ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[CourierPR]

Look at all the WSW winds across Southern FL --- shows the H5 ridge has not quite built in yet and troughiness is dominating the EC still:

W PALM BEACH PTSUNNY 92 70 48 W12G20 29.89F HX 97
FT LAUDER-EXEC MOSUNNY 93 67 42 SW14G22 29.90F HX 96
FT LAUDERDALE MOSUNNY 94 67 41 SW10G20 29.90F HX 97
POMPANO BEACH MOSUNNY 93 68 43 W13 29.90F HX 97
PEMBROKE PINES MOSUNNY 93 68 43 W13G21 29.93F HX 97
OPA LOCKA SUNNY 93 66 40 SW13G20 29.92F HX 96
MIAMI PTSUNNY 93 69 45 SW13 29.92F HX 98
WEST KENDALL MOSUNNY 91 70 49 W13 29.92F HX 96
HOMESTEAD MOSUNNY 91 76 61 SW12G17 29.93F HX 102

We had no pm thunderstorms today so something may be changing.

[alienstorm]

Well one thing is for certain, it will go through "Herbert Box" not good for us in Florida

[gatorcane]

Look at all the WSW winds across Southern FL --- shows the H5 ridge (Bermuda High) has not quite built in yet off the EC and troughiness is dominating the EC still.

It's a little hard to believe the pattern will just change to open up the door to anything tropical from the East but most of the models are in good agreement of it changing over the next few days.

W PALM BEACH PTSUNNY 92 70 48 W12G20 29.89F HX 97
FT LAUDER-EXEC MOSUNNY 93 67 42 SW14G22 29.90F HX 96
FT LAUDERDALE MOSUNNY 94 67 41 SW10G20 29.90F HX 97
POMPANO BEACH MOSUNNY 93 68 43 W13 29.90F HX 97
PEMBROKE PINES MOSUNNY 93 68 43 W13G21 29.93F HX 97
OPA LOCKA SUNNY 93 66 40 SW13G20 29.92F HX 96
MIAMI PTSUNNY 93 69 45 SW13 29.92F HX 98
WEST KENDALL MOSUNNY 91 70 49 W13 29.92F HX 96
HOMESTEAD MOSUNNY 91 76 61 SW12G17 29.93F HX 102

reposting after edit

[Extremeweatherguy]

Looking at the visible loop, the inflow pattern seems to suggest that the low to mid level circulation center is still on the west side of the convection. It does not appear to be quite as far west as it was earlier in the day though, so perhaps this means that the convection is trying to slowly catch up to where the low to mid level spin is.

[Vortex]

center of the picture ... another burst starting ... right where we want convection to start firing

the symetry will smooth over later with the improving environment aloft.

[artist]

Look at all the WSW winds across Southern FL --- shows the H5 ridge (Bermuda High) has not quite built in yet off the EC and troughiness is dominating the EC still.

It's a little hard to believe the pattern will just change to open up the door to anything tropical from the East.

W PALM BEACH PTSUNNY 92 70 48 W12G20 29.89F HX 97
FT LAUDER-EXEC MOSUNNY 93 67 42 SW14G22 29.90F HX 96
FT LAUDERDALE MOSUNNY 94 67 41 SW10G20 29.90F HX 97
POMPANO BEACH MOSUNNY 93 68 43 W13 29.90F HX 97
PEMBROKE PINES MOSUNNY 93 68 43 W13G21 29.93F HX 97
OPA LOCKA SUNNY 93 66 40 SW13G20 29.92F HX 96
MIAMI PTSUNNY 93 69 45 SW13 29.92F HX 98
WEST KENDALL MOSUNNY 91 70 49 W13 29.92F HX 96
HOMESTEAD MOSUNNY 91 76 61 SW12G17 29.93F HX 102

hot dry sw wind and heat here in WPB which is miserable

[CourierPR]

Well one thing is for certain, it will go through "Herbert Box" not good for us in Florida

I believe that's the Hebert Box as in a-bear.

[Sanibel]

The surface-mid spiral looks slightly better but is still overall unimpressive.

hot dry sw wind and heat here in WPB which is miserable

Nice SW wind off the Warm Gulf here.

[ekal]

NOT an official forecast. Not endorsed by any professional organization or by Storm2k. Always rely on NHC and NWS for official products.

The structure of this system has not improved much over yesterday. There is still a weak, broad LLC turning to the southwest of the deeper convection (note the west wind in Dominica). The convection itself is supported by a weak MLC and enhanced upper-level divergence.

I see no evidence of a LLC developing under the deep convection. The low clouds are all moving from south to north in that area, in association with the lower-level jet on the backside of the LLC to the southwest.

Now, I am not writing this system off. I believe it will develop, but don't expect it to get its act together today. Maybe not tomorrow, either. However, I see high development chances beyond that time period as upper-level winds weaken.

It is a wait-and-see game.

[jlauderdal]

Look at all the WSW winds across Southern FL --- shows the H5 ridge (Bermuda High) has not quite built in yet off the EC and troughiness is dominating the EC still.

It's a little hard to believe the pattern will just change to open up the door to anything tropical from the East.

W PALM BEACH PTSUNNY 92 70 48 W12G20 29.89F HX 97
FT LAUDER-EXEC MOSUNNY 93 67 42 SW14G22 29.90F HX 96
FT LAUDERDALE MOSUNNY 94 67 41 SW10G20 29.90F HX 97
POMPANO BEACH MOSUNNY 93 68 43 W13 29.90F HX 97
PEMBROKE PINES MOSUNNY 93 68 43 W13G21 29.93F HX 97
OPA LOCKA SUNNY 93 66 40 SW13G20 29.92F HX 96
MIAMI PTSUNNY 93 69 45 SW13 29.92F HX 98
WEST KENDALL MOSUNNY 91 70 49 W13 29.92F HX 96
HOMESTEAD MOSUNNY 91 76 61 SW12G17 29.93F HX 102

hot dry sw wind and heat here in WPB which is miserable

this pattern was supposed to break down last weekend and so far it hasnt, time will tell but for now its all WSW

[MWatkins]

Sigh. I have to bring this up...

It's not collapsing. It's not strengthening. 92L is in a steady state. I simply do not understand or how anyone can take 3 hours of a satellite loop and declare one or the other, when it's neither. These types of systems change over 12 and 24 hour increments, not hours.

There are people here trying to put the puzzle together and find signs of either, and that's cool. That's what the board is here for. However, no one knows. None of us REALLY know.

There are signs the upper pattern is getting a bit more favorable now. There is no evidence that the system is simply going to go away. The convection will weaken some, then will come back again just like this last burst did. It's part of the process.

Maybe we are used to "on demand" TV and podcasts etc. I have no idea...but the tropics don't work that way. There is no fast forward button. It's a long season, and a lot of time in between important data points. Everyone has to be patient.

This "it's dying"/"it's not" debate should change to a discussion of ideas and facts, not opinions on what the system "should do". Could we concentrate on the measurable facts, signs and clues the atmosphere is giving us and talk about those for a while? I am sure that will help the many new faces reading the board for the first time...

MW

[Extremeweatherguy]

ekal - great analysis. I agree with nearly everything you just said.

[JonathanBelles]

Did ya have to quote that twice?

[cycloneye]

Sigh. I have to bring this up...

It's not collapsing. It's not strengthening. 92L is in a steady state. I simply do not understand or how anyone can take 3 hours of a satellite loop and declare one or the other, when it's neither. These types of systems change over 12 and 24 hour increments, not hours.

There are people here trying to put the puzzle together and find signs of either, and that's cool. That's what the board is here for. However, no one knows. None of us REALLY know.

There are signs the upper pattern is getting a bit more favorable now. There is no evidence that the system is simply going to go away. The convection will weaken some, then will come back again just like this last burst did. It's part of the process.

Maybe we are used to "on demand" TV and podcasts etc. I have no idea...but the tropics don't work that way. There is no fast forward button. It's a long season, and a lot of time in between important data points. Everyone has to be patient.

This "it's dying"/"it's not" debate should change to a discussion of ideas and facts, not opinions on what the system "should do". Could we concentrate on the measurable facts, signs and clues the atmosphere is giving us and talk about those for a while? I am sure that will help the many new faces reading the board for the first time...

MW

Excellent words Mike.

[Aric Dunn]

Sigh. I have to bring this up...

It's not collapsing. It's not strengthening. 92L is in a steady state. I simply do not understand or how anyone can take 3 hours of a satellite loop and declare one or the other, when it's neither. These types of systems change over 12 and 24 hour increments, not hours.

There are people here trying to put the puzzle together and find signs of either, and that's cool. That's what the board is here for. However, no one knows. None of us REALLY know.

There are signs the upper pattern is getting a bit more favorable now. There is no evidence that the system is simply going to go away. The convection will weaken some, then will come back again just like this last burst did. It's part of the process.

Maybe we are used to "on demand" TV and podcasts etc. I have no idea...but the tropics don't work that way. There is no fast forward button. It's a long season, and a lot of time in between important data points. Everyone has to be patient.

This "it's dying"/"it's not" debate should change to a discussion of ideas and facts, not opinions on what the system "should do". Could we concentrate on the measurable facts, signs and clues the atmosphere is giving us and talk about those for a while? I am sure that will help the many new faces reading the board for the first time...

MW

MR> MIKE WATKINS EVERYBODY ( CLAPS CLAPS CLAPS)

how are you, have not talked you in a while.

how abouts those clouds out there ?? them there things sure are peeerrrtty..

[sunnyday]

As always, Mike is right on target. Please continue with your excellent advice; I really appreciate you and your wise words.

[MiamiensisWx]

Sigh. I have to bring this up...

It's not collapsing. It's not strengthening. 92L is in a steady state. I simply do not understand or how anyone can take 3 hours of a satellite loop and declare one or the other, when it's neither. These types of systems change over 12 and 24 hour increments, not hours.

There are people here trying to put the puzzle together and find signs of either, and that's cool. That's what the board is here for. However, no one knows. None of us REALLY know.

There are signs the upper pattern is getting a bit more favorable now. There is no evidence that the system is simply going to go away. The convection will weaken some, then will come back again just like this last burst did. It's part of the process.

Maybe we are used to "on demand" TV and podcasts etc. I have no idea...but the tropics don't work that way. There is no fast forward button. It's a long season, and a lot of time in between important data points. Everyone has to be patient.

This "it's dying"/"it's not" debate should change to a discussion of ideas and facts, not opinions on what the system "should do". Could we concentrate on the measurable facts, signs and clues the atmosphere is giving us and talk about those for a while? I am sure that will help the many new faces reading the board for the first time...

MW

Thank you for the voice of reason, Mike!

I'll reiterate one of my preceding posts.

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=59&t=102418&p=1766609&hilit=#p1766609

"Personally, I concur with wxman57's assessment in regards to the location of a weak surface low. The surface low is displaced SW of the convection and the best LL convergence. Currently, the MLC and broad, ill defined LLC (denoted by the weak closed surface low) are not co-located; however, this was not unexpected, and everything is unfolding as I anticipated. The system is currently experiencing the strongest upper level shear near the middle of the shear zone via the upper low to the northeast. Therefore, convection that attempts to develop over the surface low is sheared by the strong UL divergence. Additionally, LL convergence is meager in the immediate vicinity of the surface low. If you recall my comments over the past few days, I was insisting that this system would pass north of the Greater Antilles, but it would not miss the Leeward Islands. GOES visible imagery clearly indicates the surface low is moving north of due west toward the Leeward Islands.

As shear decreases over the next 24-48 hours (and the 300 mb anticyclone builds), it is likely that one of two scenarios may occur.

1. Convection develops directly over the current surface low, as the location of the best ascent shifts southwest.

2. The surface low may reform farther northeast in the vicinity of the greatest 850 mb LL vorticity. Low level convergence may be greatest in that vicinity (in the location of the current convection) down the line, so a LLC may form in the vicinity as well (as a new surface low develops).

Overall, both scenarios and H7-H85 streamline analysis suggests a track across the Leewards, bringing localized precipitation to the islands. Later, a track just north of the Greater Antilles seems reasonable.

Summary: I anticipate that the first stages of development may commence within 24-48 hours. Don't expect anything prior to that time frame. One of the aforementioned scenarios will likely occur within the next 24-48 hours as well."

I completely agree with ekal's synopsis as well.

[storms in NC]

Yesterday about this time 92L was looking very bad. Today it is staying better together and has build nicely. No not a TD yet but getting there. It should get most of its self together till it does make up it mine what it want to do.

[Weatherboy1]

The "popcorn"-looking storms popping up to the SW of the main ball of convection are potentially promising. Still no definitive evidence of a vigorous surface circulation, but if we see more bands with those kinds of clouds forming around the 17/57.5 area, that would be a stronger indicator that something is going on to me.

[robbielyn]

what happened to 93L? It disappeared or is it in the process of being upgraded? Hey Mike good to hear from ya again