ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[Swimdude]

Well, convection appears to be on the increase at the moment.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-rb.html

[Rainband]

Let's hope the 0z EURO is wrong...goodness....lookout E GOM.

I agree

[Meso]

Well well, the dry air has almost vanished now (compared to yesterday).So it's made it through that (Not so intact).



Thought the lack of convergence and the amount of shear is still the problem I'm assuming

[Mecklenburg]

as of now, it doesn't look just bad, it looks mortified.... very deprived of convection

[Vortex]

06Z NAM


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[KWT]

It does look pretty cruddy right now, just lacking any decent convection right now which is really a big issue, may not even survive if it doesn't pick up some convection, despite what many of the models are showing, we shall see...lest us forget what Katriona looked like at this stage.

[carolina_73]

Might have to do this if it doesn't get going soon.

[KWT]

Quite possibly it does look real bad now and needs a burst of convection really badly to keep it going, wonder what it will do once it enter a better set-up further west though.

[deltadog03]

Well, I thought this would look a little better when I started my day today. However, still looks messy and yucky. I am going to lower my chances for development a little bit to 35%. There is still a couple of models that develop this and I still believe this is going to be one sneaky system. Obviously there is something down the road that allows this to develop into a fairly large/strong system.

[KWT]

Yeah I think its one of those systems that just needs a little bit more favorable conditions and clearly quite a few models think it will get that but then again they can be wrong. If it can survive the next 24hrs the models do show a better set-up starting to develop for the system, looking a big if however right now.

[Meso]

Looking at the loop, it's clear to see that the shear is ripping the cloud tops away to the north east. There are some small bursts of convection near the centre at the moment, and it wouldn't surprise me to see it carry on fluctuating with convection.

As someone said on the previous page, let's not forget Katrina. No I am not saying that this is going to be the same, but I recall everyone calling TD#10 completely dead and that the wave was done for and would never develop.And it just took another tropical wave to interact with it and look what happened. Moral of the story being just to not count your chickens before they hatch.

In regards to the shear, you can see on the graphic below the area of shear which it is encountering, you can also see how it's forecast to weaken. I must say though, the SHIPS shear forecast this year has been TERRIBLE.

[Derek Ortt]

Let's hope the 0z EURO is wrong...goodness....lookout E GOM.

that's why you NEVER use the Euro to predict genesis

nothing for at least 36-48 now... so for the time being (it may come back), NEXT!

[KWT]

Yeah Derek even if it starts to look better again its going to take that long for it to get itself back together again I reckon, still in this part of the world with a system heading towards very warm waters it would only take a breif spell of favorable condtions to see something ramp up.

[Mecklenburg]

so much for this system and 93L as well... and people think this would would be sleepless...

[deltadog03]

Euro, might not be the best for predicting tropical cyclonegenisis, but it will surely out perform most of the other global synoptic forecasts. With that said, this thing does have develop first.

[RL3AO]

so much for this system and 93L as well... and people think this would would be sleepless...

I know. Isn't it great. Every day without a storm is one day closer to the end of a non-destructive season.

[alan1961]

all the struggling with dry air and the shear has just come along and wacked it one..if it comes back from this..well well.

[HURAKAN]

Feeling the 30 knots of shear. Development shouldn't be expected until the system clears the area.

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

Closer look: