Tropical Storm Fay Model Runs

[Derek Ortt]

I also do not see a Carolina's threat with this one.

I am not confident that the wave will even make the latitude of mainland South Florida. Looks at the global model guidance... they have landfall either in Haiti or Cuba.

Maybe the wave will take a Kate-like track

[Stormcenter]

If this one does not develop... it would become one of the bigger busts of recent memory...

Let's hope that happens. We do not need a Cat-4 anywhere near the US Coast (No s***, Sherlock!).

Actually the "phantom" hurricane that was suppose to develop off the Florida coast and move across the GOM
from east to west last season was one the biggest busts in recent memory. The hype actually drove the price of
oil way up.

[cycloneye]

Its came out late but here is the 00:00 UTC Model Guidance,SHIP also has it as a hurricane.

021
WHXX01 KWBC 130119
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0119 UTC WED AUG 13 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL922008) 20080813 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080813 0000 080813 1200 080814 0000 080814 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 17.0N 53.2W 18.5N 55.7W 19.9N 57.9W 21.1N 60.2W
BAMD 17.0N 53.2W 18.5N 55.3W 19.6N 57.2W 20.2N 59.2W
BAMM 17.0N 53.2W 18.2N 55.4W 19.4N 57.3W 20.1N 59.3W
LBAR 17.0N 53.2W 18.7N 55.3W 20.3N 57.3W 21.4N 59.3W
SHIP 25KTS 30KTS 36KTS 42KTS
DSHP 25KTS 30KTS 36KTS 42KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080815 0000 080816 0000 080817 0000 080818 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 22.2N 62.3W 23.4N 66.7W 24.0N 70.6W 25.0N 73.8W
BAMD 20.5N 61.3W 20.0N 65.7W 19.5N 69.4W 19.7N 72.6W
BAMM 20.7N 61.4W 21.1N 65.8W 21.1N 69.7W 21.8N 72.8W
LBAR 22.5N 61.2W 23.9N 65.0W 24.3N 68.1W 25.2N 69.3W
SHIP 48KTS 60KTS 66KTS 69KTS
DSHP 48KTS 60KTS 66KTS 69KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 17.0N LONCUR = 53.2W DIRCUR = 305DEG SPDCUR = 13KT
LATM12 = 15.6N LONM12 = 51.0W DIRM12 = 305DEG SPDM12 = 14KT
LATM24 = 13.8N LONM24 = 48.5W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN

[Derek Ortt]

note that the deep BAM is farther south

Weak means north in this case, strong means south (though the BAMS may be slightly too far north)

[Recurve]

The GFDL, Bams and Nogaps all seem to show a pretty decent curve northward at the end -- reaching the end of the high or feeling a trough effect there?

Something makes me distrust the GFDL on intensity but trust it on track.
It's no wonder intensity is all over when we don't know if it's going to develop. And has the UKmet dropped it?

Things that make you go hmmmmmm.

[KatDaddy]

The end model run is feeling the deep trough. Not sure this will be reality when its all said and done. It is afterall August and not October. Thats my 2 cheap cents.

[txwatcher91]

note that the deep BAM is farther south

Weak means north in this case, strong means south (though the BAMS may be slightly too far north)

Derek, is it me or do almost all of those models show a more northerly turn at the end?

[Patrick99]

If this one does not develop... it would become one of the bigger busts of recent memory...

Let's hope that happens. We do not need a Cat-4 anywhere near the US Coast (No s***, Sherlock!).

When I think bust, I think Debby. I don't think this bust could rival Debby's

[canetracker]

The GFDL, Bams and Nogaps all seem to show a pretty decent curve northward at the end -- reaching the end of the high or feeling a trough effect there?

Something makes me distrust the GFDL on intensity but trust it on track.
It's no wonder intensity is all over when we don't know if it's going to develop. And has the UKmet dropped it?

Things that make you go hmmmmmm.

I agree. The GFDL intensity is questionable but I do believe the track.

[MiamiensisWx]

I agree. The GFDL intensity is questionable but I do believe the track.

If you trust the progged GFDL track (which implies a Carolinas threat), why did you question my post?

I would appreciate some clarification.

[Vortex]

00Z 8/13 NAM rolling in

H+36

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_036l.gif

[canetracker]

I agree. The GFDL intensity is questionable but I do believe the track.

If you trust the progged GFDL track (which implies a Carolinas threat), why did you question my post?

I would appreciate some clarification.

I am only questioning your sole reliance on the intermediate run of the GFS (18z) regarding the high. I think we need to see some consistency and especially from the 00z and 12z runs. The track only, as far as it goes which is 126 hours, looks fine to me. However, beyond that I still think it will feel the effects of the ridge and get into the GOM as evidenced by the EURO which seems to have performed well thus far.
Please don't take my post offensively as I like reading your post and find them informative.

[MiamiensisWx]

I am only questioning your sole reliance on the intermediate run of the GFS (18z) regarding the high. I think we need to see some consistency and especially from the 00z and 12z runs. The track only, as far as it goes which is 126 hours, looks fine to me. However, beyond that I still think it will feel the effects of the ridge and get into the GOM as evidenced by the EURO which seems to have performed well thus far.
Please don't take my post offensively as I like reading your post and find them informative.

Thanks for the positive feedback and clarification!

[Mecklenburg]

derek ortt may be right, it's time to kiss this thing by ebye

[gatorcane]

I respectively disagree and I only wish you were right but convection is firing back right over the "center" as we speak. Buckle up folks this is going to be an interesting ride for the next several days with this one.

[lonelymike]

:uarrow:

I respectively disagree and I only wish you were right but convection is firing back right over the "center" as we speak. Buckle up folks this is going to be an interesting ride for the next several days with this one.

Hey gotta be the eternal optimist

[MiamiensisWx]

Several new 00Z runs from the guidance (including NOGAPS, BAMS, TVCC/TVCN, etc.) indicate more considerable spread and NW movement near the Bahamas...

Let's see if the big globals (GFS/ensembles and Euro) respond.

[lonelymike]

Hey Miami are you a meterology student or just a really good amauter?

[HURAKAN]

[MiamiensisWx]

Hey Miami are you a meterology student or just a really good amauter?

I'm the latter, though I'm well versed, and I'm considering a future path in atmospheric sciences.