ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[cycloneye]

deltadog,the plane is ready to depart from St Croix.

Who wants to make a recon discussion thread?

[HURAKAN]

I'm starting to shift focus to 93L

Derek I respect your opinion but why especially since 92L if it develops poses more of a threat to land than 93L at this time.

I give 92L a high probability of development (as I said before about 60% at this time).

I agree on the fact that 93L is not a treat in the near future and it looks much poorly organized than 92L.

[cheezyWXguy]

To further what MW was saying, it does appear that there is def. more turning now on that blob of storms. Still not sure if its at the SFC yet, but it does appear its trying.

Im pretty sure theres no more turning than there was this morning. The only difference is that the sun is no longer obscuring the low clouds. This happened yesterday too

good point....and your prolly right. Also, a bit "hazy" on the edges...So, that tells me that outflow is also starting to improve..(someone else said that as well)

Yeah it does look a bit better than before. It looks like the convection is beginning to rotate with the storm as opposed to just being on top. However cloud tops in the burst are now warming a bit, but this is not a problem for the storm because it looks like there is now a small burst directly over the estimated center, based on IR/VIS

[deltadog03]

I respect Derek's opinion very much as well. He has his reasons for being so low on the development probs. I would give this a 45% chance of developing.

[Derek Ortt]

the reason why I am still thinking Carib is that southern center. Until that dissipates, or clearly reforms (as some models that I ran last night suggest), this is likely Carib

For the record, a storm would be a nice distraction for me that I'd really enjoy about now. This is one of the very rare times I want a storm to form.

[Extremeweatherguy]

I think it has dual centers...Like Erin in 1995:

Synoptic History
Erin formed from a tropical wave that crossed from the coast of Africa to the tropical eastern Atlantic Ocean on 22 July 1995. A large area of disturbed weather and two distinct low-level circulation centers accompanied the wave. The circulation centers were oriented from northwest to southeast and moved in tandem toward the west-northwest over the following five days.



By the 27th, both circulations were generating deep convection a few hundred miles to the northeast of the Leeward Islands. A day later, meteorologists at the NHC Tropical Analysis and Forecast Branch (TAFB, formerly TSAF as in figures) and the NESDIS Synoptic Analysis Branch (SAB) assigned Dvorak technique T-numbers of 1.5 to the trailing cloud cluster.

This system may wind up being similar to Erin in more ways than one.. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Erin_1995_track.png

Erin's path was eerily similar to what may happen with 92L.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[alienstorm]

I say now LLC has developed at approx 15.7N 52.0 W moving WNW/NW ....

[greels]

I may be a party of "one", but I am watching this closely here in the Turks & Caicos Islands.....

[cheezyWXguy]

Derek Ortt, who I take very seriously, says only a 10-15% chance that 92L develops.

He said the same thing about Dolly, with plenty of predictions about her heading into Honduras....

(Derek, you're a good met, but someday you'll learn not to be quite so definitive and blunt with every one of your statements.)

Im not sure I would tell Derek off, especially by telling him what to do in a profession you dont take part of, so Im not sure I would be talking if I were you. Hes very accurate much of the time. Sometimes hes a little more against development than most people here, but its better to be conservative than overhyping.

[Derek Ortt]

I think what is being seen on the vis is the MLC. It is more visible now because the convection has weakened greatly

[Aric Dunn]

Well considering that there is obviously a fairly elongated broad circulation, I have little doubt that they wont find a closed wind field. But right now i dont think they will close off a "center" it at this moment is too broad. And there is slightly more vorticity closer to the northern convective blob and that is likely where a center will close off if convection maintains.

one interesting note though that would suggest that there is no center is the bouy at about 14.4n 53w that has and east wind right not (well an hour or so ago). the location of that bouy is SOUTH of the blob of convection.. so recon is probably going to have a hard time finding much of anything at this point except a broad possible closed wind field.

[Sanibel]

However cloud tops in the burst are now warming a bit

Intensification pulse. It already did a big one yesterday that looked like it was wiping out.

[GreenSky]

I respect Derek's opinion very much as well. He has his reasons for being so low on the development probs. I would give this a 45% chance of developing.

Thanks for the insights. What will be most critical is if 92L can maintain its circulation and a respectable amount of convection as it goes through some unfavorable upper level wind patterns the next day or two. If it survives, than I think odds are very good for development. The chances that it survives are looking 50/50 to me. (Correct me if I am wrong)

However, given the current unfavorable shear tendencies around 92L, I think 92L may not develop until late tomorrow evening or early Thursday morning,

[Aric Dunn]

I think what is being seen on the vis is the MLC. It is more visible now because the convection has weakened greatly

I agree, paying close attention and tracking low level clouds you can rule out any significant surface feature on the southern portion. the wind feild down there is weak and ther is only miniaml cloud lines with any sort of curature.

[cheezyWXguy]

Well considering that there is obviously a fairly elongated broad circulation, I have little doubt that they wont find a closed wind field. But right now i dont think they will close off a "center" it at this moment is too broad. And there is slightly more vorticity closer to the northern convective blob and that is likely where a center will close off if convection maintains.

one interesting note though that would suggest that there is no center is the bouy at about 14.4n 53w that has and east wind right not (well an hour or so ago). the location of that bouy is SOUTH of the blob of convection.. so recon is probably going to have a hard time finding much of anything at this point except a broad possible closed wind field.

Im not so sure its super elongated right now, but it looks like theres 2 centers, as I believe Derek said before. It almost looks like 2 round circulations have been connected

[Aric Dunn]

Well considering that there is obviously a fairly elongated broad circulation, I have little doubt that they will find a closed wind field. But right now i dont think they will close off a "center", it at this moment is too broad. And there is slightly more vorticity closer to the northern convective blob and that is likely where a center will close off if convection maintains.

one interesting note though that would suggest that there is no center is the bouy at about 14.4n 53w that has and east wind right not (well an hour or so ago). the location of that bouy is SOUTH of the blob of convection.. so recon is probably going to have a hard time finding much of anything at this point except a broad possible closed wind field.

fixed my wording.. oopps

[Sanibel]

I think this has a much better surface feature than people realize and 48 hours will put all this to talk.

The SW part is just a compressed area due to the guiding ridge malforming the system. It is obvious the strengthening center will work that out quickly.

[Aric Dunn]

I think this has a much better surface feature than people realize and 48 hours will put all this to talk.

there is for sure a surface feature but its clearly elonged.

and yes multiple/ vorticies centers is very typical of broad elongated circulations

[Sanibel]

there is for sure a surface feature but its clearly elonged.

I disagree. I think you are missing the forest for the trees and failing to consider a rather vigorous center is right under the tight curved center.

[HURAKAN]