Tropical Storm Fay Model Runs

[Derek Ortt]

Looking at the latest visible with a collegue on GAPR, we both agree that the center does remain near 14N, probably closer to 14.5N

[DESTRUCTION5]

I agree with MW the 14-14.5 does not look plausable..

[Extremeweatherguy]

Looking at the latest visible with a collegue on GAPR, we both agree that the center does remain near 14N, probably closer to 14.5N

I agree. The center appears to be near 14.5N, 52.2W.

[abajan]

one problem... the model initial heading is wrong. The center is well to the south near 14N and i moving nearly due west. This one is likely to enter the Carib, not pass north of it

Looking at all the satellite pix, I find that hard to swallow. But you're the Pro Met and I'm just a layman. Then again, you said "the center" which isn't the same thing as the convection.

[deltadog03]

Well, I think the center...if one is more than likely in the midlevels...if there is a LLC, it looks maybe on the SW side of the big blob.

[storms in NC]

At 5Am this morning the L or center was at 14.2 about and 48.9

[Sanibel]

Anxious for tonight's GFDL run.

[Ed Mahmoud]

I still say the center is broad and elliptical, extending from about 14ºN, 55.5ºW, to about 16ºN, 50ºW.


Or rather badly organized. Perhaps there is a center in between. ¿Quien Sabes?

[deltadog03]

http://s60.photobucket.com/albums/h27/d ... ynight.gif

if that is correct...hm...

[gatorcane]

Deltadog that graphic above is not what residents in the Bahamas, FL Keys, and Southern Florida want to see. A rapidly strengthening system approaching from the ESE over SSTs exceeding 85F and low shear.

[BOPPA]

Ditto - on not wanting that to happen, being in SW Fl. - and spending the
next week in Sanibel..................hope that all does not "pan out".

[Kennethb]

Not that I am going to take any model and but all of my eggs in one result, but what ever happened to the FSU super model. And aren't there some other double secret models that that the NHC and academics are testing?

[BensonTCwatcher]

http://s60.photobucket.com/albums/h27/deltadog03/?action=view&current=GFSUpperlevelFridaynight.gif

if that is correct...hm...

Kind of signals a return to more "classic" season of late August early Sept. TC approaches at the FL peninsula with factors as to track i.e. ridging and weakness or "to recurve, or not to recurve....that is the question..." being in NC I don't like to see any TC's in that neck of the woods this time of year on models or otherwise.

[gtsmith]

here i am back to worrying about whether I should cancel my trip or not...i dont want to be gone when and if this storm hits SE Florida...wouldn't be able to forgive myself leaving my wife and mother in law alone...ugh...what to do what to do

but latest sat loops i can def see circulation...but poor cloud structure...not much outflow...but that could change in a heartbeat...i went to bed last night thinking we'd see some real dev overnight, but that didn't really occur...i agree center seems around 14.5 (no make that 15)...with almost due west movement...

[Stormcenter]

Personally I'm still not concerned about this and considering we don't have
closed center to fix on the models are not very reliable at this
point. We all know the weather patterns can change day by day so
what they are saying now may not be necessarily the case tomorrow.
The point is it's way too early to make any calls like it's going into the
GOM or hitting the East coast on 92L.

[Steve H.]

Seems like the 12Z GFS wants to de-couple this wave, moving one piece to the west just north of the DR and moving one north to a somewhat stationary position, but showing both under a building ridge - wagons west. Mind you its early in the game, but taken verbatum is a bit of a disturbing trend.

[sweetpea]

Ditto - on not wanting that to happen, being in SW Fl. - and spending the
next week in Sanibel..................hope that all does not "pan out".

I have been watching this closely and am getting a little nervous. I am moving from North Florida (by Daytona) to Ft. Myers on the 22nd. I am just hoping for no bad weather. This move has been stressful enough!!

[ronjon]

Seems like the 12Z GFS wants to de-couple this wave, moving one piece to the west just north of the DR and moving one north to a somewhat stationary position, but showing both under a building ridge - wagons west. Mind you its early in the game, but taken verbatum is a bit of a disturbing trend.

Actually steve the way I looked at it was that 93L gets pulled north and decouples and trapped within the mid-level ridge and 92L simply maintains wave status and jugs west through the straits toward western Cuba.

[Extremeweatherguy]

I'm also a little stressed about this one. I have a flight on Tuesday, August 19th, and I hope that this storm doesn't cause it any problems. The best case scenarios would be for either A) No Florida landfall B) Landfall on the 17th/18th or C) Landfall on the 20th or beyond.

[gatorcane]

anybody have an updated spaghetti model run please?

Thx