ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[HURAKAN]

RECON could do at least one alpha pattern. If they flew from Biloxi to Bertha, then they can fly from St. Croix to 92L.

[Derek Ortt]

the QUIKSCAT has the circulation near 14N, which is where the Dvorak estimates have had it

[bvigal]

bvigal, you're right about the dry air.But it's been a combination of both dry air and shear during the past 12 hours or so, as the system was heads into an area of some 30kt shear, which didn't look like it was going to last too long, one was able to see the cloud tops being ripped on the visible loops. Dry air has been a problem with this storm for a while and I have a feeling it will do a lot better once it passed the heaviest area of dry air, and into the lower shear.

Yeah, that makes lots of sense to me. But, doesn't NHC see the same thing? Why the red circle? Is it because they expect the shear to drop?

[hurricanefloyd5]

I understand that models dose a flip flop but I still think even thought the models still flip flop that this storm still "COULD" hit florida but the question is where in FLORIDA (IF IT HITS FLORIDA) will it hit, south, central or north florida???????

[HURAKAN]

[Blown Away]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
304 AM EDT TUE AUG 12 2008

.DISCUSSION...

WED ...UPPER TROUGH OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST AS A DRY AIRMASS OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES PIVOTS EAST. THIS WILL PUSH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER S FLORIDA AND AN AREA OF INCREASED MOISTURE AND SURFACE CONVERGENCE SETTLES ACROSS THE NORTH PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS ALONG WITH A WESTERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL PILE THUNDERSTORMS ON THE FL EAST COAST RESULTING IN POPS 30 AND 40 POPS. DEEP MOISTURE WILL SLIDE NORTH BRIEFLY LATE WED AS A DEVELOPING LOW ALONG THE FRONT IN N FL WILL KICK OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST.

THU-SAT...RAIN CHANCES REMAIN ABOVE CLIMO AS RIDGE AXIS REMAINS TO THE SOUTH AND HIGH PWS COMBINED WITH MOSTLY WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS.

SUN-MON...BY SUNDAY A MORE EASTERLY FLOW SETS UP AND A SERIES OF WEAK EASTERLY WAVES PUSH THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

Talking about 92L

[storms in NC]

Save the fuel till it be come something more like a TD and would get close to the Islands. But would give them time to do what they need to do to get ready for it.

[cycloneye]

I understand that models dose a flip flop but I still think even thought the models still flip flop that this storm still "COULD" hit florida but the question is where in FLORIDA (IF IT HITS FLORIDA) will it hit, south, central or north florida???????

Way early to say about any area of Florida being at landfall if it does occur at all.

[OURAGAN]

I agree with that circulation at 14N.
I think 14,5N/52,5W.

[Gustywind]

Well, I must admit to being totally confused now! We have a red circle from NHC. We have "too weak" for dvorak. We have different surface maps from different branches of NOAA. I think even the experts could honestly say "we really don't know what this will do".

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/WATL_latest.gif - (6z) moving almost due west, toward Guadeloupe, 1008 to 1007mb in 6hrs. Model guidance 6z puts motion at 325 degrees true! Look at that surface map arrow - NO WAY it's EVEN CLOSE to 325degrees.

Here's the most interesting thing I found this morning. Between this low and the islands, still a big wad of dry air, shown on precipitable water through 6z. Maybe it's this, not shear, that's hampering what would otherwise be expected development?

Good point bvigal it's the confusion, nothing is clear so i'm monitoring closely the situation in case of
http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... Tagant.jpg
Seems that's another round of soldid convection is occuring always on the southwestern peripheriphy of 92L...

[RL3AO]

I understand that models dose a flip flop but I still think even thought the models still flip flop that this storm still "COULD" hit florida but the question is where in FLORIDA (IF IT HITS FLORIDA) will it hit, south, central or north florida???????

Not even a specialist from the NHC could answer that question.

[Gustywind]

I agree with that circulation at 14N.
I think 14,5N/52,5W.

Hi Ouragan, how are you?
I sent you a PM do you received it?
I'm agree with you there's maybe something in this area at 14,N 52,5W....

[Dean4Storms]

I agree with that circulation at 14N.
I think 14,5N/52,5W.

Right on, that is the circulation.

[carolina_73]

the QUIKSCAT has the circulation near 14N, which is where the Dvorak estimates have had it

Is Quikscat showing a semi-closed circulation???

[HURAKAN]

Loop: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _floater_1



The other loop I was watching didn't get me the whole picture.

[cheezyWXguy]

Loop: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _floater_1



The other loop I was watching didn't get me the whole picture.

I think the center is actually on the southern end of the large blob of convection. Thats where the low clouds are spiraling in to...why do people here think its a mlc? Is it because the sun is obscurring the low level clouds? I dont know if its closed or not but that is definitely at the surface.

[Hyperstorm]

The Weather Channel just got confirmation that the hurricane hunters will indeed be flying to this system this afternoon at 2pm. Meteorologist Nicole Mitchell has advised them that she will be on that flight.

To those that said that the NHC won't send planes east of 55W, that's not exactly true. Yes, there is a line there, but there's definitely been times in the past when they have reached the system between 50-55W.

[gatorcane]

well 92L, if it develops, is what I kept warning about a couple of weeks ago when the discussions were around the persistent EC trough and how the pattern looked to be setting up for a season of recurves. I prefer to see a strong Bermuda High in June-July so that the long-wave pattern changes to troughiness for the heart of the season allowing for storms to recurve off the EC. But it does appear that a pretty solid H5 ridge is in the process of setting up off the EC which would block a recurve.

Not only that but here in South Florida I don't recall since I have lived here seeing persistent West to WSW winds for several weeks in a row (sometimes blowing in the 10-15mph range). We are not even getting East coast seabreezes to develop because of the strong troughiness. But I had a feeling this pattern had to change and it is in the process of changing for the active part of the Cape Verde season.

[Aquawind]

12/1145 UTC 15.3N 51.1W T1.0/1.0 92L -- Atlantic Ocean

[Ed Mahmoud]

My untrained eyes see a broad, almost elliptical circulation.


I'd imagine, if they wanted to, with the improved performance of the J model Hercules, they could get a decent amount of time inside 92L, but I also don't see the harm of waiting til dark thirty tonight and just flying the second scheduled mission.