ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[JonathanBelles]

Are you doing these all manually? I see that they are now outdated by 11 hours. Good job though Senor!

[Nimbus]

Well 92L is starting to pick up convection again which might be consistant with distancing itself from the ULL. May be far enough west soon that it won't go through any more poof cycles.

I'm still focusing on how the ridge is going to build since the track will be important.

Actually the more interaction this has with the land mass of the big islands the better, since it is weak and this far west already.

[cpdaman]

so in 7 days this 92l thing will only go about 25 degrees in longitude?

what speed does that work out to? 8mph? phelps could out swim this thing in a breeze

[artist]

Are you doing these all manually? I see that they are now outdated by 11 hours. Good job though Senor!

fact, he mentioned to be certain to refresh after loading the page so it will update.

[JonathanBelles]

Are you doing these all manually? I see that they are now outdated by 11 hours. Good job though Senor!

fact, he mentioned to be certain to refresh after loading the page so it will update.

I did.

[artist]

you're right. I'm sure he'll be around, hopefully tonight to fix it.

[senorpepr]

It should have ran automatically. I just reran the script and set up the task manager again, so it "should" work again.

[Ed Mahmoud]

>>What are you getting at Ed? I personally still have doubts 92L will even make it into the GOM.

Think he's just throwing out the caveat that if the GFS is right in the 7 day period, this is what things will look like. He also acknowledged that trust in the GFS at that period is suspect at best. That's what I got from it anyway.

Steve

If it never develops beyond a tropical wave, what was 92L may indeed visit Texas. Since yesterday's cold front with 60% chance of storms w/ locally heavy rain didn't put a drop on my lawn, I welcome tropical waves. I suspect anything stronger will landfall well East of Texas. Unofficially, of course.

[artist]

I knew you would get on it! Thanks again senor!

[artist]

Are you doing these all manually? I see that they are now outdated by 11 hours. Good job though Senor!

fact, he mentioned to be certain to refresh after loading the page so it will update.

I did.

he fixed it!

[JonathanBelles]

I see its now up to 2:31CT, where it was at 11pCT.

[HouTXmetro]

>>What are you getting at Ed? I personally still have doubts 92L will even make it into the GOM.

Think he's just throwing out the caveat that if the GFS is right in the 7 day period, this is what things will look like. He also acknowledged that trust in the GFS at that period is suspect at best. That's what I got from it anyway.

Steve

If it never develops beyond a tropical wave, what was 92L may indeed visit Texas. Since yesterday's cold front with 60% chance of storms w/ locally heavy rain didn't put a drop on my lawn, I welcome tropical waves. I suspect anything stronger will landfall well East of Texas. Unofficially, of course.

Didn't some of the pro mets on this board say throw out conventional wisdom with this system because stronger means more west and weaker means more north in relationship to "92L"?

Something to due with the steering currents.

[CalmBeforeStorm]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-rb.html

92l is definitely looking better with more concentrated convection and a more circular shape to the surrounding clouds. Also, it's definitely moving north of west.

[Sanibel]

If you look closely at the surface spiral on visible loop there's an inflow nearer to the NW side of the convection center - meaning this could easily reform a little north. So I'll back-off the island crash for now since 92 has a record of reforming centers already as well as deep d-mins.

[Dean4Storms]

From the looks of the forecasted synoptics of multiple runs going into next week, GFS, EURO, a system staying north of the big islands would likely develop deeper and be a threat to south Florida and then eventually the north Gulf Coast east of LA. Any weak system such as is or flipping back and forth with a closed low would remain on a mostly westerly course within the LL flow and head for TX.

[alienstorm]

Looking hard and steady I believe I have found a developing LLC near 17.7N 56.0W, if you look closely you can see the swirl in the deeper thunderstorms in this area, and the look of banding features. But then again it may only be my eyes...

Comments welcome

http://www.tropicalatlantic.com/satelli ... &lon=-57.0

[artist]

they are up to date for me now fact. Are you clicking into each and then refreshing? Also he stated they will update every 30 minutes. They are reading 10:31 cdt for me.

[wxman57]

If you look closely at the surface spiral on visible loop there's an inflow nearer to the NW side of the convection center - meaning this could easily reform a little north. So I'll back-off the island crash for now since 92 has a record of reforming centers already as well as deep d-mins.

I don't see that, Sanibel. All I see are several outflow boundaries pushing out the the NW-N as the convection collapses.

[JonathanBelles]

ok, now its working. Thanks Senor!

[boca]

Looking hard and steady I believe I have found a developing LLC near 17.7N 56.0W, if you look closely you can see the swirl in the deeper thunderstorms in this area, and the look of banding features. But then again it may only be my eyes...

Comments welcome

http://www.tropicalatlantic.com/satelli ... &lon=-57.0

Look at this sat pic and I've staired at it for 2 minutes,do you see any inflow to it? I wonder if this is a pulse and by 3pm or so it will dissappear again.

http://metofis.rsmas.miami.edu/~dortt/s ... 1_loop.gif