ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[boca]

Hmm there is something way down to the 13N BUT I'm willing to bet its one of those eddies you sometimes see...still think odds are far higher something will develop from that MLC.

That little eddie has been there the last couple of hours generating thunderstorms.... very interesting! Remember the lowest pressures were found down south.

I doubt that's the future location of the LLC. The best ascent and LL convergence is farther north near the MLC.

You might be on to something with that eddie down south.Its developing thunderstorms like you said and it has sw inflow to it.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-avn.html

[MiamiensisWx]

I know this may sound well....

The 20:45 High Resolution visible show what appears to be the redevelopment of Thunderstorns over the MLC, we will see what the next few hours bring.

Can you post it? I can't view the 20:45 data. Thanks!

[Derek Ortt]

the UL to the north is NOT the UL that may give this problems

I am watching the UL north of Puerto Rico. That one is not moving at the moment

[Extremeweatherguy]

Jeff Masters thinks this will probably be a depression by Wednesday evening, and he is giving it a 20% chance of reaching hurricane strength by Saturday...

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMa ... amp=200808

[MiamiensisWx]

the UL to the north is NOT the UL that may give this problems

I am watching the UL north of Puerto Rico. That one is not moving at the moment

Actually, it appears to be moving lethargically west per objective observations of WV data.

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/trop_ge_wv_ls_0.html

I don't see a stationary TUTT.

[KWT]

Interesting Derek though probably got a few days headstart on this system and may be moving out of the way by then...who knows though.

[MGC]

Here is my take on 92L:

Currently there are two circulations, a weak surface one near 14N-53W and a mid level circulation near 17N-52W. The weak surface low should disipate and the mid level circulation shoud become the primiary potential for development. It may take some time for a surface circulation to develope. As such, the Lesser Antillies are IMO not at risk ATT as 92L will pass to the north of the islands. 92L should track on a more westward path one it clears 20N. Currently the ULL to 92L north is causing some shear. I am currently thinking the initial threat if 92L developes will be the Turks and Casios Islands or Bahamas.

Of course the above is MGC's opinion and not an official forecast.

[alienstorm]

I know this may sound well....

The 20:45 High Resolution visible show what appears to be the redevelopment of Thunderstorns over the MLC, we will see what the next few hours bring.

Can you post it? I can't view the 20:45 data. Thanks!

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... al/278.jpg

[storms in NC]

It is trying to spin up. I could be wrong

[Stratosphere747]

12/1745 UTC 15.7N 53.2W T1.0/1.0 92L
12/1145 UTC 15.3N 51.1W T1.0/1.0 92L

[dixiebreeze]

Seems to me the 4 Recon flights set for Wed. clearly indicate the NHC believes this is on its way to storm status soon.

[dixiebreeze]

Plan of the Day
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


000
NOUS42 KNHC 121500
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1100 AM EDT TUE 12 AUGUST 2008
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 13/1100Z TO 14/1100Z AUGUST 2008
TCPOD NUMBER.....08-073

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (APPROCACHING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS)
FLIGHT ONE -- NOAA 42
A. 13/1800Z
B. NOAA2 03DDA CYCLONE
C. 13/15OOZ
D. 19.0N 56.5W
E. 13/1630Z TO 13/2130Z
F. SFC TO 14,000 FT

FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 72
A. 13/1800Z, 14/0000Z
B. AFXXX 04DDA CYCLONE
C. 13/1515Z
D. 19.0N 56.5W
E. 13/1700Z TO 14/0000Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT THREE -- NOAA 43
A. 14/0600Z
B. NOAA3 05DDA CYCLONE
C. 14/0300Z
D. 20.0N 58.0W
E. 14/0430Z TO 14/0930Z
F. SFC TO 14,000 FT

FLIGHT FOUR -- TEAL 70
A. 14/0600Z,1200Z
B. AFXXX 06DDA CYCLONE
C. 14/0315Z
D. 20.0N 58.0W
E. 14/0500Z TO 14/1200Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES.
P-3 MISSIONS EVERY 12 HRS.

[Ivanhater]

It is trying to spin up. I could be wrong

When people have to draw in banding, it usually means its not

[Bocadude85]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

[HURAKAN]

Seems to me the 4 Recon flights set for Wed. clearly indicate the NHC believes this is on its way to storm status soon.

All flights scheduled are a precautionary measure as it's close to land. It doesn't indicate that the NHC is sure it will develop tomorrow. No one can be sure.

[Aquawind]

I know this may sound well....

The 20:45 High Resolution visible show what appears to be the redevelopment of Thunderstorns over the MLC, we will see what the next few hours bring.

Can you post it? I can't view the 20:45 data. Thanks!

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... al/278.jpg

Certainly is refiring near the MLC.. Inflow continues.

[Derek Ortt]

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8conv.html

the southern center is toast, fairly large divergence there

no convergence over the old area of convection

[Aquawind]

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8conv.html

the southern center is toast, fairly large divergence there

no convergence over the old area of convection

Consolidating a better possibility now.

[KWT]

Hmmm convection really is lacking now in terms of depth, only got a little area of deeper convection in the middle of the MLC and a little bit of deeper convection over that southern eddy:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/avn-l.jpg

[Derek Ortt]

the P3 flights are not tasked by NHC. They were tasked by EMC for HWRF