ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

Sanibel · #1801 Postby **Sanibel** » Wed Aug 13, 2008 4:19 pm

Well, if you look at that "shield" arc to the west of the system, like a sheared wave axis, that is telling you 92 is pushing against upper unfavorability and can't get all its levels stacked to pull it all together. I fully expect another d-max from that round (and round is important here) pseudo-CDO convection area. Probably sooner and more frequent now.

#1802 Postby **cycloneye** » Wed Aug 13, 2008 4:20 pm

robbielyn wrote:what happened to 93L? It disappeared or is it in the process of being upgraded? Hey Mike good to hear from ya again

93L was deactivated.It may well be again back if the system reorganizes.The thread is at Talking tropics forum.

#1803 Postby **Blown Away** » Wed Aug 13, 2008 4:21 pm

Think we will have Code RED at the 8pm update?

KWT · #1804 Postby **KWT** » Wed Aug 13, 2008 4:23 pm

Yeah convection is decaying but its taking longer. With each burst it slowly gets a little closere, we saw the exact same thing with pre-Dolly, eventually it will fire up one big burst and a circulation will form from that

SouthFLTropics · #1805 Postby **SouthFLTropics** » Wed Aug 13, 2008 4:24 pm

I'll put my money that NHC will stay with Code Orange at 8:00PM...Speaking of putting money down...is Vegas giving odds on 92L??? Lately this thing has seemed like a prize fight... It's developing, it isn't, it is, it isn't... :yesno:

#1806 Postby **HURAKAN** » Wed Aug 13, 2008 4:25 pm

Outflow in the western side?

Aric Dunn · #1807 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Wed Aug 13, 2008 4:25 pm

AAAAWWWWW look at the happy outflow thats expanding in all directions ..
its so happy

it will help in the formation of convection though..

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-rgb.html

#1808 Postby **storms in NC** » Wed Aug 13, 2008 4:26 pm

Blown_away wrote:Think we will have Code RED at the 8pm update?

Who did the codes last year? I did enjoy them

Aric Dunn · #1809 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Wed Aug 13, 2008 4:26 pm

HURAKAN wrote:

Outflow in the western side?

you beat me

Sanibel · #1810 Postby **Sanibel** » Wed Aug 13, 2008 4:27 pm

Good point Hurakan. Outflow on that sheared side is a sign that air is flowing upward in the pre-CDO. Cyclonic engine just kicked on? Feather outflow is the sign of...

DESTRUCTION5 · #1811 Postby **DESTRUCTION5** » Wed Aug 13, 2008 4:27 pm

SUN-TUE...WAVE CURRENTLY EAST OF THE ANTILLES CONTINUES TO SHOW A
POTENTIAL FOR FURTHER ORGANIZATION WHILE SKIRTING THE CARIBBEAN.
SATELLITE IMAGERY DURING THE PAST 4 TO 6 HOURS IS INDICATING MORE
PERSISTENT CONVECTION...WHICH HAD BEEN VERY DISORGANIZED OVERNIGHT
DUE TO AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO LESSEN IN
THE AREA AND GLOBAL SOLNS CONTINUE TO INDICATE VARYING DEGREES OF
DEVELOPMENT WITH THE GFS/UKMET MAINTAINING WAVE STATUS OVER AT
LEAST THE NEXT 36 HOURS. ECMWF CONTINUES A MORE ROBUST TENDENCY IN
DEVELOPMENT. SYSTEM EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN SOME TYPE OF PRESENCE
EITHER AS A STRONG WAVE OR PERHAPS CLOSED LOW WHILE MOVING
GENERALLY TOWARD THE TURKS AND CAICOS BY SATURDAY. CURRENT HPC/NHC
COORD TRACK IN THE MEDIUM RANGE INDICATING A SPOT LOW NEAR THE FL
STRAITS JUSTIFIES CLOSE MONITORING SHOULD SYSTEM DEVELOP.

WILL SHOW ONSHORE CONDITIONS ASCD WITH LIGHT GRADIENT FLOW EARLY
IN THE WEEK WITH POPS INITIALLY LOW END SCT COVERAGE SUBJECT TO
PROXIMITY OF ABOVE SYSTEM. MEDIUM RANGE OUTLOOK WL REMAIN HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN FOR NOW.

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/product.phpsite ... glossary=1

Melbourne chimes in...

#1812 Postby **gatorcane** » Wed Aug 13, 2008 4:27 pm

I don't see any issues with dry air impeding it. Plenty of moisture available:

Aric Dunn · #1813 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Wed Aug 13, 2008 4:28 pm

runt ro !!!! suns going down .. but nice burst starting possibly
latest 21:15

#1814 Postby **shortwave** » Wed Aug 13, 2008 4:28 pm

Still noticing a very elliptical low. I've heard once or twice how land can help to tighten the focus of a developing center. Any thoughts as to why anyone thinks it may or may not consolidate?

#1815 Postby **cycloneye** » Wed Aug 13, 2008 4:30 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:runt ro !!!! suns going down .. but nice burst starting possibly
latest 21:15

That outflow was not seen yesterday at this time.

#1816 Postby **HURAKAN** » Wed Aug 13, 2008 4:31 pm

KWT · #1817 Postby **KWT** » Wed Aug 13, 2008 4:31 pm

Ah yes there is outflow on that western side, does seem like that convection will be the focus for any LLC to try and develop.

terrapintransit · #1818 Postby **terrapintransit** » Wed Aug 13, 2008 4:31 pm

cycloneye wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:runt ro !!!! suns going down .. but nice burst starting possibly
latest 21:15

That outflow was not seen yesterday at this time.

Here we go...........

Aric Dunn · #1819 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Wed Aug 13, 2008 4:32 pm

I'll say it again you dont get a much better upper high than this .....

hhhhhhhmmmmmmmm........... placement is great if a low would close of under that.. than we would have some issues...

Swimdude · #1820 Postby **Swimdude** » Wed Aug 13, 2008 4:32 pm

Well! 92L seems to be holding its own pretty well this evening. It definitely didn't die overnight...

ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

Re: ATL: Invest 92L in Central Atlantic

Re: ATL: Invest 92L in Central Atlantic

Re: ATL: Invest 92L in Central Atlantic

Re: ATL: Invest 92L in Central Atlantic

Re: ATL: Invest 92L in Central Atlantic

Re:

Re: ATL: Invest 92L in Central Atlantic

Re: ATL: Invest 92L in Central Atlantic

Re: ATL: Invest 92L in Central Atlantic

Re: ATL: Invest 92L in Central Atlantic

Re: ATL: Invest 92L in Central Atlantic

Re: ATL: Invest 92L in Central Atlantic

Who is online