Tropical Storm Fay Model Runs

[greels]

Unless I'm missing something here, it will hit us here in the T&C first......

we are not even remotely prepared for any type of weather event here....we've missed the gun so many times here in the past and "complacency" seems to be the name of the game on these islands which has me a tad bit concerned.

[PTrackerLA]

Not liking the GFDL or EURO at ALL. The next three weeks will be stressful enough as it is and I can't even imagine having to contend with a major storm entering the gulf...work will be insane. Not currently impressed with 92L and hopefully it stays that way.

[Vortex]

18Z NAM continues stronger each run and if this run verified then folks in the Bahamas anf Florida would be dealing with a significant cyclone.


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... el_l.shtml

[gatorcane]

indeed can you post an image showing what the end of the run looks like? The loop takes forever to load on my computer. thx

[Vortex]

Headed almost due west at H+84 towards the bahamas and florida given the steering.

H+84

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_084l.gif

[gatorcane]

Yikes if that verifies

NAM and GFDL on board with a major cane for the Bahamas

[Scorpion]

Yes that model run is very interesting lol

[Extremeweatherguy]

The NAM also seems to speed this system along pretty fast!

hr 60 - http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_060l.gif

hr 84 - http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_084l.gif

If the speed the model shows 92L moving between hour 60 and hour 84 continues, then this system could easily be knocking on the door of Florida by as early as Sunday evening (the 17th) or very early Monday morning (the 18th).

[KWT]

Yep very similar to the GFDL indeed and at that resolution it would probably be suggesting a pretty powerful system there...

[gatorcane]

Well I have to say there may be just enough model support now to start taking this thing seriously IMHO. The track is fairly consistent (WNW movement and a bend to the W) and two well-respected models predict a major hurricane. Things will change but I think we have a general idea of where 92L may go if it develops

[Stormcenter]

Not liking the GFDL or EURO at ALL. The next three weeks will be stressful enough as it is and I can't even imagine having to contend with a major storm entering the gulf...work will be insane. Not currently impressed with 92L and hopefully it stays that way.

Don't worry I don't think this one (If it develops) will make it into the GOM.

[Stratosphere747]

Well I have to say there may be just enough model support now to start taking this thing seriously IMHO. The track is fairly consistent (WNW movement and a bend to the W) and two well-respected models predict a major hurricane.

The NAM is a well respected tropical model?

[gatorcane]

Well I have to say there may be just enough model support now to start taking this thing seriously IMHO. The track is fairly consistent (WNW movement and a bend to the W) and two well-respected models predict a major hurricane.

The NAM is a well respected tropical model?

not nearly as well-respected as the GFDL though. If the NAM alone predicted a major cane, I probably wouldn't pay much attention to it.

[Stormcenter]

Well I have to say there may be just enough model support now to start taking this thing seriously IMHO. The track is fairly consistent (WNW movement and a bend to the W) and two well-respected models predict a major hurricane. Things will change but I think we have a general idea of where 92L may go if it develops

But there is nothing at the moment to take seriously. Anyway I think the best thing to do is what most should have done already....be prepared just in case and monitor the NHC Outlooks. Otherwise there is not much you and I or anyone else on this board can do about was does or does not happen with 92L.

[Ivanhater]

Not liking the GFDL or EURO at ALL. The next three weeks will be stressful enough as it is and I can't even imagine having to contend with a major storm entering the gulf...work will be insane. Not currently impressed with 92L and hopefully it stays that way.

Don't worry I don't think this one (If it develops) will make it into the GOM.

When almost all the models show this going in the Gulf? I would rethink that forecast...

[Stormcenter]

Well I have to say there may be just enough model support now to start taking this thing seriously IMHO. The track is fairly consistent (WNW movement and a bend to the W) and two well-respected models predict a major hurricane.

The NAM is a well respected tropical model?

not nearly as well-respected as the GFDL though. If the NAM alone predicted a major cane, I probably wouldn't pay much attention to it.

Before your crown the GFDL as king of all models be warned that it has been known to have many hiccups like the other models

[Stormcenter]

Not liking the GFDL or EURO at ALL. The next three weeks will be stressful enough as it is and I can't even imagine having to contend with a major storm entering the gulf...work will be insane. Not currently impressed with 92L and hopefully it stays that way.

Don't worry I don't think this one (If it develops) will make it into the GOM.

When almost all the models show this going in the Gulf? I would rethink that forecast...

All I see is the Bahamas so far and Florida. What models show it going into the GOM and if so where is the landfall?

[Stratosphere747]

Well I have to say there may be just enough model support now to start taking this thing seriously IMHO. The track is fairly consistent (WNW movement and a bend to the W) and two well-respected models predict a major hurricane.

The NAM is a well respected tropical model?

not nearly as well-respected as the GFDL though. If the NAM alone predicted a major cane, I probably wouldn't pay much attention to it.

Not sure if I'd but to much into the intensity forecast of the GFDL either. That cat 5 forecast of the GFDL with Dolly into Galveston was just a touch overblown.

[Ivanhater]

All I see is the Bahamas so far and Florida. What models show it going into the GOM and if so where is the landfall?

Let's see, GFS and Euro? and the models that stop at the Bahamas, look at the dynamics, they obviously will continue to the Gulf..im just curious why you would make a statement why you dont think this will go in the gulf, just curious what you see that will cause such a sharp turn by the Bahamas

[Stormcenter]

All I see is the Bahamas so far and Florida. What models show it going into the GOM and if so where is the landfall?

Let's see, GFS and Euro? and the models that stop at the Bahamas, look at the dynamics, they obviously will continue to the Gulf..im just curious why you would make a statement why you dont think this will go in the gulf, just curious what you see that will cause such a sharp turn by the Bahamas

Well for one thing it hasn't even developed into an organized system. So what are you tracking? It may not even follow the track projected by those models into the Bahamas. We all know models change with every run. My point is it's just way too early to make a call that it's headed into the GOM. But hey you have your opinion and I have mine.