Tropical Storm Fay Model Runs

[Bocadude85]

The only Bam I see with a somwhat north movement is the shallow bam if this system is anywhere close to the strength the GFDL shows it will not be moving NW if anything the deeper Bams dive it wsw.

[lonelymike]

Great:) Hope to see you as an approved forecaster some day. Good luck on your pursuit of your dream

[ROCK]

The only Bam I see with a somwhat north movement is the shallow bam if this system is anywhere close to the strength the GFDL shows it will not be moving NW if anything the deeper Bams dive it wsw.

exactly Derek's point a few posts back......deeper mean west ,shallow means NW...complete opposite of what we would come to expect....

[Recurve]

The BamD bounces it off Hispanola. That would be a freak track.

[ROCK]

0z GFS coming in......opens it up at 24hr.....

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_024l.gif

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_042l.gif

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_066l.gif

[ROCK]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_108l.gif


92L coming back to life some...with 93L right on its heels....

[canetracker]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/00/index_ten_l_loop.shtml
GFS run through 300 hr.

[ROCK]

92L looks like it dissolves into nothingness.....93L though is a big one up the EC....and a new one coming off a Africa looks formidable...

[Wx_Warrior]

New EURO....

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Wind%20850%20and%20mslp!192!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2008081300!!/

[Rainband]

That would be bad. Good thing it's not likely

[Meso]

That EURO is not an impossible outcome. Since it keeps the storm weak for the next 144 hours actually and then only really intensifies it.

[Rainband]

That EURO is not an impossible outcome. Since it keeps the storm weak for the next 144 hours actually and then only really intensifies it.

I know but that would decimate a good part of Florida. Thats why I said it's not likely meaning > I don't like it

[Meso]

00z CMC @ 240 hours




The CMC does almost the same as the EURO in terms of intensity, remaining very weak through 100 hours and then the storm only really develops in around 4 or 5 days.CMC of course has it move West once entering the GOM

[KWT]

Yeah a lot of the models don't really do anything with 92L for a while and keep conditions pretty unfavorable upto about 120-144hrs, then have it really entering a much better set-up and have it strengthening. Track on ECM just like labor day 1935 at least for the first part of the track.

[Vortex]

06Z NAM


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[KWT]

Lots of models are developing this system in a big way just before the Bahamas, despite how rubbish it looks now its still hard to ignore what some of the models are doing...

[TampaFl]

From NWS Tampa AFD:

000
FXUS62 KTBW 130805
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
405 AM EDT WED AUG 13 2008

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY - FRIDAY)...NEXT STRONGER SHORT WAVE MOVING INTO
THE SOUTHEAST U.S. IN THE EASTERN U.S. MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH
MORE ENERGY A SHORT DISTANCE UPSTREAM. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN ON THURSDAY. A COOL FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL DROP
INTO NORTH FLORIDA TODAY...SETTLE ACROSS THE NATURE COAST ON
THURSDAY...AND THEN DRIFT INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA ON FRIDAY.

FOR TODAY SOME RELATIVELY DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION WHICH WILL LIMIT OVERALL
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. BEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS THE NATURE COAST
CLOSEST TO THE APPROACHING BOUNDARY AND WILL CONTINUE WITH 60 POPS
FAR NORTH TO 20 POPS SOUTH. WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL ALSO
INCREASE WITH THE APPROACHING BOUNDARY WHICH WILL HELP PUSH ANY
CONVECTION QUICKLY EAST FAVORING THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA. FLOW WILL BE ALMOST STRONG ENOUGH FOR A LAKE WIND
ADVISORY...BUT WILL JUST HEADLINE WITH CAUTION ADVISED ON AREA
LAKES ACROSS THE NATURE COAST.

TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY DEEPER MOISTURE WILL MOVE BACK IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST AS THE BOUNDARY GETS CLOSER WITH THE MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS REMAINING TO OUR WEST. THEREFORE...THE NORTHERN HALF OF
OUR AREA WE WILL BE IN THE FAVORED POSITION FOR SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2 INCH
AMOUNTS WITH SOME HIGHER VALUES IF TRAINING SETS UP. WITH THIS IN
MIND WILL CONTINUE WITH 50 POPS NORTH TO 20 SOUTH TONIGHT AND BE
RAISING POPS 10 PERCENT ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY WITH 70 POPS
NORTH TO 40 SOUTH.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION AS THE BOUNDARY
SLIPS SOUTH INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH CHANCE
POPS ACROSS THE REGION...BUT IF THINGS LINE UP THE WAY THE LOOK LIKE
THEY COULD WE WILL BE INCREASING POPS TO AT LEAST LIKELY IN THE NEXT
DAY OR SO.

DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
THANKS TO THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW TODAY AND CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL NEAR TO A
FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THANKS TO THE CLOUDS AND WEST TO SOUTHWEST
FLOW.


.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT - TUESDAY)...FINALLY...THE RELENTLESS
EASTERN U.S. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND MOVE
SLOWLY INTO THE ATLANTIC SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
RIDGING BOTH SURFACE AND ALOFT TO BUILD OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
AND INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES...A PATTERN MORE TYPICAL OF
AUGUST THAN WHAT WE HAVE SEEN SO FAR. NOW THAT THE SUB-TROPICAL
RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BECOME ESTABLISHED TO OUR NORTH NEXT
WEEK...THE DOOR IS OPEN FOR TROPICAL WAVES MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS
THE ATLANTIC TO HAVE SOME IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER AS THEY PASS SOUTH
OF...OR OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE GFS DEPICTS ONE OF THESE
WAVES MOVING BY TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE WITH IT. THE ECMWF IS FASTER...BUT SHOWS THE WAVE OR
PERHAPS A TROPICAL LOW PASSING WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT. ONE OF THE MOST DIFFICULT ASPECTS OF FORECASTING IN THE
SUMMER IS THE TIMING AND INTENSITY OF THESE WAVES. SINCE MODELS
ARE NOT CONSISTENT AT THIS TIME...WILL LEAN TOWARD THE GFS
SOLUTION BUT ALSO BLEND TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY FOR RAIN CHANCES EACH
DAY. SINCE THE GFS IS SLOWER BRINGING ANY SIGNIFICANT WAVES IN OUR
DIRECTION...MEX POPS ARE QUITE LOW...GENERALLY ABOUT 10 TO 20
PERCENT BELOW CLIMO. CURRENT FORECAST HAS A 30/40 SPLIT FOR POPS
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...WHICH IS A LITTLE ABOVE GUIDANCE AND ABOUT
10 PERCENT BELOW CLIMO. THE LOWEST MEX POPS ARE ON SATURDAY SO I
REDUCED RAIN CHANCES TO 20 NORTH/30 SOUTH...BUT OTHERWISE MADE NO
CHANGES.


.AVIATION...SHOULD BE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ALL DAY TODAY WITH JUST
A FEW SHOWERS AROUND FROM TIME TO TIME. WILL HANDLE WITH VCSH WITH
INCREASING MID CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON.


.MARINE...WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AS
THE RIDGE AXIS REMAINS GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE AREA. THEN DURING
THE WEEKEND THE RIDGE AXIS WILL DRIFT NORTH INTO THE CENTRAL
WATERS WITH A MORE EASTERLY FLOW SETTING UP ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS
THE NORTHERN WATERS AND EXERCISE CAUTION CRITERIA ACROSS THE
CENTRAL WATERS TODAY INTO EARLY TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE AND THE
ASSOCIATED COOL FRONT MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S.


.FIRE WEATHER...NO HIGHLIGHTS.


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA 88 77 86 76 / 30 40 60 40
FMY 91 75 89 74 / 20 20 40 30
GIF 90 75 87 74 / 30 40 60 40
SRQ 88 76 86 75 / 20 30 60 40
BKV 88 73 85 72 / 40 50 70 30
SPG 88 78 86 77 / 30 40 60 40


.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.

GULF WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR TARPON
SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 NM-TARPON SPRINGS TO
SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM.

SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR ENGLEWOOD
TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 NM-ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT
20 TO 60 NM-TAMPA BAY WATERS.

SHORT TERM/MARINE/FIRE...PRC
LONG TERM/AVIATION....EJ

[Meso]

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

The 00z GFDL looks more realistic.. Tropical Storm

[KWT]

However the 00z GFDL probably does have a certain amount of land interaction that keeps it fairly weak compared to previous runs, bet if it was about 100 miles further north in terms of track it'd have a stronger hurricane.

[deltadog03]

Either way, that 00z run shows basically a hurricane at the end of the run heading towards the keys. Oh, and its still gaining strength. No matter how crappy this looks now, models are still developing it into a formatable storm.