Tropical Storm Fay Model Runs

[Vortex]

12Z Euro runs the spine of the state..Of noteworty is the trend for most globals to turn this system north in the long range..Either way this system will be very close to florida no matter the model of choice.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Fairly hard to get a significant storm to hit in extreme Northeast Florida because the coast line recedes, but it isn't impossible.

[cheezyWXguy]

well that is very interesting..
the ukmet also builds the ridge back in...

yeah i see that, but why would the euro track it in an S curve thru florida? For some reason the storm jumps back to moving nnw after moving w or wsw the whole run. What could it be seeing?

[MiamiensisWx]

My aunt and cousin just left this morning for the Bahamas. They are coming back on Sunday sometime. Is there any chance this system will be in the Bahamas by Sunday or before? I am off to work for now and will not be back till late tonight but if anyone has any information please post. I will check back later. Thank you!

The system will likely enter the Turks and Caicos Islands (SE of the Bahamas) late on Saturday (as a rough estimate). Bahamas will be affected on Sunday.

[MiamiensisWx]

The long term movement of the LLC (when it is well defined) will be crucial, in addition to the system's latitude and the evolution/location of the cutoff low over the Midwest. If the system moves farther south (or the cutoff low is slightly farther west than depicted by the 12Z operational GFS), a WNW/NW track across the Keys/Miami area of south Florida is probable. If the system moves farther north (or the cutoff low is farther east), the movement in the medium to long range may be slower and farther northeast. Another factor is the strength of the rebuilding H5-H85 ridging SE of the cutoff low over the Midwest. If the ridging amplifies more rapidly or evolves stronger than forecasted, a south FL strike becomes very certain, even if 92L is stronger. Remember that a deeper system will not necessarily move farther north if ridging at the mid/upper levels is strong (preventing north movement). If the ridging is weaker or rebuilds slower than progged, a movement farther northeast may be plausible, depending on 92L's intensity, location, and timing. Models MUST adequately sample the Pacific pattern over the next two days in order to gain a more accurate view of the cutoff low's evolution and the pattern over the CONUS. Seasonal trends are important as well. Models (read: GFS/ensembles and Euro) have tended to falsely depict stronger upper level ridging in the medium/long ranges this year, and they have tended to indicate the position of the mean H5 trough too far west. However, in this situation, the changing pattern may imply some of the models may underestimate the strength of the rebuilding ridge. They (read: operational GFS) may also have the cutoff low slightly too far east.

There are SO many questions and several days to monitor the situation... keep an eye on these variables!!!

Bump for everyone to highlight the complexities

[deltadog03]

wow, what a weird run from the euro....Like has a cane hoping all over florida. lol

[Meso]

I'm still very confused as to what people base the EURO's intensity on, last run it was showing 74mph winds (Per the image) and it was claimed to be a major and now it's forecasting winds around 15-25ms which are low tropical storm strength I think. I know the EURO underdoes intensity on most occasions, but I'm assuming what one would call a hurricane (when it's showing < 30ms winds) is rather an estimate?

[Derek Ortt]

Just checked the EURO on GARP, and the feature near Florida is something form the deep Caribbean, NOT 92L

[Derek Ortt]

I increased the contouring from 1mb to every .3mb... the Euro looks to be merging the wave (92L) with something in the SW Carib and moving them on a Charley track

[KWT]

Ummm. Derek theres nothing at all in the Caribbean at 72hrs that would suggest development on the ECM...check 72hrs and see 92L and track it westwards towards Cuba then shoot NNW then eventually hook NE...

Thats at least partly 92L i'm convinced...

EDIT---mind you you can see that wave you mention Derek actually slightly on the 120hr image, its mainly all 92L I'd guess given its already had a closed circulation before that point and would be the dominant feature.

[gatorcane]

Derek, what are you talking about? It's clearly 92L that the Euro is bringing up into Southern Florida. This is the link cycloneye provided unless its wrong

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 8081312!!/

[Ed Mahmoud]

Just checked the EURO on GARP, and the feature near Florida is something form the deep Caribbean, NOT 92L

The Canadian's hit on South Florida is from 92L running right through Hispaniola, into the Caribbean, then re-crossing Cuba.


A run right through Hispaniola might knock most of the wind out of 92L, of course.


BTW, this is low res, and the PSU dedicated tropical page ECMWF, which shows 850 mb vorticity, isn't available yet, but this generic PSU e-Wall North American run seems to suggest it is 92L, that pops down, then back up, like the Canadian.

[MCWX]

Just checked the EURO on GARP, and the feature near Florida is something form the deep Caribbean, NOT 92L

Disagree strongly! Check the vorticity fields.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Pretty sure that is 92L at 48 hours near La Republica Dominicana


I skipped 72 for brevity, but it seems to be the same low, moving West..


120- near La Habana


144- Monroe County, USA

[Derek Ortt]

let me post them online... give me one sec

[Derek Ortt]

http://www.nwhhc.com/euro/

Just follow the contours...

in euro04.gif, there is a clear broad low in the SW Caribbean that moves over Florida

the contouring I used is .3mb

[KWT]

Ok thanks Derek would solve some of the differences...

I think from what I've seen of the run 92L develops then heads towards Cuba weakens and then gets a boost by a Caribbean feature...

[KWT]

http://www.nwhhc.com/euro/

Just follow the contours...

in euro04.gif, there is a clear broad low in the SW Caribbean that moves over Florida

the contouring I used is .3mb

Hmmm strange, that places the center much further south YET clearly the other ECM on the main website has 92L clear as day heading westward...how odd its like two different runs!!!

[Aric Dunn]

And yet the new 12Z ECM is actually south/west of it's 00Z track (and MUCH weaker), taking the system to the western tip of Cuba by day 7.

By day 7 the Euro actually has this system inland over the FL Peninsula: http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... !chart.gif

This is truly bizarre. We get two versions of the ECM here at work...low-res and high-res. The low res has intervals of 24hr and goes out to H168 (day 7) while the high-res has intervals of 12hr and goes out to H240 (day 10). I looked at the high-res version which came in just as I was about to leave and saw it was totally different than the low-res...much stronger and an almost Donna-like track right up the spine of FL. Even stranger was that when I reloaded the 12Z low-res progs, it was actually almost on top of the high-res progs with the track, only weaker.

So I stand corrected (and thoroughly confused about how this happened).

i have an possible answer. its really my own theory ( i never heard it anywhere else) but hispanola does some very interesting things to cyclones as we all know. but models im pretty sure dont take into account land interaction very well ( do they?) beside weakening trends. But if you all remember hurricane Debby it had a similar forecast actually.
although it was a hurricne this time, it was not intensity that was interesting it was the forecast path vs. the actual path. image below shows the forcast path and the one below that was the actual path.




http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Debby_2000_track.png


So my theory/ idea for many years now is that although we know mountainess terrain will almost certainly weaken a system, what about its track...
with debbie i came up with an analogy "tether ball effect" imagine a tether ball swinging around a pole, now picture the inflow of the system as the rope and hispanola as the pole. disregarding the dynamics of "how" it seems reasonable to assume something similar happened with debbie. now relating it to 92l and the CMC/euro forecast. I not sure on the parameters that the models take into account but, i have been working on a model here at school (sort of) for tornadoes in the area of large building and something simialr showed up those models. so i have to imagine it is at least plausible.[/quote]

[Ed Mahmoud]

http://www.nwhhc.com/euro/

Just follow the contours...

in euro04.gif, there is a clear broad low in the SW Caribbean that moves over Florida

the contouring I used is .3mb

That is just darn weird. But you don't trust the Euro much anyway, right?

Look who else sees stuff in the Caribbean? The UK Met... well, on the coast of Colombia. I wonder if some crack data got into the models...

Code: Select all

TROPICAL STORM DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION :

11.5N  73.6W



  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY

  --------------     --------     --------        --------

 12UTC 13.08.2008  11.5N  73.6W     WEAK

 00UTC 14.08.2008  10.5N  70.2W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE

 12UTC 14.08.2008  11.1N  71.2W     WEAK     WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

 00UTC 15.08.2008  11.5N  74.0W     WEAK    INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

 12UTC 15.08.2008  11.6N  73.5W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE

 00UTC 16.08.2008  10.6N  70.0W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE

 12UTC 16.08.2008        BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH