ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[cycloneye]

Winds are from the north in Guadeloupe.

Code: Select all

Conditions at  Aug 13, 2008 - 06:00 PM EDTAug 13, 2008 - 05:00 PM CDTAug 13, 2008 - 04:00 PM MDTAug 13, 2008 - 03:00 PM PDTAug 13, 2008 - 02:00 PM ADTAug 13, 2008 - 01:00 PM HDT
2008.08.13 2200 UTC 
Wind  from the N (010 degrees) at 6 MPH (5 KT) 
Visibility  greater than 7 mile(s) 
Sky conditions  partly cloudy 
Temperature  80 F (27 C) 
Dew Point  75 F (24 C) 
Relative Humidity  83% 
Pressure (altimeter)  29.85 in. Hg (1011 hPa) 
ob  TFFR 132200Z 01005KT 9999 SCT023 SCT260 27/24 Q1011 TEMPO SHRA 

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[abajan]

winds now NW at dominica
http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/TDCF.html

nnw in quadaloupe

Have a look at Barbados' winds. 92L certainly ain't dead. Not by a long shot.

[HURAKAN]

[Recurve]

Has anyone commented on shear or opposing flow to the northwest from the ULL diminshing. I see less although there is still some flattening of the clouds to the NW.
Otherwise this disturbance looks very diffuse

[Weatherboy1]

Speaking of the first day of school coming up in FL, I remember school was supposed to start here in Palm Beach County the morning Andrew hit in '92. My first day of junior year got delayed by a day, and then the storm turned out to be not much of anything for northern PBC where I live. I went to the beach a little after first light and the thing that struck me was all the helicopters flying south overhead. They were on their way to film/check out the real devastation much farther south. (And no, I am not saying this storm will be Andrew ... just sharing a first day of school recollection prompted by an earlier post.)

[Recurve]

Man, there is almost no convection now.
At least the islands to the west and southwest appear to have been spared, but may get a little beneficial rain.

[Steve]

For Aric (lightened up):

[deltadog03]

Does a pro met want to comment about the symmetric outflow we are mentioning above -- seems it is much more pronounced now then it has ever been

Thx

Gator, I was just about to comment on that. I havn't really paid attention to that until just a sec. ago. The symmetry is looking much better today. You can clearly tell that its atleast under the western part of the ridge that is centered to its east. Outflow looks to be trying to expand in all quads. (the west side being the worst) One more note as well...WXman's correct in that there is a SFC low to the SW of the main action. I am a bit suprised its still showing/swirling around. I would think that should die off soon, and allow for something to try and take off over the main show. Convection is a little down, but 2 things for me show me that it might start to go upward... The outflow and low level inflow is much better today.

[Javlin]

I do not know about a closed LLC with this but there sure appears to some low level turning going on.I would think like most here should this continue maybe in the next 24-48 hrs something might prevail.

[Aric Dunn]

Does a pro met want to comment about the symmetric outflow we are mentioning above -- seems it is much more pronounced now then it has ever been

Thx

Gator, I was just about to comment on that. I havn't really paid attention to that until just a sec. ago. The symmetry is looking much better today. You can clearly tell that its atleast under the western part of the ridge that is centered to its east. Outflow looks to be expanding in all quads.

east..... ?? well iguees it all depends on where we decide to place the center..

other wise it is right on top of the convection..

[HURAKAN]

Weak convection but still there. Like many have said, development shouldn't be expected in the short term.

[Derek Ortt]

we'll know mroe about what is going on when the NOAA plane flies later this evening

[Steve H.]

I don't know. In my opinion 92L has gotten much better organized during the last few hours, with the banding structure beginning to take shape and some dark oranges showing up on IR near the less broad center. I'm hoping shear will come back and tear this thing up or land interaction will do the same before it gets near Cuba or Bahamas. Getting nervous here in Central Florida, its just starting to get that look about it. I fear it will stay just north of the islands.

[wxman57]

Any low pressure center is still 150+ miles west of that convective burst, so there can be no outflow on the "west side". There is some westerly-moving cirrus outflow well east of the low pressure area. That's about it. It's no better organized than this morning. In fact, it may be less organized than this morning. There is no low center forming anywhere near that convection. Here's a 21Z surface plot with a satellite overlay. The area of low pressure is circled in red, with the approximate center of lower pressure at the crosshairs. This is in line with the NHC initialization of the center at 18z (extrapolated to 21Z). It's a long, long way away from becoming a TD.

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/92Lg.gif

Im sorry wxman, but I see absolutely nothing in that area. Who knows? There could be no "center" at all. But really,I do think that in the next 24 hours we could see a center begin to form under the deep convection as long is it persists, as it is doing now. There are some reds in that tiny new burst everyone is going nuts over.

Ignore the satellite image, look at the actual surface observations. They don't lie. There's no low near the convection, it's an elongated low 150-175 miles west of the convection. I would have put it farther north except for that due east wind near 16.9N/58.8W, by the way. Now, it's certainly possible that a new low center could form farther east closer to that convective burst, but I see no sign of that happening now. Convection remains very weak and scattered. Give it another 24-48 hours.

[Recurve]

Current steering suggests westerly path if it gets going a little. but what's ahead?

[storms in NC]

I think tonight will tell all. It looks like it is going to hold on to what it has. So I think we shall see 92L burst again tonight and become bigger.JMO.


Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.[/quote]

It is still moving WNW and some NW at times today. It should start to see some more of a west movement in the next 12-24 hours. It is going to be a tough call. it will all depends if 92L gets picked up by the front that is moving off the coast now. If it does it could be caught on the other side of the ridge and not on the south side of the ridge. It could bring 92 a long the east coast of Fl and Ga then on out to sea. But all this is JMO Only. Now it is only wait and see time.

[HURAKAN]

Looks like same ol' 92L.

[CronkPSU]

Speaking of the first day of school coming up in FL, I remember school was supposed to start here in Palm Beach County the morning Andrew hit in '92. My first day of junior year got delayed by a day, and then the storm turned out to be not much of anything for northern PBC where I live. I went to the beach a little after first light and the thing that struck me was all the helicopters flying south overhead. They were on their way to film/check out the real devastation much farther south. (And no, I am not saying this storm will be Andrew ... just sharing a first day of school recollection prompted by an earlier post.)

they moved the school calendars back two weeks last year in part because of Andrew and Charlie and their impact on school schedules...Charlie came during the end of the first week of school (opening night of the Olympics as well)

[Recurve]

Shear has been cranking up to the NW of the convection. Maybe reponsible for some of the cirrus outflow appearance?

[Ed Mahmoud]

Surface obs don't lie about the surface.


But what if there is something closer to the convection, working its way down? Just got a feeling the satellite is showing us something. Not there yet, but getting better.