ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[Extremeweatherguy]

8pm NHC TWO comes out soon. It will be interesting to see what their take is.

[Stratosphere747]

Color code back to red and a definite notion about the convection increasing.

[jaxfladude]

8pm NHC TWO comes out soon. It will be interesting to see what their take is.

N*O*T T*H*E R*E*A*L T*W*O!!!!!
SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS AS IT MOVES (insert direction here)

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

995
ABNT20 KNHC 112342
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT MON AUG 11 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS
LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN ABOUT 825 MILES EAST OF
THE LESSER ANTILLES. THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS GRADUALLY
BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
ABOUT 15 MPH. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM ON TUESDAY...IF NECESSARY.

A LARGE AND COMPLEX AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER EXTENDS FROM NEAR THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD FOR SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES.
THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...AND A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT
MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH.

AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL
WAVE...HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THERE
ARE NO SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION AND ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ELSEWHERE.. TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[SouthFLTropics]

I think the NHC will be conservative with the TWO...They will leave it at Code Orange with the statement that gradual development is possible over the next day or two as the system moves off to the WNW or NW...

We shall see soon...

SouthFLTropics

[Dean4Storms]

I see an elongated oriented LLC from SW to NE with 92L and with this set up it will be a slow developer as these elongated Lows take time and persistent convection to organize especially moving westward at 15-20 mph.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Yeah, it looks like they did up the wording a bit. They also now mention possible RECON for tomorrow.

[AJC3]

Late afternoon WINDSAT scatterometer pass...

[Ivanhater]

Continues to improve..

[KWT]

Very interesting Qscat pass, shows it exactly where I though it would be close to 15N, also shows it open on the southern side....though with lots of convection that may be closed by the time recon gets there...

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON AUG 11 2008

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS ALONG 49W
MOVING W AT 15 KT. A 1008 MB LOW IS EMBEDDED ON THE WAVE AXIS
NEAR 12N49W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS N OF THE
LOW CENTER FROM 13N-17N BETWEEN 47W-51W. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS
SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

[jaxfladude]

995
ABNT20 KNHC 112342
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT MON AUG 11 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS
LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN ABOUT 825 MILES EAST OF
THE LESSER ANTILLES. THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS GRADUALLY
BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
ABOUT 15 MPH. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM ON TUESDAY...IF NECESSARY.

A LARGE AND COMPLEX AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER EXTENDS FROM NEAR THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD FOR SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES.
THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...AND A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT
MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH.

AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL
WAVE...HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THERE
ARE NO SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION AND ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ELSEWHERE.. TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

More Bullish of a TWO than I expected.....then again this Invest is closer to Islands
than others....

[SouthFLTropics]

I think the NHC will be conservative with the TWO...They will leave it at Code Orange with the statement that gradual development is possible over the next day or two as the system moves off to the WNW or NW...

We shall see soon...

SouthFLTropics

I guess I was a bit late...Duh

[MiamiensisWx]

CODE RED (>50 PERCENT PROBABILITIES)

[Recurve]

This is what I mean by convection blooming and seeming to move north.

Almost no convection north of 15N:




And later:




Not saying the circulation's heading north, but that convection was.

[AJC3]

Very interesting Qscat pass, shows it exactly where I though it would be close to 15N, also shows it open on the southern side....though with lots of convection that may be closed by the time recon gets there...

Keep in mind that's a pass from the WINDSAT bird, not the QS. Fortunate that it hit the center given it's coverage swath is not as wide as QS.

[JonathanBelles]

Im gonna put the final touches on my hurricane preparedness kit this week just in case.

[Sanibel]

I should have stuck with my "it's just changing gears" observation last night.

How this NW jump will play out we'll see.

[jaxfladude]

CODE RED

The Red Alert for Development graphic needed!!!

Well it is the core of the season though...

Im gonna put the final touches on my hurricane preparedness kit this week just in case.

Prayers for anyone in possible harm''s way....now and for the rest of the season and all seasons in the future...