Tropical Storm Fay Model Runs

[pup55]

The grateful citizens of upstate South Carolina and adjacent areas of NC will gladly take up a collection and donate it to the CMC if it helps in getting that scenario to happen.

http://www.drought.unl.edu/dm/monitor.html

[msbee]

It seems all of us from Guadeloupe North need to closely monitor this system

[boca]

I honestly think 92L will not develop so I would watch but not go crazy over this it looks ragged.

[storms in NC]

The grateful citizens of upstate South Carolina and adjacent areas of NC will gladly take up a collection and donate it to the CMC if it helps in getting that scenario to happen.

http://www.drought.unl.edu/dm/monitor.html

Some of fl people have posted that they are in a drought. Don't see it on that map. I knew we are and we are on that map. Farmers have cut their corn down cause it didn't make, dry weather. Even to the trees are turning cause of no rain. We need a slow moving TS or TS to help what the farmers have left. But cause we need it we will not get any thing our way.We are in our 2 year of the drought. Not good.

[Gustywind]

All the runs and most of the models have indicated an awfull direct impact on GUADELOUPE, it's a joke not so pleasant hope that this is pure phantom . Whereas seems that the latest runs show a more northwestward path (should it verfies too) but the Leewards or Northern Leewards islands PR , can eventually be concerned by this feature during the next couple of days if if this the organization trend and the track would persist.

SHIPs has it as a Cat 1 near your island, but starts it as a 25 knot tropical depression, and while I thought it had a closed circulation yesterday, it doesn't today, so, with any luck, even if it takes a more Southern path, it will be only a strong tropical storm, or a minimal hurricane. Not good, but not as bad as it could be.


Just my opinion, and I would pay close attention to your island weather service (MeteoFrance?) and the WMO RSMC, the US National Hurricane Center. They are the professionals.

Tkanks my friend glad to see all your good advices. Here they're talking about a deterioration of the weather with more rains increasing winds wednesday night in Guadeloupe in the latest weather forecast while Martinica is anticipated for a well formed wave crossing their area! . Anyway , something to wacth. To sump let's stay on our guard, hope nothing more than a possible modest or strong TropicalStorm or less... will be good news for us in the Leewards, but at any time this could be suspicious, so it could a threat if we don't monitor carefully this one. Whereas, we have not to worry too much our pro mets are tracking this probable, future TD ( if this happens, should it verifies first!!!).

[Gustywind]

It seems all of us from Guadeloupe North need to closely monitor this system

Absolutely my friend Msbee let's hope that nothing will happen but time will tell as we're definitely entering the peak of the season remembering a" famous "Dean approximately at the same period one year ago.... . Watch it carefully and seems that there's buisness down the road with 93L getting act further east....

[Extremeweatherguy]

12z GFS..

Day 5 - 92L approaching the bahamas
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... v_120l.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_120l.gif

[greels]

I may be a bit premature in asking this question, but do you forsee this weather system to be a possible threat to us here in the Turks & Caicos Islands?

[Ed Mahmoud]

I may be a bit premature in asking this question, but do you forsee this weather system to be a possible threat to us here in the Turks & Caicos Islands?

Maybe. Keep reading here, follow local media, the local government weather service and the US National Hurricane Center.

Canadian Global slides a depression or weak storm between the Greater Antilles and the Southern Bahamas, with a landfall near Guantanamo, so, don't panic, but stay tuned.

[Ed Mahmoud]

BTW, and, since Canadian tends to over-develop storms, its depiction of 92L as a weak TS or TD may just really imply an open wave, may be a worry about nothing, but Canadian seems to have just enough ridging to steer 92L towards the Gulf, (where it might wind up, a mystery). Looks like just enough weakness, for 93L to try to recurve, but if it doesn't complete the recurve before the trough moves out, may head back West at a latitude that threatens Florida to Carolinas.

Things are murky, and the only thing to do is stay tuned.

[greels]

Thank you, I will follow this forum.

There is not a local media nor local weather service here in the T&C.....we get all our "weather information" from Nassau, Bahamas, if that makes any sense at all.......

[Ed Mahmoud]

I don't see a 92L GFDL run either track at Ohio State or on Penn State tropical page.


Soon to be dropped?



93L's GFDL run's coarser outer-grid likes 92L

[cycloneye]

Moving WNW at 10kts.BAMM has it crossing Puerto Rico from East to west.


ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL922008) 20080811 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080811 1800 080812 0600 080812 1800 080813 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 12.2N 48.4W 13.1N 50.2W 14.3N 52.2W 15.4N 54.3W
BAMD 12.2N 48.4W 13.3N 50.3W 14.7N 52.3W 16.1N 54.3W
BAMM 12.2N 48.4W 13.0N 50.2W 14.0N 52.2W 15.0N 54.2W
LBAR 12.2N 48.4W 13.1N 50.4W 14.4N 52.6W 15.8N 54.9W
SHIP 25KTS 29KTS 35KTS 43KTS
DSHP 25KTS 29KTS 35KTS 43KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080813 1800 080814 1800 080815 1800 080816 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 16.7N 56.5W 18.8N 61.1W 20.7N 66.1W 22.1N 69.9W
BAMD 17.3N 56.2W 18.6N 60.5W 19.0N 65.0W 18.6N 69.1W
BAMM 16.0N 56.1W 17.2N 60.1W 18.2N 64.4W 18.7N 68.4W
LBAR 17.0N 57.5W 18.4N 62.6W 19.0N 67.9W 19.7N 71.4W
SHIP 50KTS 64KTS 69KTS 70KTS
DSHP 50KTS 64KTS 69KTS 67KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 12.2N LONCUR = 48.4W DIRCUR = 295DEG SPDCUR = 10KT
LATM12 = 11.4N LONM12 = 46.7W DIRM12 = 293DEG SPDM12 = 10KT
LATM24 = 10.7N LONM24 = 44.5W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 180NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[gatorcane]

Euro tracks it just north of Hispaniola moving WNW into the SE Bahamas:

[Ed Mahmoud]

Euro tracks it just north of Hispaniola moving WNW into the SE Bahamas:

Euro goes practically Canadian by 10 days, with system approaching SW Louisiana (92L, maybe, hard to tell), one off Sooutheast US, and another in the Atlantic.

[KWT]

Euro pretty much takes it on the track of death over several of the major chain islands of the Caribbean.

[gatorcane]

Euro pretty much takes it on the track of death over several of the major chain islands of the Caribbean.

actually the Euro tracks it just north of the Greater Antilles in the general direction of the Bahamas.

[KWT]

The center tracks right through Hispaniola if you look at the L between 120-144hrs:

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... !chart.gif

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... !chart.gif

The resolution is course so it may end up still staying just offshore but either way it'd take a major hit, then cuts through Cuba emerging back into the Caribbean at 168hrs.

[gatorcane]

The center tracks right through Hispaniola if you look at the L between 120-144hrs:

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... !chart.gif

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... !chart.gif

The resolution is course so it may end up still staying just offshore but either way it'd take a major hit, then cuts through Cuba emerging back into the Caribbean at 168hrs.

problem is that the Euro is not showing the WNW to NW movement happening right now --- which could have huge ramifications on where 92L goes ultimately (if it develops).

The more lattitude it gains right now, the less likely 92L would be a Caribbean runner and a higher chance of impacts to the EC instead although the long-range is still unclear at this point.

[Extremeweatherguy]

It looks like most of the reliable modeling takes this this system toward the southern Bahamas by Saturday morning. From there things could definitely get interesting.