ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[senorpepr]

Senor, how 'come we don't see much of you in the regular discussion threads. Is that not your cup o' tea? Love what you put out, as always.

Let's face it--tropical weather is not my expertise. I love it like as a hobby and I have had plenty of formal training on the subject, it's not the thing I focus on day in and day out. Now, if you were to ask me about European or Asian weather--that would be a different story. I'll try to pitch in, time permitting, but you're more apt to find me in the Tropical Analysis forum where things are much less chaotic.

[gatorcane]

Latest:

[Sanibel]

if you look closely you can see the swirl in the deeper thunderstorms in this area

I'm seeing that too. What it means we'll find out.

[Bocadude85]

I dont see a LLC but I do see some inflow streaming in from the south.

[storms in NC]

I think it is just a blow up of the day time hours. JMO

[gatorcane]

I think we are seeing the start of 92L gradually organizing now (slowly mind you) ---

If this blob does persist throughout the day then here we go....and it should be off to the races...

If not, it may wait another 24-48 hours with some more pulsing before getting going.

[Dean4Storms]

If you look closely at the surface spiral on visible loop there's an inflow nearer to the NW side of the convection center - meaning this could easily reform a little north. So I'll back-off the island crash for now since 92 has a record of reforming centers already as well as deep d-mins.

I don't see that, Sanibel. All I see are several outflow boundaries pushing out the the NW-N as the convection collapses.

Exactly, right now I see collapsing Convection and outflows, no sign of a LLC closed at the surface.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Any low to mid-level "circulation" still appears to be out ahead of the convection cluster, IMO.

[alienstorm]

Looking hard and steady I believe I have found a developing LLC near 17.7N 56.0W, if you look closely you can see the swirl in the deeper thunderstorms in this area, and the look of banding features. But then again it may only be my eyes...

Comments welcome

http://www.tropicalatlantic.com/satelli ... &lon=-57.0

Look at this sat pic and I've staired at it for 2 minutes,do you see any inflow to it? I wonder if this is a pulse and by 3pm or so it will dissappear again.

http://metofis.rsmas.miami.edu/~dortt/s ... 1_loop.gif

Updated http://www.tropicalatlantic.com/satelli ... &lon=-56.0

Believe inflow from south, southwest and beginning from northern quadrants. Also some outflow being established. If this keeps up for the next 5 -6 hours then we may a player....

[gatorcane]

it seems to be resuming a more WNW movement now, does everybody agree?

[frederic79]

Just to underscore what Mike said, every major I have personally been impacted by has developed "close to home". Camille actually formed about 60 miles west of Grand Cayman. Frederic formed further out but didn't reach hurricane strength until the western tip of Cuba before eventually making landfall near Mobile. Elena became a hurricane in the GOM off the west coast of Florida, stalled out and then it became a major enroute to landfall near Biloxi. Althought the catalyst waves for these systems probably all originated near Africa, they were not an issue (hurricane) until getting "close to home". And yes, Katrina did the same thing in a different and more extreme manner. I'm sure there are others, but I found it interesting to find that historically this is NOT an anomoly.

-Source: NHC Archives

[boca]

Wxman57 pointed out outflow boundaries racing off to the NW or N so this should probably pulse down again by mid afternoon.The old saying either poop or get off the pot 92L.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Is this 94L, which struggled for days, but did develop, or 99L, which struggled for days, and didn't?


That is the question.

[Ed Mahmoud]

It looks to my untrained eyes, while far from a model of tropical organization, better now than it did about this time yesterday.

Yesterday I saw a elliptical circulation with at least two embedded vortices, now I see one main area of rotation, at fairly low level, judging from cloud streams, near the SW corner of the deeper storms.


So, I'll offer unprofessional and unofficial odds, with an unreasonable amount of significant figures, of 47.65%, of TD w/i 24 hours.

[Dean4Storms]

If it can resume the deeper convection we saw this morning throughout the day and into tonight we have a player, if not it'll be a couple more days and will probably repeat until then what we are seeing now. I think it won't do much till it gets through this UL trough to the back side.

[wxman57]

Looking hard and steady I believe I have found a developing LLC near 17.7N 56.0W, if you look closely you can see the swirl in the deeper thunderstorms in this area, and the look of banding features. But then again it may only be my eyes...

Comments welcome

http://www.tropicalatlantic.com/satelli ... &lon=-57.0

I don't see anything there, alienstorm. If you plot the satellite with surface obs on top you'll see that pressures near that blob of convection are a good bit higher than 100 or so miles to the west (1014mb vs 1009-1010mb). I see no evidence of any rotation near 17.7N/56W.

[Honeyko]

We should see it decouple today, with an exposed LLC racing off west, just north of PR. (Pretty much just like 99L previously.)

[wxman57]

It looks to my untrained eyes, while far from a model of tropical organization, better now than it did about this time yesterday.

Yesterday I saw a elliptical circulation with at least two embedded vortices, now I see one main area of rotation, at fairly low level, judging from cloud streams, near the SW corner of the deeper storms.


So, I'll offer unprofessional and unofficial odds, with an unreasonable amount of significant figures, of 47.65%, of TD w/i 24 hours.

Ed, either your eyes or my eyes need recalibration. To me, it looks considerably less organized than yesterday. Chances of a TD within 24 hours about 0.000000001% (can't rule it out completely, )

[gatorcane]

Looking hard and steady I believe I have found a developing LLC near 17.7N 56.0W, if you look closely you can see the swirl in the deeper thunderstorms in this area, and the look of banding features. But then again it may only be my eyes...

Comments welcome

http://www.tropicalatlantic.com/satelli ... &lon=-57.0

I don't see anything there, alienstorm. If you plot the satellite with surface obs on top you'll see that pressures near that blob of convection are a good bit higher than 100 or so miles to the west (1014mb vs 1009-1010mb). I see no evidence of any rotation near 17.7N/56W.

I agree with that.

What I am seeing is the "LLC" moving W and then a nudge WNW in the last frame or so, the convection is sheared convection developing east of the LLC...



But the overall appearance is not bad with alot of cyclonic turning, we just need to see the convection develop over the LLC.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Hmm. Has anyone else noticed this new weakness the GFS is showing toward Saturday evening? This could definitely alter the future track if it actually plays out...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_084l.gif