Tropical Storm Fay Model Runs

[Derek Ortt]

I'll wait until I see what the MM5 runs say in the morning

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Well, we need to see if and when it develops first...Synoptically I would trust the EURO vs the GFS...I will say this tho, if it does develop the happy medium is basically florida.

[Noles2006]

If this one does not develop... it would become one of the bigger busts of recent memory...

Let's hope that happens. We do not need a Cat-4 anywhere near the US Coast (No s***, Sherlock!).

[Derek Ortt]

not sure if this was mentioned, but UKMET

DROPPED the cyclone in its 12Z run

The GFDL appears to be an outlier here

[Mecklenburg]

i'm not impressed at all with the GFDL's performance this year... let's wait and see, probably it's forecast is just overhyped

[MiamiensisWx]

Sure...day 5

Day 7..

Pretty hard to bust through that to get to the Carolinas...anyway olympic time..Go usa women gymnastics team go for gold!

Day 5 per 12Z (previous) run:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/12/images/gfs_500_120m.gif

Note that 18Z indicates a MUCH weaker H5 ridge over the Southeast than the 12Z run's day five contours. A slower movement and a stronger TC (coupled with a weaker upper ridge) would likely result in more interaction with the trough exiting the East Coast, allowing a northward track over the Turks and Caicos/Bahamas toward the Carolinas. Remember that many similar systems also featured initial model runs indicating a track over extreme S Florida into the Gulf of Mexico. Overall, when coupled with the seasonal trends, I would lean toward a track over Florida (i.e. Keys/Miami/S tip to Orlando, etc.) or farther east.

I think the Turks and Caicos faces a threat from this system, as it may intensify as it passes over those islands.

[canetracker]

Sure...day 5

Day 7..

Pretty hard to bust through that to get to the Carolinas...anyway olympic time..Go usa women gymnastics team go for gold!

Day 5 per 12Z (previous) run:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/12/images/gfs_500_120m.gif

Note that 18Z indicates a MUCH weaker H5 ridge over the Southeast than the 12Z run's day five contours. A slower movement and a stronger TC (coupled with a weaker upper ridge) would likely result in more interaction with the trough exiting the East Coast, allowing a northward track over the Turks and Caicos/Bahamas toward the Carolinas. Remember that many similar systems also featured initial model runs indicating a track over extreme S Florida into the Gulf of Mexico. Overall, when coupled with the seasonal trends, I would lean toward a track over Florida (i.e. Keys/Miami/S tip to Orlando, etc.) or farther east.

I think the Turks and Caicos faces a threat from this system, as it may intensify as it passes over those islands.

Do you really put that much faith in the 18z run? Aren't the 00 and 12z runs better or at least a few runs of consistency needed for predicting such a change?

[RL3AO]

Derek, why are you so certain of this? If it doesn't develop any convection tonight, that means it can't develop in the next six days it has over 28C water?

[Derek Ortt]

do not put some much emphasis on SST

If SST were everything, the Carib would crank out cat 5's twice a week.

I'm less than impressed with its SURFACE structure and its atmospheric conditions.

For the record, I did not do the outlook tonight... I was running 3-4K instead

[Jam151]

not sure if this was mentioned, but UKMET

DROPPED the cyclone in its 12Z run

The GFDL appears to be an outlier here

The new UKMET isn't all that much different from prior runs. It shows gradual intensification beyond a few days, but it's slower in this run because there is more land interaction with Cuba.

[MiamiensisWx]

Yep GFDL moves this NW at the end of the run, would really worry alot of Floridians...

You mean Bahamians and Carolinians...

[Bocadude85]

If this was to develop I find it hard to believe it would plow through that ridge.. more likely it would be a gradual turn NW through the spine of Florida entering lets say near Aventura and heading up the spine of the state.

[jaxfladude]

Actually, the progged heading suggests a threat north of south FL in the 18Z GFDL run...

This trend may indicate the operational 18Z GFS is "delaying" the building H5-H85 ridging, allowing (stronger) 92L to move toward the Carolinas as the trough passes the area.

Personally, I have never anticipated a track significantly farther west than the Florida peninsula and Monroe County Keys. Models have been demonstrating a seasonal bias toward stronger upper level ridging in the medium/long ranges.

I've always believed you can unanimously discount a western/central Gulf threat.

Sorry if wrong thread, but how much north of South Florida?
Central Flroida?
North Florida/my area?
Thanks....

Edit:
Just read latest page... some answers there...

[Vortex]

system seems poised to make into the heart of the bahamas..Where it goes from there still is fairly uncertain. In terms of strength, I think by tomorrow at this time we will be dealing with a system that is taking on "the look" By late week things may become very interesting..

[AJC3]

Yep GFDL moves this NW at the end of the run, would really worry alot of Floridians...

You mean Bahamians and Carolinians...

Not quite sure I follow your logic about the Carolinas threat. Most of the reliable global guidance, ensemble means, etc. keep strong H50 ridging in place over the western Atlantic through day 7. Where are you seeing the trend toward a big enough breach in the mid level ridge to cause a northward turn?

From the HPC web site...

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/mdltrend/gfs500.shtml
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayf ... ns_wbg.gif
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayf ... ff_wbg.gif
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayf ... ns_wbg.gif

[Ivanhater]

Yep GFDL moves this NW at the end of the run, would really worry alot of Floridians...

You mean Bahamians and Carolinians...

Not quite sure I follow your logic about the Carolinas threat. Most of the reliable global guidance, ensemble means, etc. keep strong H50 ridging in place over the western Atlantic through day 7. Where are you seeing the trend toward a big enough breach in the mid level ridge to cause a northward turn?

From the HPC web site...

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/mdltrend/gfs500.shtml
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayf ... ns_wbg.gif
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayf ... ff_wbg.gif
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayf ... ns_wbg.gif

I tried to explain this on the last page, no way this goes to the Carolinas with this ridge the models indicate but I gave up cause the olympics are more important

[MiamiensisWx]

Not quite sure I follow your logic about the Carolinas threat. Most of the reliable global guidance, ensemble means, etc. keep strong H50 ridging in place over the western Atlantic through day 7. Where are you seeing the trend toward a big enough breach in the mid level ridge to cause a northward turn?

From the HPC web site...

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/mdltrend/gfs500.shtml
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayf ... ns_wbg.gif
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayf ... ff_wbg.gif
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayf ... ns_wbg.gif

I noticed the weaker H5 ridging around day five (compared to 12Z) on the 18Z operational GFS. The GFDL also indicates slower movement of (stronger) 92L, so it would have an opportunity to move north on day five via interaction with the bypassing trough. The average (mean) of the ensembles typically reflects a bias toward stronger ridging/higher heights than the operational GFS. We may see trends toward a weaker SE ridge in the ensembles over the next several days.

I'm not arguing for a Carolinas threat, but I was suggesting the Gulf of Mexico threat may be overplayed.

Do you understand my logic?

[AJC3]

I noticed the weaker H5 ridging around day five (compared to 12Z) on the 18Z operational GFS. The GFDL also indicates slower movement of (stronger) 92L, so it would have an opportunity to move north on day five via interaction with the bypassing trough. The average (mean) of the ensembles typically reflects a bias toward stronger ridging/higher heights than the operational GFS. We may see trends toward a weaker SE ridge in the ensembles over the next several days.

I'm not arguing for a Carolinas threat, but I was suggesting the Gulf of Mexico threat may be overplayed.

Do you understand my logic?

Eek! I'd be really, really careful about using the intermediate runs (06Z/18Z) for development of any trend unless it's backed up by a trend seen in comparison of 00Z-12Z guidance. Not saying that you'll wind up incorrect this time, however I'm not at all a big fan of the GFS intermediate runs. If the 00Z shows this same trend compared to the 12Z run, then I think you may be onto something.

[SouthFloridawx]

Yes there is a red spot on GFDL indicating Category 4.

Yes that is true, but lets not forget the little red disclaimer at the bottom.

[ronjon]

I have to agree with AJC3. Major ridging developing at 138 hrs and it only gets stronger and builds west with time - even in the 18Z run. The ECMWF has even stronger ridging. It's no doubt a major pattern change from the last week of an east coast trough. If anything, I think the GFDL is showing a rightward bias - it may be more likely this system gets pushed west through the straits.