ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[Gustywind]

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
11/0545 UTC 10.9N 46.6W T1.0/1.5 92L
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/positions.html

[Gustywind]

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8sht.html
Shear is increasing a little bit further west of 92L with my untrained eyes.....

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

[Stratosphere747]

The estimates have actually been fairly accurate with this system. Overall it's not that healthy right now.

11/1145 UTC 11.4N 47.5W TOO WEAK 92L
11/0545 UTC 10.9N 46.6W T1.0/1.5 92L
10/2345 UTC 11.1N 46.2W T1.0/1.5 92L
10/1745 UTC 11.4N 43.6W T1.5/1.5 92L

[HURAKAN]

[Derek Ortt]

may be time to start looking elsewhere... and even the system to the east is losing model support

[Ed Mahmoud]

I don't think the area of maximum turning in the lower clouds qualifies as a 'center' anymore, but storms seem displaced to the West, as if it were under Easterly shear. But that is not what the CIMMS shear map seems to suggest- fairly favorable shear, from the West...

[Ed Mahmoud]

There might be something mid-level forming on the Southeaster side of the thicker cloud cover, and the low clouds East of there, which was an LLC at one time, may be spinning down.


Just my opinion.

[Blown Away]

Jeff Master's still thinks 92L will develop slowly.
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMa ... amp=200808

[Extremeweatherguy]

I really hope that this is not going to be another 94L roller coaster ride.

[tolakram]

I too am of the opinion that the LLC is either dissipated(ing) or relocated.

[Blown Away]

Doesn't look like there is much of a LLC, unless it has tucked itself near the convection ball. No convection at all on S and SW side, just clear skies.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

[HURAKAN]

[Blown Away]

If there is a LLC, it must be near 12N/49W, if not there is no LLC anymore, IMO.

[Sanibel]

That explains the stationary LLC yesterday. It was hitting a steering border and jumping up NW. Looks to be a weak system being synoptically crushed and dried up by unfavorable weak conditions. I think the LLC might be quiting or extremely relocating. Most likely quiting. It may be still too early by a week or two.

In this kind of situation the trailing system usually takes the energy.

[wxman57]

may be time to start looking elsewhere... and even the system to the east is losing model support

That's what I'm thinking, Derek. Looks pretty disorganized now. Shear appears to be impacting it. Not nearly as well organized as it was yesterday. May well weaken back to a wave soon.

[HURAKAN]

Code: Select all

                    *   ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST       *
                    *        GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED            *
                    *      INVEST  AL922008  08/11/08  12 UTC   *

SHEAR (KTS)        6     6     4     5     8     8     4     4     5     3    12     2    11             

Apparently ships is not seeing almost any shear.

[Sanibel]

You can see a flat edge to the west side which is probably the Atlantic tropical airmass border with the Caribbean airmass. 92L is jacking up NW along the periphery. Moot point since 92 is so weak anyway.

[Steve]

>>may be time to start looking elsewhere... and even the system to the east is losing model support

Looking elsewhere for what? Whoever said it was going to form at or before 50W or so would have been wrong. Anyone who has ever looked at a Central Atlantic satellite in hurricane season can see the potential in both of the invests. They aren't going to fire today or tomorrow, but the energy is there. And that's where you start looking IMHO. Watch the evolution and if by Friday the first threat isn't clearly on the horizon, talking 92L, I'll take a week off of posting in favor of reading more and talking less.

Steve