Tropical Storm Fay Model Runs

[Stratosphere747]

Model plots are already in the past as if there is any new forming center it's already past 51...

[SouthFloridawx]

Model plots are already in the past as if there is any new forming center it's already past 51...

AL, 92, 2008081200, , BEST, 0, 135N, 482W, 25, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 180, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
AL, 92, 2008081206, , BEST, 0, 142N, 489W, 25, 1008, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 180, 60, 0, 0, L

[Jam151]

All the other models are showing something of some sort. I dunno why the outlier GFS is being taken so verbatim.

[Stratosphere747]

Model plots are already in the past as if there is any new forming center it's already past 51...

AL, 92, 2008081200, , BEST, 0, 135N, 482W, 25, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 180, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
AL, 92, 2008081206, , BEST, 0, 142N, 489W, 25, 1008, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 180, 60, 0, 0, L

Estimates only though there's nothing really anywhere near the above plots.

12/0545 UTC 13.5N 51.1W TOO WEAK 92L

[ronjon]

Boy, I sure don't like the 00z ECMWF run. Brings a tropical cyclone through the FL straits and then northward up through the eastern GOM for landfall near Big Bend region as a major hurricane. Yikes!

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Wind%20850%20and%20mslp!216!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2008081200!!/

[Meso]

meh, dunno about major hurricane... Those winds are pretty much on par with what we see here during cold fronts with that ECMWF run..30ms = 180 meters a min*60 = 10800 meters an hour/1000 = 108km/h = 72/mph ... Just under hurricane strength... Though I don't trust the ECMWF when it comes to wind speed like that

[deltadog03]

00Z Euro brings this into the gulf, strengthens it and moves it into Florida.

Loop:

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/animate/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Wind%20850%20and%20mslp!216!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2008081200!!!step/

Thanks for posting that....That is the fear/concern that I have as well. This will be...IF it develops..one of those late bloomers ( and we know what they can do)

[HURAKAN]

150
WHXX04 KWBC 121130
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 92L

INITIAL TIME 6Z AUG 12

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 13.8 49.0 325./ 8.9
6 15.2 51.7 298./30.0
12 15.9 52.4 312./ 9.1
18 16.5 53.9 291./15.9
24 17.5 55.1 312./15.9
30 17.7 56.4 277./12.6
36 18.6 57.9 303./17.0
42 19.0 58.9 291./10.2
48 19.6 60.0 299./12.2
54 19.8 61.4 276./13.1
60 20.1 62.8 281./13.3
66 20.3 63.7 282./ 8.9
72 20.4 64.8 277./10.0
78 20.6 66.1 281./12.2
84 20.9 67.5 282./13.5
90 21.0 68.7 271./10.8
96 20.9 69.4 267./ 6.7
102 21.2 70.2 289./ 8.4
108 21.4 71.4 278./11.3
114 21.6 71.8 299./ 4.3
120 21.8 72.4 292./ 6.4
126 22.3 73.1 307./ 7.3

[cycloneye]

Holy smokes,06z GFDL has a cat 2 in the Bahamas.



http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

[cycloneye]

06z HWRF has the same track as GFDL but is much more weaker.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

[HURAKAN]

And a high-end Cat. 2. GFDL woke up angry today!!! Very scary scenario and what it's more scary is the persistence.

[Meso]

What's the scariest part about the GFDL, is if it were to occur it would be going through RI... If you look at hour 120 and hour 126, that 6 hour difference the system intensifies 20kt, and since that's the end of the run who knows how high it would take it after that.Though as always you can't tell what will really happen.

[Recurve]

So those runs are 2 am EDT -- latest runs? As things start to look concerning for Florida, I'm going to need to keep track carefully of what models are showing.

Are next runs at 18z?

I'm noting that the model position in the Bahamas between 22-23 north and 73 west, is at T=126 in that run -- noon utc / 8 am EDT on Sunday, Aug. 17. That would mean an average speed from current position of about 10.5 knots on a great circle track is what I calculate.

[jlauderdal]

Holy smokes,06z GFDL has a cat 2 in the Bahamas.



http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

actually that run makes me feel safe considering there is no center at this time and its way out in time

[cycloneye]

Are next runs at 18z?

Next run is at 12z.

[Dean4Storms]

It is becoming apparent that the models are reaching a consensus that a TC of varying intensity will develop from 92L and will become a Bahamas, possible Florida threat and likely a GOM problem.

[ronjon]

It is becoming apparent that the models are reaching a consensus that a TC of varying intensity will develop from 92L and will become a Bahamas, possible Florida threat and likely a GOM problem.

Yes, I'm afraid so Dean. The 06Z GFS shows a building mid-level ridge at 150 hrs that expands westward from days 6-8. This ridge will prevent re-curvature up the east coast and send a likely tropical cyclone (92L) either west through the FL staits or W-NW across south or central FL. Also, the upper level environment over the Bahamas looks good for RI. At 200 mb, there is an upper level anticyclone forecast for the Bahamas. Later in the period, an ULL is forecast to develop over the central GOM in 7 days but it looks weaker on todays runs then yesterday. Not sure if this would ventilate the storm or cause shear. Once past the longitude of the FL peninsula, that midwest trough will cause a weakness in the central or eastern GOM - probably turning the storm north.



At 174 hrs - expanding ridge.

[Stormcenter]

Come on now we have no organized system yet some of you have this as a cat. 2 in the Bahamas then Florida and finally in the GOM because the one model says so.

[JPmia]

Holy smokes,06z GFDL has a cat 2 in the Bahamas.



http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

actually that run makes me feel safe considering there is no center at this time and its way out in time

I agree...I can't tell you how many times I've seent the models obliterate or show a major threat to Florida and then it either goes into the Gulf or up to the Caronlinas. We shall see I guess.

[Stormcenter]

It is becoming apparent that the models are reaching a consensus that a TC of varying intensity will develop from 92L and will become a Bahamas, possible Florida threat and likely a GOM problem.

Yes, I'm afraid so Dean. The 06Z GFS shows a building mid-level ridge at 150 hrs that expands westward from days 6-8. This ridge will prevent re-curvature up the east coast and send a likely tropical cyclone (92L) either west through the FL staits or W-NW across south or central FL. Also, the upper level environment over the Bahamas looks good for RI. At 200 mb, there is an upper level anticyclone forecast for the Bahamas. Later in the period, an ULL is forecast to develop over the central GOM in 7 days but it looks weaker on todays runs then yesterday. Not sure if this would ventilate the storm or cause shear. Once past the longitude of the FL peninsula, that midwest trough will cause a weakness in the central or eastern GOM - probably turning the storm north.



At 174 hrs - expanding ridge.

If it were only that easy to predict then we wouldn't need the NHC.
This won't even make it into the GOM in my opinion if it were to develop.