Tropical Storm Fay Model Runs

[gatorcane]

Oh you are talking about that kind of hook? I was thinking a hook from the south bending to the NW then NNE.

But yeah it has to develop first.

[KWT]

Hard to say, wxman57 said steernig currents become weak and from the looks of the models I won't disagree, the worry is this system does make it into the gulf and does slow right down right before landfall, thats the worst case IMO.

[Derek Ortt]

dont have the EURO vorticity on GARP

[Aric Dunn]

euro ... alternative

better in my opion

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMW ... floop.html

oh there is your vort derek

[Ed Mahmoud]

euro ... alternative

better in my opion

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMW ... floop.html

oh there is your vort derek

That does show it feeding something into 92L from the South. I still say it is related to the UK Mets mystery cyclone. At least it doesn't tear up Colombia too badly.

Code: Select all

TROPICAL STORM DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION :

11.5N  73.6W



  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY

  --------------     --------     --------        --------

 12UTC 13.08.2008  11.5N  73.6W     WEAK

 00UTC 14.08.2008  10.5N  70.2W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE

 12UTC 14.08.2008  11.1N  71.2W     WEAK     WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

 00UTC 15.08.2008  11.5N  74.0W     WEAK    INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

 12UTC 15.08.2008  11.6N  73.5W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE

 00UTC 16.08.2008  10.6N  70.0W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE

 12UTC 16.08.2008        BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH


[deltadog03]

Was thinking something possibly like... A wnw then NW track then maybe hook west back into florida.

[gatorcane]

Was thinking something possibly like... A wnw then NW track then maybe hook west back into florida.

Hey Deltadog, so you are expecting a small weakness to develop and then get filled in by another ridge? Just wondering what your reasoning is with this forecast.

Thx

[Recurve]

Not an official or skillful forecast:
Because of the consistency and agreement, I'm confident in the models' track of a storm like Floyd, approaching Florida but lifting before the Sfla coast.
However, it's too far out to know if the high builds back and we even have a possible Betsy-like about face.

[Aric Dunn]

look at the TRAIN lol 1 2 3

[cycloneye]

The runs for the new wave are being posted at the thread for that wave at Talking Tropics.

[Aric Dunn]

The runs for the new wave are being posted at the thread for that wave at Talking Tropics.

i know .. but 92l is in that image too ..

[deltadog03]

Does the GFS finally show a closed low with 92? lol Yes, I think the ridge will ultimately build in over the top to try and block this in.

[wxman57]

Here's a plot of quite a few different models, including the consensus and corrected consensus model runs. It's pretty clear that there's agreement in a NW-N turn around day 4. Question is, does the turn come before, at, or west of Florida?

[KWT]

Yep thats the big question, the ECM makes the turn right over Florida whilst those other models start to turn it more NW around the Bahamas, if it does survive and develop looks like the whole east coast may need to watch...

[Blown Away]

Here's a plot of quite a few different models, including the consensus and corrected consensus model runs. It's pretty clear that there's agreement in a NW-N turn around day 4. Question is, does the turn come before, at, or west of Florida?

Just this morning you had the low plotted through the Keys/Straits into the Gulf and less than 12 hours later it's turning north east of SFL?

[Nimbus]

I'm wonder how storm intensity would effect the model trend?
If this strengthens more than expected does it pump up the ridge, or is a strengthening system more likely to amplify the steering weakness/ trough?

[coreyl]

Here's a plot of quite a few different models, including the consensus and corrected consensus model runs. It's pretty clear that there's agreement in a NW-N turn around day 4. Question is, does the turn come before, at, or west of Florida?

Just this morning you had the low plotted through the Keys/Straits into the Gulf and less than 12 hours later it's turning north east of SFL?

I was thinking the same thing.

[Dean4Storms]

Please everyone keep in mind these models will change to some degree or another. Don't let any one run this far out set your mind into thinking that this run or that previous run had/has the better handle on 92L. it doesn't.

For now we haven't even got a TC and all we can say with some surety is that it will move WNW over the next couple of days no matter its depth.

[Vortex]

18Z NOGAPS-South florida

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... 2008081318

[JPmia]

Please everyone keep in mind these models will change to some degree or another. Don't let any one run this far out set your mind into thinking that this run or that previous run had/has the better handle on 92L. it doesn't.

For now we haven't even got a TC and all we can say with some surety is that it will move WNW over the next couple of days no matter its depth.

And lest we not keep in mind that the big island of the Dominican Republic is within the lines of a few of those models plots so that could have some influence as well...getting interesting indeed