ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[carolina_73]

The weather pattern right now sure is strange. HP to the northeast and a developing LP system in the deep south moving east. That is a wintertime setup. If it was January we would be getting either some snow or an ice storm. That is very strange this time of year. Well...it looks like Recon might be flying out today.

[cycloneye]

12:00 UTC Best Track position:

AL, 92, 2008081212, , BEST, 0, 155N, 508W, 25, 1007, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,

[hurricanefloyd5]

12:00 UTC Best Track position:

AL, 92, 2008081212, , BEST, 0, 155N, 508W, 25, 1007, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,

dose this mean a TD is forming???????

[deltadog03]

The weather pattern right now sure is strange. HP to the northeast and a developing LP system in the deep south moving east. That is a wintertime setup. If it was January we would be getting either some snow or an ice storm. That is very strange this time of year. Well...it looks like Recon might be flying out today.

I agree...We are going to have STRATIFORM rains in GA today.. Almost unheard of for august. I really think summer is about over for the SE...Ok, sorry for the OT there.

[caneman]

I'm a little concerned about the pattern here in West Fl. Clearwater as well. It rained all of July. There are times it could be mistaken for Fall with cool breezes and lack of humidity from time to time.. The troughs keep dipping down much like the one that turned Charley. Hope nothing shakes loose in the Caribb or E.Gom at the wrong time.

[cycloneye]

Latest pic at 9:15 AM EDT:

[bvigal]

12:00 UTC Best Track position:

AL, 92, 2008081212, , BEST, 0, 155N, 508W, 25, 1007, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,

This makes good sense from what I see on satellite. The 1007mb was correctly forecast on 6am surface map(below), but motion in this 12z model data: DIRCUR = 305DEG SPDCUR = 12KT is much more northward. (Hope it's correct, miss all the islands!)

[gatorcane]

I know this was posted several pages back but I really hope this TAFB forecast changes as it is showing two possible tropical cyclones getting underneath the Bermuda High heading WNW

[BensonTCwatcher]

We're going to have to consolidate a center before we see if this becomes likely to go into the Gulf or not. Once it crosses the axis of that ULL it may gain lattitude in earnest i.e. not from center relocation. This could easily consolidate and establish the center further south as well. That will make a significant difference on whether this goes carribean or not mid-term. It's why we are all here...

[Blown Away]

I'm sniffing a "Special Disturbance Statement" if 92L continues to improve.

[tolakram]

From 4AM ish, if I read that right. No closed low that I can see.

[x-y-no]

I'm seeing a very elongated circulation, extending from under the big blob of convection SW to about 14N 53W. Actually not so sure it,a a circulation - could just be a very sharp wave axis.

I still think this will develop, but right now it's not much more organized than it was two days ago.

[gatorcane]

Florida Keys AFD snippet on what I assume is the wave attached to 92L:

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...LARGE SCALE PATTERN IS INDICATED TO CHANGE
WITH HEIGHT RISES OVER FLORIDA AND THE BAHAMAS. WILL HAVE TO WATCH A
TROPICAL WAVE AS IT APPROACHES THE KEYS LONGITUDE BY SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT. ASIDE FROM ANY TROPICAL WAVES IMPACTING THE KEYS...A
LIGHT SURFACE TO 400 MB FLOW WILL FAVOR NORMAL MESOSCALE PROCESSES.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/productview.php ... n=1&max=51

[BensonTCwatcher]

I'm seeing a very elongated circulation, extending from under the big blob of convection SW to about 14N 53W. Actually not so sure it,a a circulation - could just be a very sharp wave axis.

I still think this will develop, but right now it's not much more organized than it was two days ago.

I agree, also there is still an anti-cyclone aloft and today I'd expect it to hold steady or strenghten due to relaxed shear. It will still have to battle past some likely 20kt shear before it clears the ULL to the NW of the center. After that I'd expect to see it develop fairly quickly i.e. 24-36 hrs or so. This is NOT a forecast. (See S2K disclaimer and refer to NHC for official information)

[deltadog03]

That means VERY light shear... (gator's post)

[tolakram]

Jeff Masters agrees with the elongated low ...

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMa ... amp=200808

[CourierPR]

AccuWeather says that upper level winds are favorable.

[gatorcane]

the low is elongated so I don't expect it to become a depression until it becomes more consolidated.

The next 24-48 hours are going to be the toughest for this invest as it interacts with the ULL trough axis. But if it can pass the axis in tact, it is going to have very favorable UL winds and alot of real estate to work with more than likely.

[BensonTCwatcher]

One other thing. There is a decent amount of dry air about, so it may be a question of dry air capping the convection. As derek pointed out earlier not enough inflow and competing areas of uplift would keep it from consolidating. You can clearly see the ULL holding steady and the dry air http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html BUT I do think this will get past all of that since there is enough circ energy in the broad low. It will pop all too soon I think

[Sanibel]

We had rain showers again this morning. West wind.

That elongated convection on the west side of 92L will pull in and form a feeder band of moisture like a reserve energy pack when and if 92L gets strong enough to pull it in. I think 92L will form so we are just adding bandwidth here until we see where the track resolves in terms of the Antilles tomorrow or the next day. We could be talking a different airmass and different support conditions north of the islands so I won't guess on intensity. What we have to watch for is a track north of Cuba and a hook turn up the west coast of Florida for us west coast worriers.