ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[tolakram]

Derek, if you see this, any chance of creating a high contrast infrared image and loop like RAMSDIS does? These loops are very nice to use at night for developing systems.

[HURAKAN]

[fasterdisaster]

I'd say it might be a TD right now. Obviously they can't say that until recon goes in tomorrow though.

[MiamiensisWx]

The following post is NOT an official prognosis.

The southwesterly upper level divergence (shear) from the upper low to the northeast is diminishing, coinciding with 92L passing the center of the shear zone and the SE movement of the upper low. This is evident on WV imagery. Consequently, the primary divergence is now associated with the TUTT to the west of 92L, so the greatest ascent is occurring farther southwest. As a result, thunderstorms are developing farther southwest (closer to the weak surface low), and low level convergence is intensifying over the region of the strongest 850 mb low level vorticity. Note that the mid level circulation and low level circulation are nearly co-located, unlike the situation over the majority of the past few days. Currently, the LLC is displaced SW of the convection, and it is moving just north of due west per GOES IR2 imagery. Since the convection may likely maintain itself, it is possible that the LLC will reform slightly farther northeast under the convection. Overall, it is an evident reality that the LLC will not miss the Leewards, even if it reforms slightly farther NE. Steering at H5-H85 and the surface supports a track just N of due west over the islands. With the decent instability and ascent combined with localized orographic lifting, locally heavy precipitation and possible rockslides/mudslides may be hazards along elevated terrain. It appears that lingering shear will likely prevent organization to a TD prior to entering the Leewards. Islanders should remain alert for flooding hazards.

Since development will likely not occur prior to reaching the islands, it is possible that the system may come dangerously close to Hispaniola down the road. As the TUTT to the west continues to retrograde, upper level H5 ridging will expand very slightly westward, though it will be restricted by the longwave trough exiting the Northeastern United States. In the short term, there is a slight weakness at H5-H85. However, as I mentioned, the height contours may build slightly farther west over the next ~12 hours. With H7-H85 low level ridging suggesting a WNW/N of due west track, the system may skirt the northern coast of Hispaniola down the road, after impacting the Leewards.

[fasterdisaster]

QUESTION: Dolly had no advisories as a depression so would this be TD 6 or TD 5?

[jlauderdal]

Here is radar view from the leeward islands. Should be interesting to see as our disturbance moves westward.

http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... SAIC2.html

By jfaul4820

[HURAKAN]

QUESTION: Dolly had no advisories as a depression so would this be TD 6 or TD 5?

TD 6. TD 5 was Dolly even though it skipped TD status.

[gatorcane]

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[/quote]

Hi folks just checking in -- 92L is developing as I expected -- no surprise with this one. As I said in my posts earlier today convection is on the increase and should not wane.

South Florida and Bahamas still my target and it should become a hurricane

[Honeyko]

(....wishing PR radar had a "vertical cross-section" view, wherein I could see how tall everything is as it passes by....)

The PR radar is a standard NEXRAD radar site, and so it will scan slices of the atmosphere just like any other NEXRAD radar site. Just fire up Level II data in any radar viewing software of your choice (level II viewer), and you'll get a reasonable "vertical cross-section" of the storm.

Any freeware titles you'd recommend?

[cheezyWXguy]

Derek, if you see this, any chance of creating a high contrast infrared image and loop like RAMSDIS does? These loops are very nice to use at night for developing systems.

Wow just look at that mlc...that is a really strong one. I would not be surprised to see that work its way down to the surface in the next 18-24 hours.

[HURAKAN]

The Fat Lady was told to go back home, no performance tonight!

[MiamiensisWx]

The following post is NOT an official prognosis.

The southwesterly upper level divergence (shear) from the upper low to the northeast is diminishing, coinciding with 92L passing the center of the shear zone and the SE movement of the upper low. This is evident on WV imagery. Consequently, the primary divergence is now associated with the TUTT to the west of 92L, so the greatest ascent is occurring farther southwest. As a result, thunderstorms are developing farther southwest (closer to the weak surface low), and low level convergence is intensifying over the region of the strongest 850 mb low level vorticity. Note that the mid level circulation and low level circulation are nearly co-located, unlike the situation over the majority of the past few days. Currently, the LLC is displaced SW of the convection, and it is moving just north of due west per GOES IR2 imagery. Since the convection may likely maintain itself, it is possible that the LLC will reform slightly farther northeast under the convection. Overall, it is an evident reality that the LLC will not miss the Leewards, even if it reforms slightly farther NE. Steering at H5-H85 and the surface supports a track just N of due west over the islands. With the decent instability and ascent combined with localized orographic lifting, locally heavy precipitation and possible rockslides/mudslides may be hazards along elevated terrain. It appears that lingering shear will likely prevent organization to a TD prior to entering the Leewards. Islanders should remain alert for flooding hazards.

Since development will likely not occur prior to reaching the islands, it is possible that the system may come dangerously close to Hispaniola down the road. As the TUTT to the west continues to retrograde, upper level H5 ridging will expand very slightly westward, though it will be restricted by the longwave trough exiting the Northeastern United States. In the short term, there is a slight weakness at H5-H85. However, as I mentioned, the height contours may build slightly farther west over the next ~12 hours. With H7-H85 low level ridging suggesting a WNW/N of due west track, the system may skirt the northern coast of Hispaniola down the road, after impacting the Leewards.

Bump for islanders... I know you want a pertinent post for your region.

[Derek Ortt]

QUESTION: Dolly had no advisories as a depression so would this be TD 6 or TD 5?

TD 6. TD 5 was Dolly even though it skipped TD status.

TD 5 was Edouard




*edited by sg to fix quote box

[stormchazer]

Somehow I do not think it is going to dissipate tonite. (Read sarcasm)

I wonder if the NHC is wishing they had sent recon. The Tropics sure can change in a hurry.

[RL3AO]

The next system is 06L.

[Derek Ortt]

regarding creating the high contrast loop,

I will look into that in the offseason. Maybe add a nighttime visible using the 3.9hZ imagery

[MiamiensisWx]

It won't dissipate...

[HURAKAN]

QUESTION: Dolly had no advisories as a depression so would this be TD 6 or TD 5?

TD 6. TD 5 was Dolly even though it skipped TD status.

TD 5 was Edouard

Very true. It was a TD for such a little time that I forgot. TD 4 was Dolly even though it skipped TD status




*edited by sg to fix quote box

[Cyclone1]

QUESTION: Dolly had no advisories as a depression so would this be TD 6 or TD 5?

TD 6

[gatorcane]

It won't dissipate...

that's what I said two days ago admist some criticism by some about its chances (same happened with Dolly)

Now that the environment is favorable it should be off to the races --- unfortunately