ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[jasons2k]

I'm watching this one closely, I think it will develop and has a good chance of impacting a lot of land areas.

[HURAKAN]

[Derek Ortt]

posted the below in the wrong thread

does not appear to be organizing any further this evening. The convection is racing ahead of the area of greatest vorticity

also, this may not be in recon range tomorrow. I do not foresee this reaching 55W by 18Z

[MiamiensisWx]

LLC is situated under the convection on the southeast side:

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tcdat/tc08/ATL/92L.INVEST/ssmi/composite/20080811.2059.f13.x.composite.92LINVEST.25kts-1008mb-122N-484W.39pc.jpg

Movement appears to be N of due W per satellite data.

[tolakram]

Convection appears to be on the wane again.



Where is the latest center estimate. I can't see anything in that mess.



Is that it around 50, 15?

[Vortex]

00Z NAM

Indicates a well developed storm at the end of the run with very favorable upper air support.


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_084l.gif

[Derek Ortt]

since there was the trough nearby, I am not sure that the normal DMAX/DMIN applies. The DMAX may have been this afternoon and we'll see another flareup tomorrow

still not that concerned about this

[HURAKAN]

[Blown Away]

Is the convection starting to build on more than on side of the circulation? Looks like it to me. The TAFB has 92L just N of PR in 72 hours and misses the NE Caribbean. It seems 92L has picked up a little speed and is moving more WNW again.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atl ... BW_sm3.gif

[ConvergenceZone]

I noticed that most of the METS on here seem bearish on ANY development at all of this...I'm just curious what the METS who put together the TWOs are seeing that our METS here aren't? or vice versa?.... The last TWO for example seems very bullish with this wave.....

[Blown Away]

92L is looking so good tonight compared to last night. Convection is starting to build around the circulation, if this continues and convection starts to build on the S side of the circulation we may have a TD in the morning, IMO. If the 92L becomes a TD in the morning the 5 day error cone will likely be very close to SFL. It's coming I can feel it!!

[Scorpion]

What a frustrating system to track. Seems to take 1 step forward 1 step back.

[Extremeweatherguy]

What a frustrating system to track. Seems to take 1 step forward 1 step back.

Must be trying to copy its older sister Dolly (a.k.a. 94L).

[Blown Away]

Looking at the WV loop I think we will see more of a WNW track before to long.

[SouthFLTropics]

Seems like they have all been like this so far...These invests can be frustrating...it's like a rollercoaster ride! One minute its building convection and then the next it

[Derek Ortt]

I noticed that most of the METS on here seem bearish on ANY development at all of this...I'm just curious what the METS who put together the TWOs are seeing that our METS here aren't? or vice versa?.... The last TWO for example seems very bullish with this wave.....

I'm not too sure why there is the descrepency.

Maybe watch it in the Bahamas, but I dont see anything before then

[hurricanetrack]

We are perhaps just a little shy of the time when such systems truly blossom. Even a few days short of the traditional ramp up to where climatology would strongly suggest development is enough to retard it this far east for now. Bertha and that TD for 6 hours between Dakar and the Cape Verde Islands had excellent conditions. It's all coming together. Remember, we can watch these darn things till the cows come home now- literally. Like waiting for water to boil. Almost literally. Hang in there people, for those who truly like to track the big hurricanes, I feel your time is coming. So do a few other people who hold degrees in meteorology and other related fields- some even have a PhD before their names. We are still in early August...time will change things. Just my thoughts as I look at everything tonight.

[Scorpion]

True, its only August 12. Things really usually pick up late in the month.

[Stormcenter]

True, its only August 12. Things really usually pick up late in the month.

The meat and potatoes (the really big ones) of the season is between August 15th through September 15th.
I personally will be glad when we are in late October and hopefully nothing of any significance has developed.

[tolakram]

Good loop where you can see the mainly west motion and convection following the center.

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... at1_0.html