Tropical Storm Fay Model Runs

[littlevince]

GFS vs. ECM vs. GFDL 00z runs

[ftolmsteen]

eghhhhhh...

ECM isn't good for Florida at all.

[bvigal]

Anyone seen
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL922008) 20080813 0000 UTC
for 6z?

[HURAKAN]

Anyone seen
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL922008) 20080813 0000 UTC
for 6z?

Only Kika's is out. Kika is still being tracked as a disturbance.

[RL3AO]

Anyone seen
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL922008) 20080813 0000 UTC
for 6z?

Not there for some reason.

[bvigal]

AL, 92, 2008081300, , BEST, 0, 170N, 532W, 25, 1009, DB, 34, NEQ
Last thing I find posted on 92. Anyone know what the bold part means?

[bvigal]

Here's the entire file contents.

Code: Select all

AL, 92, 2008081000,   , BEST,   0, 105N,  397W,  25, 1009, DB,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0,
AL, 92, 2008081006,   , BEST,   0, 105N,  413W,  25, 1009, DB,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0,
AL, 92, 2008081012,   , BEST,   0, 105N,  429W,  25, 1009, DB,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1011,  150,   0,   0,   0,   L,   0,    ,   0,   0,     INVEST, M,
AL, 92, 2008081018,   , BEST,   0, 107N,  445W,  25, 1009, DB,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1011,  150,  40,   0,   0,   L,   0,    ,   0,   0,     INVEST, M,
AL, 92, 2008081100,   , BEST,   0, 110N,  457W,  25, 1009, DB,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1012,  150,  40,   0,   0,   L,   0,    ,   0,   0,     INVEST, M,
AL, 92, 2008081106,   , BEST,   0, 111N,  468W,  25, 1009, DB,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1012,  150,  40,   0,   0,   L,   0,    ,   0,   0,     INVEST, S,
AL, 92, 2008081112,   , BEST,   0, 119N,  473W,  20, 1009, DB,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1011,  150,  40,   0,   0,   L,   0,    ,   0,   0,     INVEST, S,
AL, 92, 2008081118,   , BEST,   0, 127N,  477W,  25, 1008, DB,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1011,  180,  60,   0,   0,   L,   0,    ,   0,   0,     INVEST, M,
AL, 92, 2008081200,   , BEST,   0, 138N,  485W,  25, 1008, DB,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1011,  180,  60,   0,   0,   L,   0,    ,   0,   0,     INVEST, M,
AL, 92, 2008081206,   , BEST,   0, 148N,  498W,  25, 1008, DB,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1011,  180,  60,   0,   0,   L,   0,    ,   0,   0,     INVEST, S,
AL, 92, 2008081212,   , BEST,   0, 156N,  510W,  25, 1007, DB,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1011,  180,  60,   0,   0,   L,   0,    ,   0,   0,     INVEST, M,
AL, 92, 2008081218,   , BEST,   0, 164N,  522W,  25, 1009, DB,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1011,  200,  60,   0,   0,   L,   0,    ,   0,   0,     INVEST, M,
AL, 92, 2008081300,   , BEST,   0, 170N,  532W,  25, 1009, DB,  34, NEQ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1011,  200,  60,   0,   0,   L,   0,    ,   0,   0,     INVEST, M,



from ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/bal922008.dat

[RL3AO]

AL, 92, 2008081300, , BEST, 0, 170N, 532W, 25, 1009, DB, 34, NEQ
Last thing I find posted on 92. Anyone know what the bold part means?

I think it has to do with the radius of 34kt winds, which there are none.

[HURAKAN]

985
WHXX01 KWBC 131223
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1223 UTC WED AUG 13 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL922008) 20080813 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080813 1200 080814 0000 080814 1200 080815 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 16.6N 57.1W 17.4N 59.2W 18.2N 61.4W 18.9N 63.5W
BAMD 16.6N 57.1W 17.4N 59.2W 18.1N 61.2W 18.6N 63.4W
BAMM 16.6N 57.1W 17.3N 59.2W 17.8N 61.2W 18.3N 63.4W
LBAR 16.6N 57.1W 17.6N 59.7W 18.6N 62.4W 19.7N 65.1W
SHIP 25KTS 29KTS 35KTS 41KTS
DSHP 25KTS 29KTS 35KTS 41KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080815 1200 080816 1200 080817 1200 080818 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 19.3N 65.6W 20.2N 69.6W 20.9N 73.0W 22.1N 76.2W
BAMD 18.9N 65.6W 19.4N 69.6W 20.4N 73.3W 22.2N 76.8W
BAMM 18.5N 65.6W 18.9N 69.6W 19.5N 73.3W 20.8N 76.5W
LBAR 20.8N 67.5W 22.5N 71.4W 24.3N 73.2W 26.8N 74.1W
SHIP 50KTS 67KTS 78KTS 81KTS
DSHP 50KTS 50KTS 38KTS 31KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 16.6N LONCUR = 57.1W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 15KT
LATM12 = 16.0N LONM12 = 54.0W DIRM12 = 283DEG SPDM12 = 14KT
LATM24 = 15.3N LONM24 = 51.1W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 220NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN

[HURAKAN]

Anyone seen
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL922008) 20080813 0000 UTC
for 6z?

Only Kika's is out. Kika is still being tracked as a disturbance.

6z was skipped as 12z is out.

[HURAKAN]

[Recurve]

I am kind of amazed and concerned about these models still showing development into a hurricane approaching south florida. It seems fairly consistent across the GFDL, NAM, Euro. I note Derek's statement previous that the Euro shouldn't be used for forecasting genesis.
We'll be watching this until it totally evaporates or goes ashore. As many have said, a wave in the Bahamas is still a threat for the EC.
Anyone have any insight on why the models have been insisting on development into a significant storm?

[Derek Ortt]

SHIPS assumes that it is already a depression. Chuck it

[boca]

I think everyone's expectation were to high for this and I'll still watch but I'm just expecting a weak wave to pass over Florida. If it does develop I'll pay more attention once it gets to DR.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

I am kind of amazed and concerned about these models still showing development into a hurricane approaching south florida. It seems fairly consistent across the GFDL, NAM, Euro. I note Derek's statement previous that the Euro shouldn't be used for forecasting genesis.
We'll be watching this until it totally evaporates or goes ashore. As many have said, a wave in the Bahamas is still a threat for the EC.
Anyone have any insight on why the models have been insisting on development into a significant storm?

In a few days when it is several hundred miles west the upper air conditions become more
favorable to allow rapid intensification. Right now some dry air or lack of convergence
is inhibiting it, but once it gets further west north of Puerto Rico or west of there
it will have explosive oceanic heat content and a much more favorable
upper level environment to allow it to deepen according to the models.
The ECMWF brings it through Key West/South Florida and then along
the west coast to Tampa Bay and then northward, which would be a scary
scenario for both of us and for the FL peninsula. That is why I am watching
this very closely. Also, convection is increasing around the center
this morning, confirming my thinking on slow development. This could
be stronger than a 30 mph wave when it approaches FL...

[Stormcenter]

I am kind of amazed and concerned about these models still showing development into a hurricane approaching south florida. It seems fairly consistent across the GFDL, NAM, Euro. I note Derek's statement previous that the Euro shouldn't be used for forecasting genesis.
We'll be watching this until it totally evaporates or goes ashore. As many have said, a wave in the Bahamas is still a threat for the EC.
Anyone have any insight on why the models have been insisting on development into a significant storm?

In a few days when it is several hundred miles west the upper air conditions become more
favorable to allow rapid intensification. Right now some dry air or lack of convergence
is inhibiting it, but once it gets further west north of Puerto Rico or west of there
it will have explosive oceanic heat content and a much more favorable
upper level environment to allow it to deepen according to the models.
The ECMWF brings it through Key West/South Florida and then along
the west coast to Tampa Bay and then northward, which would be a scary
scenario for both of us and for the FL peninsula. That is why I am watching
this very closely. Also, convection is increasing around the center
this morning, confirming my thinking on slow development. This could
be stronger than a 30 mph wave when it approaches FL...

Rapid intensification of what? We need something before it can "rapidly" intensify.

[GeneratorPower]

GFS vs. ECM vs. GFDL 00z runs

Looks like the ECM and GFDL are very problematic for South Florida. Could be a big, nasty surprise this weekend.

[gatorcane]

One trend I have noticed is that models have backed off some on the ridge which would allow 92L to move more WNW then just straight W into Cuba. Let's see if this trend continues.

For example check out the shortwave and 500MB steering at day 7 as shown by the GFS

[ronjon]

Reviewing this mornings globals offers a few interesting twists. The GFS now shows a delay of about 24 hrs in rebuilding the Atlantic ridging westward. This allows a small window of time for 92L to turn NW and perhaps N-NW as it approaches the central Bahamas. What this trend portrays is probably a more northward adjustment to the track and now places S FL at a greater risk for landfall if this thing develops like the models show. The models still show the ridging coming back strongly so 92L will take this northward jog and then probably resume a W-NW movement - right now, either through the keys or S FL. I still don't see any weakness in the models that would allow a recurvature north toward the carolinas at this time. Stay tuned. Of course, I was thinking that if 92L never develops, there sure has been alot of analysis over a lousy tropical wave.

[Bocadude85]

Everyone that keeps writing this off obviously doesnt remember how a little wave that struggled across the atlantic quickly started to develop right of the coast of Florida and became the costliest storm in histroy... not saying this is going to be a Katrina but until this wave is firing no more convection I would keep my eyes on it.