ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[Recurve]

Has been increasing dead ahead and decreasing some farther along.

[wxman57]

Remember that 700-400mb steering level wind and surface prog I posted earlier today that showed a blocking high north of Florida and a westerly track into the Gulf, though very weak? Here's another valid 18Z Monday. Same chart. I plotted the surface isobars to every 1/4 degree and the 700-400mb mean wind barbs. Note that steering currents are very light, but from the south near Florida and the Bahamas.



And here's the same chart valid 18Z Tuesday:

[CronkPSU]

Ok folks,lets return to our programming,oops,to the theme.

just wanted to take one more post to thank everyone for all their input, especially the mods and pros, this storm reminded me that i hadn't given yet to storm2K yet this year but I hope everyone who posts on here can contribute a little to help these guys out, their information is invaluable as storms approach

[gtsmith]

lighten this one up ... i wan to see that burst..


http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... al/280.jpg

in case it was nto done...here ya go:

[HURAKAN]

For those that may want to learn, you can also light up an image using PowerPoint.

[coreyl]

So what is going on with the steering of this wave? I thought it could enter the gulf?

[DESTRUCTION5]

Remember that 700-400mb steering level wind and surface prog I posted earlier today that showed a blocking high north of Florida and a westerly track into the Gulf, though very weak? Here's another valid 18Z Monday. Same chart. I plotted the surface isobars to every 1/4 degree and the 700-400mb mean wind barbs. Note that steering currents are very light, but from the south near Florida and the Bahamas.



And here's the same chart valid 18Z Tuesday:

Arent these the same charts that showed the "L" in the FL staights with a monster high to the North? Man how things change.

[Recurve]

When will we have a reliable development model? Somewhat OT, but 94L's an example.
Of course, close-in development is even more worrisome, and the dynamical models have been showing this puttering along and then bam! in some cases, close to where a whole lot of people would have to make preparations. If the actual cyclogenisis forecasting could be improved, coupled with the pretty damn good track forecasting of the consensus and model ensembles, we'd have something.

There is some research money coming, see http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2008/20080811_hurricanebudget.html
Back to 94L...

[tolakram]

/off topic

Irfanview

http://www.irfanview.com

I've used it for years, best darn freeware app for simple image manipulations available. If that's not good enough then Paint.Net should definitely do what you need.

http://www.getpaint.net/

also free and the source is available.

/apologies

[cheezyWXguy]

UPDATE: There has just been a very strong new burst of convection in the latest satelite image. It is just south of the one we saw just before the sun went down. It is also stronger than that one. This maybe one of the last times this system experiences the dmin. If this blob does expand to become another pseudo CDO, then I think theres the potential for a new llc to form underneath it tonight and tomorrow.

[Aric Dunn]

[cycloneye]

[cheezyWXguy]

I see someone else has noticed it too

[Dean4Storms]

92L does seem to be organizing a bit, although it has a long way to go.

[wxman57]

Arent these the same charts that showed the "L" in the FL staights with a monster high to the North? Man how things change.

It wasn't a "monster high". Remember, the isobars are plotted every 1/4 of a millibar. But the models are changing and now NOT showing the high north of the system.

[artist]

Enough with the jokes. Offending others I don't believe is allowed.

[lonelymike]

Arent these the same charts that showed the "L" in the FL staights with a monster high to the North? Man how things change.

It wasn't a "monster high". Remember, the isobars are plotted every 1/4 of a millibar. But the models are changing and now NOT showing the high north of the system.

So if I understand you correctly this has a decent shot at going up the east coast?

[cheezyWXguy]

Arent these the same charts that showed the "L" in the FL staights with a monster high to the North? Man how things change.

It wasn't a "monster high". Remember, the isobars are plotted every 1/4 of a millibar. But the models are changing and now NOT showing the high north of the system.

So if I understand you correctly this has a decent shot at going up the east coast?

Theres a chance, but its more likely to hit between south florida and northern south carolina. I cant see it going any further north than that.

[Aric Dunn]

http://mkwc.ifa.hawaii.edu/satellite/sa ... overlay=on

[HURAKAN]