Tropical Storm Fay Model Runs

[Blown Away]

The GFDL now keeps 92L E of SFL. Even if 92L develops it might not even make it to FL before recurving through the Bahamas.

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... model.html

[Aric Dunn]

nice model consensus i would say

Hwrf wich has been weaker and farther south is now stronger and heading towards miami
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

GFDL
which is about the same just more of a bend to the right towards central florida
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

ukmet
about the same as well but a little stonger than the previous runs and heading towards central florida
( note the ukmet build a strong ridge at the end of the run which would most likely bend back westerly into florida and even 93l heads towards NC on this run)
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.c ... =Animation

cmc
about the same as well just a little farther south initially again ( unlikely track but towards the end is inline with both the gfdl and hwrf interms of location and intensity)
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

overall im interested to see the outcome of this one as the models are consistantly developing 92l at some point and the gfdl continues with a strong hurricane heading towards the SE.

[Extremeweatherguy]

The GFDL now keeps 92L E of SFL. Even if 92L develops it might not even make it to FL before recurving through the Bahamas.

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... model.html

It is still way too close for comfort. A 95 knot hurricane (high-end Category 2) just offshore Florida on Monday afternoon would be a nasty scenario..

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

Even if this system did not make a direct landfall, the coast would still be battered by high waves and gusty outer rain bands.

[hiflyer]

I would suggest that until we get the Gulfstream doing some serious upper air work that perhaps the models will not be as accurate as they could be. However..both C130 and one P3 were canceled for today with only the late night P3 sked to run to get low altitude data for the 0500 products.

[cycloneye]

WHXX01 KWBC 131816
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1816 UTC WED AUG 13 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL922008) 20080813 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080813 1800 080814 0600 080814 1800 080815 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 16.5N 58.3W 17.1N 60.5W 18.0N 62.7W 18.6N 64.9W
BAMD 16.5N 58.3W 17.2N 60.4W 17.9N 62.6W 18.4N 64.9W
BAMM 16.5N 58.3W 17.1N 60.4W 17.7N 62.6W 18.1N 64.8W
LBAR 16.5N 58.3W 17.2N 60.8W 18.1N 63.7W 19.0N 66.5W
SHIP 25KTS 29KTS 35KTS 43KTS
DSHP 25KTS 29KTS 35KTS 43KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080815 1800 080816 1800 080817 1800 080818 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 19.5N 67.2W 20.4N 70.8W 21.7N 74.0W 23.5N 77.3W
BAMD 18.6N 67.2W 19.2N 71.4W 20.5N 75.1W 22.6N 78.1W
BAMM 18.6N 67.1W 19.1N 71.0W 20.3N 74.5W 22.1N 77.4W
LBAR 20.0N 69.2W 21.6N 73.5W 23.8N 75.8W 27.5N 77.1W
SHIP 50KTS 65KTS 78KTS 85KTS
DSHP 47KTS 36KTS 39KTS 44KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 16.5N LONCUR = 58.3W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 14KT
LATM12 = 16.1N LONM12 = 55.6W DIRM12 = 279DEG SPDM12 = 14KT
LATM24 = 15.7N LONM24 = 52.6W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 80NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 220NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[cheezyWXguy]

WHXX01 KWBC 131816
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1816 UTC WED AUG 13 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL922008) 20080813 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080813 1800 080814 0600 080814 1800 080815 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 16.5N 58.3W 17.1N 60.5W 18.0N 62.7W 18.6N 64.9W
BAMD 16.5N 58.3W 17.2N 60.4W 17.9N 62.6W 18.4N 64.9W
BAMM 16.5N 58.3W 17.1N 60.4W 17.7N 62.6W 18.1N 64.8W
LBAR 16.5N 58.3W 17.2N 60.8W 18.1N 63.7W 19.0N 66.5W
SHIP 25KTS 29KTS 35KTS 43KTS
DSHP 25KTS 29KTS 35KTS 43KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080815 1800 080816 1800 080817 1800 080818 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 19.5N 67.2W 20.4N 70.8W 21.7N 74.0W 23.5N 77.3W
BAMD 18.6N 67.2W 19.2N 71.4W 20.5N 75.1W 22.6N 78.1W
BAMM 18.6N 67.1W 19.1N 71.0W 20.3N 74.5W 22.1N 77.4W
LBAR 20.0N 69.2W 21.6N 73.5W 23.8N 75.8W 27.5N 77.1W
SHIP 50KTS 65KTS 78KTS 85KTS
DSHP 47KTS 36KTS 39KTS 44KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 16.5N LONCUR = 58.3W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 14KT
LATM12 = 16.1N LONM12 = 55.6W DIRM12 = 279DEG SPDM12 = 14KT
LATM24 = 15.7N LONM24 = 52.6W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 80NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 220NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

Is the ships shear forecast out as well?

[cycloneye]

Not yet.It looks like some of the models haved shifted left.

[KWT]

quite a few of the models now trakcing this over the Caribbean islands instead, looks like nothing will come of it if it does that IMO, only if it can get further north then that does it have a chance of doing anything more then maybe a weak TD/TS...not that thats a bad thing of course.

[Extremeweatherguy]

The Globals and tropical models mostly take this north of the islands. The GFS takes it north, the GFDL takes it north, the HWRF takes it north, and the NOGAPS takes it north. The models that take it through the islands include the BAMM and BAMD, the CMC and the UKMET. Overall, I think there are more reliable models on the north side. It will be a very close call though, and if it does go through the islands, then development chances will be much lower.

[DESTRUCTION5]

The Globals and tropical models mostly take this north of the islands. The GFS takes it north, the GFDL takes it north, the HWRF takes it north, and the NOGAPS takes it north. The models that take it through the islands include the BAMM and BAMD, the CMC and the UKMET. Overall, I think there are more reliable models on the north side. It will be a very close call though, and if it does go through the islands, then development chances will be much lower.

If you split the difference you get a DR doomed system...

[Vortex]

Euro out very soon. Let see if it follows the trends of the GFDL and GFS.

[cycloneye]

The 12z EURO shows a hurricane moving thru the Florida Penninsula.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 8081312!!/

[Ed Mahmoud]

The JB "Big Dog" video is finally out, but my lunch time is over, and unless the boss leaves early, no watching until quititng time.


But JB's theme, for a while, early season might see some Gulf action, and we had Dolly and Edouard, but prime time would be Florida and up the East Coast, and the models seem to be trending that way with this.

93L looks like a fish, (maybe) but future 94L looks potentially scary.

[Extremeweatherguy]

The 12z EURO is probably one of the worst scenarios for me trying to catch a flight early Tuesday afternoon...

[stormy1970al]

My aunt and cousin just left this morning for the Bahamas. They are coming back on Sunday sometime. Is there any chance this system will be in the Bahamas by Sunday or before? I am off to work for now and will not be back till late tonight but if anyone has any information please post. I will check back later. Thank you!

[cheezyWXguy]

The 12z EURO shows a hurricane moving thru the Florida Penninsula.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 8081312!!/

That run looks fishy to me. It has it over land practically the entire time, then strengthens it will traversing the florida peninsula, and makes landfall in SC.

???

[Blown Away]

Looks like the Euro get's stuck off FL after disecting the peninsula. Maybe the building ridge is blocking it near the end run.

[gatorcane]

Interestingly enough the Euro has 92L as a hurricane moving through the middle upper keys and sorta bending back NNE through metro SE FL exiting around the East Central FL coast

Very interesting run.

[MiamiensisWx]

The long term movement of the LLC (when it is well defined) will be crucial, in addition to the system's latitude and the evolution/location of the cutoff low over the Midwest. If the system moves farther south (or the cutoff low is slightly farther west than depicted by the 12Z operational GFS), a WNW/NW track across the Keys/Miami area of south Florida is probable. If the system moves farther north (or the cutoff low is farther east), the movement in the medium to long range may be slower and farther northeast. Another factor is the strength of the rebuilding H5-H85 ridging SE of the cutoff low over the Midwest. If the ridging amplifies more rapidly or evolves stronger than forecasted, a south FL strike becomes very certain, even if 92L is stronger. Remember that a deeper system will not necessarily move farther north if ridging at the mid/upper levels is strong (preventing north movement). If the ridging is weaker or rebuilds slower than progged, a movement farther northeast may be plausible, depending on 92L's intensity, location, and timing. Models MUST adequately sample the Pacific pattern over the next two days in order to gain a more accurate view of the cutoff low's evolution and the pattern over the CONUS. Seasonal trends are important as well. Models (read: GFS/ensembles and Euro) have tended to falsely depict stronger upper level ridging in the medium/long ranges this year, and they have tended to indicate the position of the mean H5 trough too far west. However, in this situation, the changing pattern may imply some of the models may underestimate the strength of the rebuilding ridge. They (read: operational GFS) may also have the cutoff low slightly too far east.

There are SO many questions and several days to monitor the situation... keep an eye on these variables!!!

[Aric Dunn]

well that is very interesting..
the ukmet also builds the ridge back in...