ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[gatorcane]

the "center" that I have been tracking all day is just about where the new small flare up of convection is located as seen on this WV loop:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-wv.html

Note this "center" seems to be moving WNW-NW today and gaining in lattitude for sure. If we see a considerable blow-up convection near this "center", 92L will be upgraded quickly to depression or minimal tropical storm status.

[storms in NC]

It really is not that bad. By Wed afternoon we should see a TD

[storms in NC]

the "center" that I have been tracking all day is just about where the new small flare up of convection is located as see on this WV loop:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-wv.html

Note this "center" seems to be moving WNW-NW today and gaining in lattitude for sure.

Is it where I got it at Gatorcane?

[gatorcane]

the "center" that I have been tracking all day is just about where the new small flare up of convection is located as see on this WV loop:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-wv.html

Note this "center" seems to be moving WNW-NW today and gaining in lattitude for sure.

Is it where I got it at Gatorcane?

yeah that looks pretty good to me.

[Extremeweatherguy]

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8conv.html

the southern center is toast, fairly large divergence there

no convergence over the old area of convection

This convergence/divergence image is from 1800 UTC, so it is now a few hours old. It will be more interesting to see what the next image shows when it comes out.

[deltadog03]

Hey, Derek...IF we do see development in the short term, it should be up near that MLC right? MLC is fairly strong..or appears to be. New storms are popping up now near that.

[KWT]

I still think this is a while away from doing anything IMO, its got no LLC and its not going to form one until we see deep convection sustain for longer then 6-9hr stints, Dolly took forever to get going because of the exact same issue.

[Bocadude85]

Will be interseting to see if convection pops later tonight.

[storms in NC]

Will be interseting to see if convection pops later tonight.

It sure will be that.

[HURAKAN]

Loop: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... is_floater

MLC can't be denied.

[BensonTCwatcher]

Can't remember the storm but it was 2 years ago (getting old) that we had a similar elongated braod circ that finally the western MLC/vortex took over and sawed into the eastern one. I wonder if that is somehow more likely on E-W elongaed low?

[HURAKAN]

Can't remember the storm but it was 2 years ago (getting old) that we had a similar elongated braod circ that finally the western MLC/vortex took over and sawed into the eastern one. I wonder if that is somehow more likely on E-W elongaed low?

2 years ago? Florence, Helene?

[hiflyer]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-wv.html

even better with water vapor....

[KWT]

Yeah clearly got a good circlation at the mid levels but the convection is nearly useless in terms of how weak it is right now, just about measureable on IR it seems!

[terrapintransit]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-wv.html

even better with water vapor....

Certainly is!

[BensonTCwatcher]

Can't remember the storm but it was 2 years ago (getting old) that we had a similar elongated braod circ that finally the western MLC/vortex took over and sawed into the eastern one. I wonder if that is somehow more likely on E-W elongaed low?

2 years ago? Florence, Helene?

Oh heck, I can't remember might have been florence. It was a little east of this system and not as far south at the time. I'll see if I can find the analog later and repost.

[BensonTCwatcher]

OK here's an intersting thought

The eddy that spun off to the south looks like it have actually helped to join up the overall circulation. The low level clouds to the east and south seem to be on the same circualr vectors now and the overall low level pattern seem less elongated??

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-rgb.html

[Bocadude85]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-wv.html

convection slowly developing

[Just Joshing You]

That water vapor loop clearly shows a center.

[KWT]

Convection is now trying to develop but compared to 4-6hrs ago its totally pathetic really in terms of convection, still these systems do tend to flare up then die off again.