likely prevent organization to a TD prior to entering the Leewards. Islanders should remain alert for flooding hazards.

Since development will likely not occur prior to reaching the islands, it is possible that the system may come dangerously close to Hispaniola down the road. As the TUTT to the west continues to retrograde, upper level H5 ridging will expand very slightly westward, though it will be restricted by the longwave trough exiting the Northeastern United States. In the short term, there is a slight weakness at H5-H85. However, as I mentioned, the height contours may build slightly farther west over the next ~12 hours. With H7-H85 low level ridging suggesting a WNW/N of due west track, the system may skirt the northern coast of Hispaniola down the road, after impacting the Leewards.

Bump for islanders... I know you want a pertinent post for your region.

Tkanks a lot my friend, nice post, good reasoning, and since 5 pm St Marteen ( Northern Leewards) is on yellow alert meaning strong showers and showers added to thunderstorms with weather action for Friday, and the option for a TD friday given the latest weather forecast by our pro met of Meteo-France....
In Guadeloupe , no alert but higher chances to have some strong showers sometimes added with scattered thunderstorms locally....

[Cyclone1]

It won't dissipate...

that's what I said two days ago admist some criticism by some about its chances (same happened with Dolly)

Now that the environment is favorable it should be off to the races --- unfortunately

Theres alot of crow to be handed out if this becomes TD 6.

XD, and the best part, since you and I never called for dissipation, we'll be handing it out.

[Derek Ortt]

everyone


RECON IS GOING IN AT 2 A.M.

[Cyclone1]

2 am?!

Why so early in the morning?

[artist]

I have the crow ready!

[txag2005]

Are we looking at the NHC to up the status of this invest to red (50% or greater) at 11 PM EST?

[wxman57]

Question to mets.Do you think that to advise the residents of the Northern Leewards,BVI,U.S VI and Puerto Rico to prepare,warnings can be up soon as there is not too much time?

It's good to be prepared, but the convection is almost north of the Leeward islands already. At most, the northern Leeward Islands may be brushed by lower-end TS winds and a few squalls. VI and PR could see more, though it probably would be a passing TS and not a hurricane by the time it reached PR.

[gatorcane]

2 am?!

Why so early in the morning?

Well that tells me the NHC is becoming very interested in this thing (if they were not already)

[RL3AO]

Has there every been a case where there were fewer TD's than named storms?

What I am looking for is a situation where a named storm was never classified as a TD.

Maybe. Doesn't matter though. Each TC or STC is numbered. Edouard was 05L. The next TC will be 06L. Therefore it will be numbered TD Six if need be.

[Ivanhater]

I really didnt think it would take off until another day or 2 but it sure looks like its not waiting...

[wxman57]

Are we looking at the NHC to up the status of this invest to red (50% or greater) at 11 PM EST?

I upped ours to 60% in the past hour. That would be red in NHC's system. Looks impressive on satellite. Once it develops an LLC (tomorrow) it could develop quickly over the next few days.

[HURAKAN]

2 am?!

Why so early in the morning?

It's research, not the usual RECON.

[CourierPR]

2 am?!

Why so early in the morning?

One would assume, because there is a developing system very close to land.

[HURAKAN]

2 am?!

Why so early in the morning?

Well that tells me the NHC is becoming very interested in this thing (if they were not already)

It was already planned from yesterday.

[cycloneye]

I really didnt think it would take off until another day or 2 but it sure looks like its not waiting...

And looks like I will get it if not directly,a close call.

[RL3AO]

Isn't this just one of the mid altitude radar missions?