Tropical Storm Fay Model Runs

[Ivanhater]

All I see is the Bahamas so far and Florida. What models show it going into the GOM and if so where is the landfall?

Let's see, GFS and Euro? and the models that stop at the Bahamas, look at the dynamics, they obviously will continue to the Gulf..im just curious why you would make a statement why you dont think this will go in the gulf, just curious what you see that will cause such a sharp turn by the Bahamas

Well for one thing it hasn't even developed into an organized system. So what are you tracking? It may not even follow the track projected by those models into the Bahamas. We all know models change with every run. My point is it's just way too early to make a call that it's headed into the GOM. But hey you have your opinion and I have mine.

I'm tracking the main vorticity and the overall dynamic pattern that will steer 92L and all the models are falling inline with the pattern evolution. Not saying your wrong, just thought you were seeing something the models wernt when you made a statement about this not going in the gulf

[Derek Ortt]

something has to form to move into the GOM... and nothing is forming now

[SouthFloridawx]

All I see is the Bahamas so far and Florida. What models show it going into the GOM and if so where is the landfall?

Let's see, GFS and Euro? and the models that stop at the Bahamas, look at the dynamics, they obviously will continue to the Gulf..im just curious why you would make a statement why you dont think this will go in the gulf, just curious what you see that will cause such a sharp turn by the Bahamas

The Euro does show 92L in the Gulf


GFS does show this system in the Gulf, but it is not an organized one.

[Ivanhater]

something has to form to move into the GOM... and nothing is forming now

Again, most of the models don't develop this until 48 hours out and really get this going in the Southern Bahamas, so seems to be right on track

[Wx_Warrior]

The thing is, I can speak for pro mets, but if you read on here, everything is headed to the GOM before it's even an invest.

I like the EURO but prefer the GFS...The rest, I really don't pay much attention to. EURO and GFS do not have the same end result with 92L, and with 10+ days out and NOTHING formed, how could it?

There's no ill will here, but with my bro being a pro met, I do know why he doesn't come on or even post anymore.

With that being said....man, i'm ready for our "winter".

[HouTXmetro]

If I had to choose I like the performance of the EURO best.

[x-y-no]

18Z GFS carries an open wave on a similar track to earlier runs, but day 6 & 7 builds a monstrous ridge that shoves the wave SW across Cuba ...

[SouthFloridawx]

So looking at the Ramsdis loop this evening, I saw the MLC and the Lower Level Circulation farther to the south and I began to wonder. Since the MLC appears to really be taking over. The Model runs are going to have to be repositioned farther North. Perhaps this is why the models are showing such a NW'ward component to in the short term, where we could all clearly see it was moving W-WNW. The models may have sniffed out the fact that it would redevelop farther north, and hence the NW motion.

Just a thought...

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/trop_ge_vis_float1_0.html

[cycloneye]

Off-Topic=A big Caribbean and East Coast of U.S threat looms in the future.Go to Talking Tropics forum to the Long Range Models thread.

[jlauderdal]

Headed almost due west at H+84 towards the bahamas and florida given the steering.

H+84

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_084l.gif

these models are much more impressive than the speed of development on the current system

[Stormavoider]

Off-Topic=A big Caribbean and East Coast of U.S threat looms in the future.Go to Talking Tropics forum to the Long Range Models thread.

Are we in for a weird cyclone?

[SouthFloridawx]

I mean I could be wrong...

[Vortex]

awaiting the 18Z GFDL...should be out in a few minutes

[cycloneye]

18z GFDL.I see the initial plot in the right position.The intensity animation will come shortly.

WHXX04 KWBC 122328
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 92L

INITIAL TIME 18Z AUG 12

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 16.1 52.3 305./14.0
6 16.4 53.5 282./12.0
12 16.7 55.1 282./15.3
18 17.4 56.1 302./11.6
24 18.2 57.3 308./14.0
30 18.6 58.4 288./11.6
36 19.1 59.5 294./10.9
42 19.6 60.8 289./13.5
48 19.9 62.2 285./13.5
54 20.1 63.1 282./ 8.7
60 20.3 64.3 278./11.3
66 20.7 65.5 289./11.9
72 20.8 66.7 277./11.7
78 21.0 67.8 279./10.8
84 21.0 68.9 267./ 9.8
90 21.2 70.0 281./10.1
96 21.2 70.9 270./ 9.1
102 21.3 71.6 286./ 5.9
108 21.6 72.2 290./ 6.7
114 22.0 72.9 299./ 7.6
120 22.5 73.5 314./ 7.5
126 23.1 74.0 318./ 7.3

[Extremeweatherguy]

The 126 hour coordinates indicate that the latest GFDL run is slightly further north and a tad slower than the 12z run.

[Vortex]

it should be interesting to see the intensity...this run looks more like it could be a threat to peninsular florida...

[MiamiensisWx]

Actually, the progged heading suggests a threat north of south FL in the 18Z GFDL run...

This trend may indicate the operational 18Z GFS is "delaying" the building H5-H85 ridging, allowing (stronger) 92L to move toward the Carolinas as the trough passes the area.

Personally, I have never anticipated a track significantly farther west than the Florida peninsula and Monroe County Keys. Models have been demonstrating a seasonal bias toward stronger upper level ridging in the medium/long ranges.

I've always believed you can unanimously discount a western/central Gulf threat.

[jlauderdal]

18z GFDL.I see the initial plot in the right position.The intensity animation will come shortly.

WHXX04 KWBC 122328
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 92L

INITIAL TIME 18Z AUG 12

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 16.1 52.3 305./14.0
6 16.4 53.5 282./12.0
12 16.7 55.1 282./15.3
18 17.4 56.1 302./11.6
24 18.2 57.3 308./14.0
30 18.6 58.4 288./11.6
36 19.1 59.5 294./10.9
42 19.6 60.8 289./13.5
48 19.9 62.2 285./13.5
54 20.1 63.1 282./ 8.7
60 20.3 64.3 278./11.3
66 20.7 65.5 289./11.9
72 20.8 66.7 277./11.7
78 21.0 67.8 279./10.8
84 21.0 68.9 267./ 9.8
90 21.2 70.0 281./10.1
96 21.2 70.9 270./ 9.1
102 21.3 71.6 286./ 5.9
108 21.6 72.2 290./ 6.7
114 22.0 72.9 299./ 7.6
120 22.5 73.5 314./ 7.5
126 23.1 74.0 318./ 7.3

thay would scare the miami media

[Scorpion]

18Z GFDL

HOUR: 90.0 LONG: -69.96 LAT: 21.16 MIN PRESS (hPa): 970.65 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 90.93
HOUR: 96.0 LONG: -70.94 LAT: 21.16 MIN PRESS (hPa): 966.80 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 94.48
HOUR:102.0 LONG: -71.55 LAT: 21.33 MIN PRESS (hPa): 967.57 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 87.86
HOUR:108.0 LONG: -72.22 LAT: 21.58 MIN PRESS (hPa): 965.39 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 89.39
HOUR:114.0 LONG: -72.93 LAT: 21.97 MIN PRESS (hPa): 963.96 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 90.53
HOUR:120.0 LONG: -73.49 LAT: 22.51 MIN PRESS (hPa): 961.51 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 97.28
HOUR:126.0 LONG: -74.00 LAT: 23.07 MIN PRESS (hPa): 955.52 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS):108.9055

[KWT]

Yep GFDL moves this NW at the end of the run, would really worry alot of Floridians...