Tropical Storm Fay Model Runs

[boca]

This will likely pulse up and down like we've been seeing.I can't wait until this system gets north of PR to see how these models will perform.Its just a wait and see game.

[Derek Ortt]

the thing is, there is not really any model support for this to go

Chucking the EURO, since it has had major genesis prediction problems in the last and SHIPS, which assumes this is already a TD, we ONLY have the Canadian and GFDL developing it. And we can chuck the Canadian since it develops everything into a hurricane.

There is not much RELIABLE model support for this

[cheezyWXguy]

This will likely pulse up and down like we've been seeing.I can't wait until this system gets north of PR to see how these models will perform.Its just a wait and see game.

I believe that either today or tomorrow is the last day of inconsistent convection. By then conditions should be favorable for convection to persist. Basically what im saying is that even if convection fully dies tonight, I still expect development.

[Emmett_Brown]

GFS vs. ECM vs. GFDL 00z runs

Looks like the ECM and GFDL are very problematic for South Florida. Could be a big, nasty surprise this weekend.

The GFDL has been pretty consistent on developing a hurricane. At the begining of the run, it also shows an open wave, like we have now. Any opinions about how reliable the GFDL is for forecasting cyclogenisis?

[Extremeweatherguy]

12z GFS...

NW of Puerto Rico by Friday Afternoon: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_054l.gif

N of Hispanola by Saturday Morning: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_072l.gif

Creeping into the SE Bahamas by Saturday Evening: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_084l.gif

Also, notice that there a pretty big weakness starting to open up by late Saturday: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_084l.gif

Into the south-central Bahamas by Sunday Morning: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_096l.gif

Hanging out in the north-central Bahamas by Very early Monday Morning (~12am): http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_114l.gif

Parallel to the FL east coast by Very early Tuesday Morning (~12am): http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_138l.gif

System starts to lift north, away from FL, by Tuesday afternoon: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_150l.gif

[Extremeweatherguy]

the thing is, there is not really any model support for this to go

Chucking the EURO, since it has had major genesis prediction problems in the last and SHIPS, which assumes this is already a TD, we ONLY have the Canadian and GFDL developing it. And we can chuck the Canadian since it develops everything into a hurricane.

There is not much RELIABLE model support for this

What do you consider a reliable model then? The EURO has been pretty good in the past, the GFDL is a well-respected hurricane model, the HWRF also shows this reaching TS strength ( http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation ), and the NOGAPS looks to try and develop this toward the Bahamas too ( http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ngptc2.c ... =Animation ). It seems like there is at least a moderate amount of reliable model support, IMO.

[cycloneye]

Off Topic=The GFS run related to the new wave is being posted at Talking Tropics in the thread for the new wave.

[DESTRUCTION5]

the thing is, there is not really any model support for this to go

Chucking the EURO, since it has had major genesis prediction problems in the last and SHIPS, which assumes this is already a TD, we ONLY have the Canadian and GFDL developing it. And we can chuck the Canadian since it develops everything into a hurricane.

There is not much RELIABLE model support for this

What do you consider a reliable model then? The EURO has been pretty good in the past, the GFDL is a well-respected hurricane model, the HWRF also shows this reaching TS strength ( http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation ), and the NOGAPS looks to try and develop this toward the Bahamas too ( http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ngptc2.c ... =Animation ). It seems like there is at least a moderate amount of reliable model support, IMO.

Yea Derek you just killed off every model there is..LOL I think the real question besides the GFS what model don't develop this in any way..whether it be a depression or Cane..

[Derek Ortt]

UKMET, NOGAPS, and GFS has been the most reliable models this season

GFDL is better once something has actually developed

the reliable models are NOT the only ones that forecast development

[storms in NC]

Off Topic=The GFS run related to the new wave is being posted at Talking Tropics in the thread for the new wave.

Trying to move people on to a new wave?

[MiamiensisWx]

Interestingly, the new 12Z operational GFS indicates 92L will be ideally situated under the 300 mb anticyclonic wind vectors around ~84 hours. The depiction of the pattern in the run indicates the anticyclone would retrograde westward as 92L moves "in tandem" with it.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/12/images/gfs_300_084l.gif

Note that the system is directly under the 500 mb ridging, which is flattening and building west as the strong shortwave over the Northeast moves out of the area.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/12/images/gfs_500_084l.gif

Low level 850 mb ridging would indicate a WNW/NW track toward southern FL or the Monroe County Keys.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/12/images/gfs_850_084l.gif

~120 hours

300 mb:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/12/images/gfs_300_120l.gif

Note ideal juxtaposition of upper level jet for intensification.

850 mb:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/12/images/gfs_850_120l.gif

Note the greater threat to south FL/Keys instead of the Gulf of Mexico.

SLP:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/12/images/gfs_ten_120l.gif

[gatorcane]

Indeed here is another view of the 500MB flow predicted by GFS for day 5. Note how it would support a WNW to NW bend somewhere around Southern Florida (+/- about 100 miles) if this verifies -- pretty typical track for a system that skirts the islands and goes into the SE Bahamas...

[Extremeweatherguy]

12z GFS...

NW of Puerto Rico by Friday Afternoon: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_054l.gif

N of Hispanola by Saturday Morning: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_072l.gif

Creeping into the SE Bahamas by Saturday Evening: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_084l.gif

Also, notice that there a pretty big weakness starting to open up by late Saturday: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_084l.gif

Into the south-central Bahamas by Sunday Morning: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_096l.gif

Hanging out in the north-central Bahamas by Very early Monday Morning (~12am): http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_114l.gif

Parallel to the FL east coast by Very early Tuesday Morning (~12am): http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_138l.gif

System starts to lift north, away from FL, by Tuesday afternoon: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_150l.gif

I am re-posting this so that everyone can see it.

[MiamiensisWx]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/12/images/gfs_850_150l.gif

Offshore track toward Carolinas is depicted...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/12/images/gfs_500_150l.gif

The run even moves 93L toward the Caribbean.

[gatorcane]

very floyd-like if that verifies

[cycloneye]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/12/images/gfs_850_150l.gif

Offshore track toward Carolinas is depicted...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/12/images/gfs_500_150l.gif

The run even moves 93L toward the Caribbean.

That is not 93l,its the new wave.

[canegrl04]

GFS vs. ECM vs. GFDL 00z runs

Looks like the ECM and GFDL are very problematic for South Florida. Could be a big, nasty surprise this weekend.

The GFDL has been pretty consistent on developing a hurricane. At the begining of the run, it also shows an open wave, like we have now. Any opinions about how reliable the GFDL is for forecasting cyclogenisis?

Last year,it was either the GFDL,or HW whatever model that had Dean as a cat 5 even before it officially became a TS.GFS was crappy with it

[carolina_73]

k...I am confused here Which model is showing a possible N.C. hit and which invest would that be?

[HurricaneBelle]

My point is that actually everybody DOES remember Katrina. And mentions it over. And over. And over. And over. And over. And over. And over. And over. And over. And over. And over. And over. And over. And over. And over.

Even when it's pretty inappropriate. And Katrina *was* a unique event. Yes, pop-up majors do happen from time to time but that just makes it noise to mention it every time. It's like discussing some obscure cyclogenesis mechanism in *every* invest thread.

What we need is some sort of Godwin's Law regarding the mentioning of Hitler adapted here:

As a Storm2k discussion of a weak disturbance grows longer, the probability of a comparison involving Katrina approaches one.

[KWT]

UKMET, NOGAPS, and GFS has been the most reliable models this season

UKMO has been pretty poor actually, didn't do anything with Bertha nor Dolly till well after they formed, NOGAPS, well I can't really say because I've never considered it a good enough model to bother watching to be honest, the GFS has been pretty good this year. ECM has been poor with development but very good with track, as you'd expect, GFDL has had a bad right bias again this season though as you say its bette ronce something is developed.