ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[Honeyko]

It was this >< close to being snuffed last evening, but the subsidence relaxed just enough to enable 92 to keep sputtering through the overnight and morning. As the SE trough (and ULL and sw-shear) slacken, 92 should go ahead and develop.

In fact, judging from near-sunset visibles, I'll go out on a limb and say 92 will develop quickly now. It has a really good look to it: Blob with a big rat-tail.

In a subsiding environment, a storm either dies, or it intensifies quickly (after establishing a stronger anticyclone aloft) due to a more favorable pressure gradient than normal. With 92L, we get to watch both.

[boca]

I smell a recurve with 92L, I'm not convinced it will even affect the NE Leeward Islands. Its already moving NW and unless the bermuda high builds in it won't turn back west.

[HURAKAN]

I smell a recurve with 92L, I'm not convinced it will even affect the NE Leeward Islands. Its already moving NW and unless the bermuda high builds in it won't turn back west.

That's what the computer models are thinking.

[deltadog03]

Boca, it is suppose to build back..That forecasted from all the models anyway.

[Weatherboy1]

looks to me this thing is trying to get its act together with a center possibly consolidating in the 14N 48W area. Now that the possible center appears to be pulling together under or near the main area of convection, I wouldn't be surprised to see this thing start to pop.

[gatorcane]

I think he meant 93L

[deltadog03]

He might have though of 93l..... maybe a mistake..

[KWT]

Yeah as everyone else is saying models show the Bermuda high really building back again and shunting the system westward again.

Track may be similar to Frances...strength-wise though clearly not, at least in the early part of the track anyway

[Honeyko]

:uarrow: Boca, it is suppose to build back..That forecasted from all the models anyway.

She me a rat-tail, and I'll show you westbound. Once a new LLC is established, expect forward speed to pick up.

92K may have already moved about as far right as it's going to.

[x-y-no]

I smell a recurve with 92L, I'm not convinced it will even affect the NE Leeward Islands. Its already moving NW and unless the bermuda high builds in it won't turn back west.

Well, yeah, but that's the issue. The high will build in again. Only question is timing relative to the movement of the storm. I think the Leeward Islands may well avoid this, but there should be a bend back westward.

[boca]

I smell a recurve with 92L, I'm not convinced it will even affect the NE Leeward Islands. Its already moving NW and unless the bermuda high builds in it won't turn back west.

wow that borders on dumbest post of the day IMO... sorry but this one won't recurve. take a look at steering currents for a minute won't ya...

Sorry haven't seen the models or been on the computer so scratch that last post.

[gatorcane]

I smell a recurve with 92L, I'm not convinced it will even affect the NE Leeward Islands. Its already moving NW and unless the bermuda high builds in it won't turn back west.

Well, yeah, but that's the issue. The high will build in again. Only question is timing relative to the movement of the storm. I think the Leeward Islands may well avoid this, but there should be a bend back westward.

Yeah but at what lattitude do you think it will bend back W??? That is the key question I guess.

[xironman]

There is convergence back in the general area http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8conv.html, no more Dolly pains for this one.

[jhamps10]

I smell a recurve with 92L, I'm not convinced it will even affect the NE Leeward Islands. Its already moving NW and unless the bermuda high builds in it won't turn back west.

Well, yeah, but that's the issue. The high will build in again. Only question is timing relative to the movement of the storm. I think the Leeward Islands may well avoid this, but there should be a bend back westward.

Yeah but at what lattitude do you think it will bend back W??? That is the key question I guess.

yes that is the million dollar question. or I guess in the case of damage estimates, possible billion dollar question and that could make a big difference for places like Miami or the space coast.

[x-y-no]

Yeah but at what lattitude do you think it will bend back W??? That is the key question I guess.

That's the question, and unfortunately not one that has a solid answer at this point. Also unanswerable is how much of a storm we have when it happens.

[HURAKAN]

I still have Fay in this system.

[Honeyko]

Grab 'em while the sun is still up:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-vis.html
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-vis.html

The shifting/redeveloping LLC is under the SE convection. Note, from the floater, the increasingly healthy state of outflow aloft. From second loop, observe an easterly SAL surge beginning and the rapid development of a rat-tail on 92L.

-- These are classic signs, in my experience, of a storm about to turn left, pick up speed, and intensify rapidly.

Even odds this doesn't miss Puerto Rico.

[KWT]

Yep convergence has come back and thats not surprising given the convective flare up we've seen recently.

I want to see this last at least another 12-24hrs but if it does it should be well on its way by that time, I reckon recon may find a low level circulation but not tight enough for an upgrade...that would be my punt.

Any circulation is probably north of 14N, still moving WNW even without that jog to the east.

[Weatherboy1]

HPC maps for day 3-7 available below track 92 over PR and then skirting both the DR and Cuba before ending up somewhere near the FL straits, just FYI ...

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/medr.shtml

[HURAKAN]

HPC maps for day 3-7 available below track 92 over PR and then skirting both the DR and Cuba before ending up somewhere near the FL straits, just FYI ...

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/medr.shtml

What a week ahead if that's true.