ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[storms in NC]

I'm starting to shift focus to 93L

The NHC gives 92L a High Probability of development, convection has been building since last night, there are signs of more defined circulation developing, and this is very close to the islands. Not sure how you can just disregard this system. Maybe 93L has a better chance IYO, but it's >1000 miles away from any land mass, I would think your focus should be on 92L until it is certain it will not develop. I'm sure folks in the BV Islands are concerned.

How do you think the folks felt on the east coast when Christabel came around and rode the coast. Any thing could had happen if it went west by a few miles would have been a different story. But every one was looking at one that had not developed yet. Sorry but I think most of the folks from Ga to Va was a little upset over the little support they got. But thing turned out fine in a way We did not get the rain every one needed.
Okay now back to 92L I think this one and the 93 will develope and not so sure of path for it is to soon really. But I don't see it going into the Gulf. Fl maybe not the gulf. Could do a Ernesto For 92L Or Like some one said a Floyd path? It is anyones guess at this point. We just need to watch the Island first.

[GreenSky]

I think this has a much better surface feature than people realize and 48 hours will put all this to talk.

The SW part is just a compressed area due to the guiding ridge malforming the system. It is obvious the strengthening center will work that out quickly.

You may be right about there being a "surface feature", but lethal shear tendencies might put 92L's future to the past in 48 hours. It is already looking like shear is weakening it.

[CourierPR]

there is for sure a surface feature but its clearly elonged.

I disagree. I think you are missing the forest for the trees and failing to consider a rather vigorous center is right under the tight curved center.

Sanibel, I think you may be on to something. I, too, don't believe 92L is in as bad a shape as some think it is.

[Weatherfreak14]

I think its not in bad shape, just a little weird looking from normal development.... Heres the latest shear map.

[jasons2k]

Still a disorganized mess but I still think it will develop down the line.

[Emmett_Brown]

Jeff Masters does a nice analysis of this morning's quickscat pass at his blog:

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=1016&tstamp=200808

Basically, 92L is a sharp wave (one might say it is a closed elongated circulation), but there are no obvious west winds, so sharp wave is probably about it for now. He thinks it will likely be a TD by Wed night.

[CourierPR]

Lethal shear tendencies? AccuWeather said this morning that the system is heading into an area of favorable winds.

[HURAKAN]

Lethal shear tendencies? AccuWeather said this morning that the system is heading into an area of favorable winds.

They also had Bertha making landfall in the Carolinas. I take everything they say with a grain of salt.

[gatorcane]

Looks like the trough NW of 92L is really having an impact now as it steers 92L more NW now.

To me it seems 92L is gaining some lattitude decreasing its chances of a Caribbean runner. A path through the NE Leewards or just NE of it seems plausible but still not certain.

[Aric Dunn]

there is for sure a surface feature but its clearly elonged.

I disagree. I think you are missing the forest for the trees and failing to consider a rather vigorous center is right under the tight curved center.

Sanibel, I think you may be on to something. I, too, don't believe 92L is in as bad a shape as some think it is.

Look, it is slowly organizing i agree. But i assure you there is no "well" defind center. I believe one will eventually take shape close to the northern area of convection throughout the day and tomorrow, but right now its still in the process and needs more time. besides the inflow on the SW side is very minimal and arguing for a well defined center is pointless because you cant have one unless you have well defined inflow in all quadrants! will it happend possibly. but i can see at least two seperate vortices with the most notible one closer to the northern convective blob. So right now no

[HURAKAN]

Lethal shear tendencies? AccuWeather said this morning that the system is heading into an area of favorable winds.

They also had Bertha making landfall in the Carolinas. I take everything they say with a grain of salt.

Code: Select all

*   ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST       *
                    *        GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED            *
                    *      INVEST  AL922008  08/12/08  12 UTC   *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
SHEAR (KTS)        8    14    10     6     4     6    15    11    16    10    13     3     9

AccuWeather may be paying attention to SHIPS.

[HURAKAN]

Looks like the trough NW of 92L is really having an impact now as it steers 92L more NW now.

To me it seems 92L is gaining some lattitude decreasing its chances of a Caribbean runner. A path through the NE Leewards or just NE of it seems plausible but still not certain.

[gatorcane]

great picture Hurakan showing the large-scale synoptics that will steer 92L....the trough axis extending from the TUTT (north of 92L) to the NW should steer it WNW to NW over the next 24-48 hours and then as the trough over the East coast of the CONUS pulls out to the NE, the Bermuda High ridge should build in strong behind it sending 92L west.

[Tropicswatcher]

I'm with Derek that the northeast blob is a mid level circulation. It obviously a not well organized system, since the low level feature is not underneath the mid level one.

[GreenSky]

Jeff Masters does a nice analysis of this morning's quickscat pass at his blog:

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=1016&tstamp=200808

Basically, 92L is a sharp wave (one might say it is a closed elongated circulation), but there are no obvious west winds, so sharp wave is probably about it for now. He thinks it will likely be a TD by Wed night.

Wow! Some great news for the Bahamas and Southeast U.S.! I quote Jeff, "Wind shear is 5-10 knots, and is forecast to remain below 10 knots for the next two days, then increase to 15-20 knots Thursday night through Saturday, thanks to strong upper-level winds from the northwest."

So, it does look like if wind shear does not impact 92L enough to kill it now, it should later...or at least make 92L a laughable system that gives beneficial rains to parts of the South that need it.

[xironman]

41040 is now southeast, http://ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41040, so something could be south of it.

edit go it backwards, and wrong

[HURAKAN]

41040 reporting SW and WSW winds.

Code: Select all

1550   WSW ( 246 deg )    6.6 kts
1540   SW ( 231 deg )   7.8 kts
1530   SW ( 215 deg )   5.6 kts
1520   SSW ( 207 deg )   3.7 kts
1510   SSW ( 192 deg )   2.5 kts
1500   SSE ( 147 deg )   2.3 kts
   

[Aric Dunn]

as for the upper low ... the gfs forecasts it to pull westward
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[CourierPR]

Jeff Masters does a nice analysis of this morning's quickscat pass at his blog:

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=1016&tstamp=200808

Basically, 92L is a sharp wave (one might say it is a closed elongated circulation), but there are no obvious west winds, so sharp wave is probably about it for now. He thinks it will likely be a TD by Wed night.

Wow! Some great news for the Bahamas and Southeast U.S.! I quote Jeff, "Wind shear is 5-10 knots, and is forecast to remain below 10 knots for the next two days, then increase to 15-20 knots Thursday night through Saturday, thanks to strong upper-level winds from the northwest."

So, it does look like if wind shear does not impact 92L enough to kill it now, it should later...or at least make 92L a laughable system that gives beneficial rains to parts of the South that need it.

Any impact for the US would be next week, I believe. Don't party just yet.

[gatorcane]

Well looks like the "center" underneath the blob (that is waning now) seems to be taking off IMHO, its around 15-16N heading around 290 (WNW). If you extrapolate the movement it would just skim the NE Leewards or go through the NE Leewards.

http://metofis.rsmas.miami.edu/~dortt/s ... 1_loop.gif