Tropical Storm Fay Model Runs

[jhamps10]

do we have anything from EURO yet?

[Jam151]

do we have anything from EURO yet?

It's very similar to the GFS. Takes it into the central Gulf by day 10...somewhat weak.

[Meso]

[americanrebel]

I meant to say for the past 2 years. The most conUS land falls have been around that area. Ernesto, Humberto, Eduoard. Most of the other landfalling systems have been to the Mexico area. I know Dolly hit South Texas and Cristobal formed off the Carolina coast, but did not make landfall.

Sorry if I did not mean to say this season, I meant to say for the average conUS landfalls.

[southerngale]

I meant to say for the past 2 years. The most conUS land falls have been around that area. Ernesto, Humberto, Eduoard. Most of the other landfalling systems have been to the Mexico area. I know Dolly hit South Texas and Cristobal formed off the Carolina coast, but did not make landfall.

Sorry if I did not mean to say this season, I meant to say for the average conUS landfalls.

Ernesto didn't hit anywhere near here. You're right about Humberto, but you forgot the most devastating one of all... Rita!!

Edouard wasn't nearly as bad as Humberto last year. And neither one come anywhere remotely close to the devastation that Rita caused here.

2 hurricanes and 1 tropical storm in less than 3 years (and pretty scarce before that)... we should be done for quite a long time. Make sure you tell Mother Nature that, though.

[storms in NC]

Long Range CMC @ 216 hours



Long Range CMC @ 240 hours

Most likely going to be a coast huger IMO Floyd did the same thing. showed Fl as a hit be just hugged the coast. Christabel did the same this year

[Ed Mahmoud]

GFS has it making landfall in the hot bed of landfalls this year, the Texas/Louisiana border, what a surprise. Lets hope it is wrong and it just goes due West and doesn't strengthen too much.

Hot bed? They had one tropical storm.

My lawn was most grateful for that.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Florida is the hot bed. By far. How many hurricanes in 2004? Before Katrina hit Mississippi and extreme SE Louisiana, it hit Florida. Wilma.


It is a Top 10 list that Texas doesn't mind not topping.

[HURAKAN]

025
WHXX04 KWBC 111128
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 92L

INITIAL TIME 6Z AUG 11

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 11.2 46.9 280./14.0
6 11.6 47.1 339./ 3.8
12 12.3 47.6 325./ 8.8
18 13.1 48.2 322./ 9.8
24 13.7 49.0 307./ 9.4
30 14.4 50.1 303./13.6
36 15.1 51.0 311./10.6
42 15.9 52.3 298./15.3
48 16.4 53.2 302./10.4
54 17.4 54.4 309./14.7
60 18.2 55.5 308./13.0
66 18.8 56.9 294./14.3
72 19.3 58.5 286./16.4
78 19.5 60.3 278./17.0
84 20.1 62.0 288./17.3
90 20.2 63.8 276./16.6
96 20.6 65.9 280./20.1
102 20.8 67.8 275./17.8
108 20.9 69.4 274./15.1
114 20.8 71.1 266./15.5
120 20.9 72.4 275./12.3
126 21.2 73.9 283./14.1

[storms in NC]

025
WHXX04 KWBC 111128
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 92L

INITIAL TIME 6Z AUG 11

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 11.2 46.9 280./14.0
6 11.6 47.1 339./ 3.8
12 12.3 47.6 325./ 8.8
18 13.1 48.2 322./ 9.8
24 13.7 49.0 307./ 9.4
30 14.4 50.1 303./13.6
36 15.1 51.0 311./10.6
42 15.9 52.3 298./15.3
48 16.4 53.2 302./10.4
54 17.4 54.4 309./14.7
60 18.2 55.5 308./13.0
66 18.8 56.9 294./14.3
72 19.3 58.5 286./16.4
78 19.5 60.3 278./17.0
84 20.1 62.0 288./17.3
90 20.2 63.8 276./16.6
96 20.6 65.9 280./20.1
102 20.8 67.8 275./17.8
108 20.9 69.4 274./15.1
114 20.8 71.1 266./15.5
120 20.9 72.4 275./12.3
126 21.2 73.9 283./14.1

Even this shows a West NW movement

[jlauderdal]

025
WHXX04 KWBC 111128
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 92L

INITIAL TIME 6Z AUG 11

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 11.2 46.9 280./14.0
6 11.6 47.1 339./ 3.8
12 12.3 47.6 325./ 8.8
18 13.1 48.2 322./ 9.8
24 13.7 49.0 307./ 9.4
30 14.4 50.1 303./13.6
36 15.1 51.0 311./10.6
42 15.9 52.3 298./15.3
48 16.4 53.2 302./10.4
54 17.4 54.4 309./14.7
60 18.2 55.5 308./13.0
66 18.8 56.9 294./14.3
72 19.3 58.5 286./16.4
78 19.5 60.3 278./17.0
84 20.1 62.0 288./17.3
90 20.2 63.8 276./16.6
96 20.6 65.9 280./20.1
102 20.8 67.8 275./17.8
108 20.9 69.4 274./15.1
114 20.8 71.1 266./15.5
120 20.9 72.4 275./12.3
126 21.2 73.9 283./14.1

if that were to verify the keys and south florida might actually prepare at some point,

[HURAKAN]

[Gustywind]

All the runs and most of the models have indicated an awfull direct impact on GUADELOUPE, it's a joke not so pleasant hope that this is pure phantom . Whereas seems that the latest runs show a more northwestward path (should it verfies too) but the Leewards or Northern Leewards islands PR , can eventually be concerned by this feature during the next couple of days if if this the organization trend and the track would persist.

[storms in NC]

025
WHXX04 KWBC 111128
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 92L

INITIAL TIME 6Z AUG 11

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 11.2 46.9 280./14.0
6 11.6 47.1 339./ 3.8
12 12.3 47.6 325./ 8.8
18 13.1 48.2 322./ 9.8
24 13.7 49.0 307./ 9.4
30 14.4 50.1 303./13.6
36 15.1 51.0 311./10.6
42 15.9 52.3 298./15.3
48 16.4 53.2 302./10.4
54 17.4 54.4 309./14.7
60 18.2 55.5 308./13.0
66 18.8 56.9 294./14.3
72 19.3 58.5 286./16.4
78 19.5 60.3 278./17.0
84 20.1 62.0 288./17.3
90 20.2 63.8 276./16.6
96 20.6 65.9 280./20.1
102 20.8 67.8 275./17.8
108 20.9 69.4 274./15.1
114 20.8 71.1 266./15.5
120 20.9 72.4 275./12.3
126 21.2 73.9 283./14.1

if that were to verify the keys and south florida might actually prepare at some point,

Maybe not With the front to the north should push out on thursday or friday and the 92L should be close for it to be picked up and make a turn on out to sea.JMO

000
FXUS62 KILM 111120
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
720 AM EDT MON AUG 11 2008

..LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...MAIN SHORTWAVE ENERGY HAS PUSHED A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THROUGH THE CAROLINAS BY THURS MORNING LEAVING THE AREA
WITH A DRIER AIR MASS THROUGH THURS. PCP WATER DOWN TO AROUND 1.3
INCHES WITH A TEMPORARY SHIFT IN WINDS TO THE W-NW. THEREFORE NOT
EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF PCP FOR THURS INTO EARLY FRI. OVERALL
HEIGHTS WILL START BUILDING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED
WITH A MORE PRONOUNCED TROUGH SETTING UP OVER THE CENTRAL STATES.
THIS WILL HELP TO PUMP SOME MOISTURE UP FROM THE SOUTH IN A DEEPER
SW FLOW BY FRI AFTN AND THEREFORE EXPECTING MORE IN THE WAY OF
TYPICAL DIURNAL SUMMER TIME CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SEA BREEZE AND PIEDMONT TROUGH IN THE AFTN INTO EARLY EVENING AS WE
HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND. DRIEST DAY SHOULD BE THURS AND KEPT WITH
SLIGHT CHC ON FRI AND THEN INCREASED INTO CHC CATEGORY FOR AFTN
CONVECTION OVER THE WEEKEND.

TEMPS REMAIN START TRENDING ABOVE CLIMO TOWARD THE LATTER PART OF
THE EXTENDED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HEIGHTS RISE IN MID LEVELS

[gatorcane]

Something must have happened to gatorcane. He is usually ALL OVER stuff like this.

Hey, funny. I just completed a 1 week move where I had minimial internet activity. I now reside near the West Palm Beach area. Things are indeed picking up....I'm trying to catch up at this point

[Ed Mahmoud]

All the runs and most of the models have indicated an awfull direct impact on GUADELOUPE, it's a joke not so pleasant hope that this is pure phantom . Whereas seems that the latest runs show a more northwestward path (should it verfies too) but the Leewards or Northern Leewards islands PR , can eventually be concerned by this feature during the next couple of days if if this the organization trend and the track would persist.

SHIPs has it as a Cat 1 near your island, but starts it as a 25 knot tropical depression, and while I thought it had a closed circulation yesterday, it doesn't today, so, with any luck, even if it takes a more Southern path, it will be only a strong tropical storm, or a minimal hurricane. Not good, but not as bad as it could be.


Just my opinion, and I would pay close attention to your island weather service (MeteoFrance?) and the WMO RSMC, the US National Hurricane Center. They are the professionals.

[HURAKAN]

Code: Select all

412
WHXX01 KWBC 111259
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1259 UTC MON AUG 11 2008
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL922008) 20080811 1200 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        080811  1200   080812  0000   080812  1200   080813  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    11.6N  48.1W   12.5N  49.7W   13.4N  51.5W   14.4N  53.3W
BAMD    11.6N  48.1W   12.5N  49.9W   13.5N  51.7W   14.8N  53.6W
BAMM    11.6N  48.1W   12.5N  49.7W   13.4N  51.3W   14.5N  53.1W
LBAR    11.6N  48.1W   12.4N  50.3W   13.5N  52.8W   14.6N  55.1W
SHIP        20KTS          22KTS          28KTS          35KTS
DSHP        20KTS          22KTS          28KTS          35KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        080813  1200   080814  1200   080815  1200   080816  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    15.6N  55.3W   17.8N  60.2W   20.0N  65.7W   21.7N  70.9W
BAMD    16.0N  55.5W   17.6N  59.7W   18.5N  64.9W   19.0N  70.0W
BAMM    15.7N  55.0W   17.4N  59.2W   18.8N  64.5W   19.7N  69.4W
LBAR    15.8N  57.6W   17.4N  62.8W   18.4N  68.4W   19.9N  72.4W
SHIP        46KTS          63KTS          73KTS          78KTS
DSHP        46KTS          63KTS          73KTS          78KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  11.6N LONCUR =  48.1W DIRCUR = 285DEG SPDCUR =  12KT
LATM12 =  11.0N LONM12 =  45.9W DIRM12 = 282DEG SPDM12 =  13KT
LATM24 =  10.5N LONM24 =  42.9W
WNDCUR =   20KT RMAXWD =   40NM WNDM12 =   25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD =  150NM SDEPTH =   S
RD34NE =    0NM RD34SE =    0NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW =   0NM
 
$$
NNNN


[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

Code: Select all

                    *   ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST       *
                    *        GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED            *
                    *      INVEST  AL922008  08/11/08  12 UTC   *

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
V (KT) NO LAND    20    21    22    24    28    35    46    55    63    68    73    77    78
V (KT) LAND       20    21    22    24    28    35    46    55    63    68    73    77    78
V (KT) LGE mod    20    19    19    19    20    23    27    31    38    45    54    62    69

SHEAR (KTS)        6     6     4     5     8     8     4     4     5     3    12     2    11
SHEAR DIR         72    68   131    81    74   130    22    99    28   358   345   299   323
SST (C)         28.4  28.3  28.3  28.3  28.3  28.2  28.3  28.4  28.4  28.4  28.6  28.8  28.8
POT. INT. (KT)   142   141   141   141   141   140   141   143   143   143   147   149   149
ADJ. POT. INT.   142   138   137   137   137   136   136   137   138   138   141   141   141
200 MB T (C)   -53.5 -53.3 -53.4 -53.6 -53.6 -53.3 -53.5 -53.1 -53.2 -53.1 -53.3 -53.2 -53.4
TH_E DEV (C)      11    11    11    10     9    10     9    10    10    11    10    11    11
700-500 MB RH     59    58    55    59    59    57    55    51    51    50    53    52    55
GFS VTEX (KT)     10    10     9     9    10     9    10     8     9     6     8     7     6
850 MB ENV VOR    78    57    43    35    35    26    24    10    19    -5     1    -5    -1
200 MB DIV        10    12    32    46    37    59    20     0    -6   -11   -26   -14     7
LAND (KM)        881   877   884   892   905   950   847   790   694   422   138   100    44
LAT (DEG N)     11.6  12.1  12.5  13.0  13.4  14.5  15.7  16.7  17.4  18.2  18.8  19.4  19.7
LONG(DEG W)     48.1  48.9  49.7  50.5  51.3  53.1  55.0  56.9  59.2  61.7  64.5  67.0  69.4
STM SPEED (KT)    10     9     9     9    10    11    11    11    12    13    13    12    11
HEAT CONTENT      44    47    45    48    46    51    56    46    59    64    59    67    35

  FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM      INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 12      CX,CY: -11/  3
  T-12 MAX WIND:  25            PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB):  524  (MEAN=625)
  GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD:  26.4 (MEAN=20.0)
  % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C    50-200 KM RAD:  28.0 (MEAN=68.6)

                        INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
                         6   12   18   24   36   48   60   72   84   96  108  120
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE     1.   2.   3.   4.   6.   8.   9.  10.  11.  12.  12.  13.
  SST POTENTIAL          0.   0.   0.   1.   4.  11.  18.  23.  29.  33.  37.  40.
  VERTICAL SHEAR         1.   3.   4.   6.   8.  11.  12.  14.  15.  14.  14.  14.
  PERSISTENCE           -2.  -3.  -4.  -5.  -6.  -6.  -6.  -5.  -4.  -3.  -1.   0.
  200/250 MB TEMP.       0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.   0.   0.
  THETA_E EXCESS         0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -2.
  700-500 MB RH          0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.
  GFS VORTEX TENDENCY    0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -4.  -3.  -4.  -4.
  850 MB ENV VORTICITY   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   1.   0.   0.   0.  -1.
  200 MB DIVERGENCE      0.   0.   0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -2.
  ZONAL STORM MOTION     0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   2.   2.   2.   3.   3.   4.   4.
  STEERING LEVEL PRES    0.   0.   1.   1.   1.   2.   2.   2.   2.   2.   2.   2.
  DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  SUB-TOTAL CHANGE       0.   2.   4.   8.  15.  26.  35.  44.  49.  54.  58.  61.

  SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ----------------------------------------------------------
  MEAN ADJUSTMENT        0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.
  GOES IR STD DEV        1.   2.   2.   2.   2.   2.   1.   0.  -1.   0.   0.   0.
  GOES IR PIXEL COUNT   -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.  -2.  -1.  -1.   1.   2.   2.   2.   0.
  OCEAN HEAT CONTENT     0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -1.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  TOTAL ADJUSTMENT       0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.   0.  -1.  -1.  -1.  -2.
                        ----------------------------------------------------------
  TOTAL CHANGE (KT)      1.   2.   4.   8.  15.  26.  35.  43.  48.  53.  57.  58.

   ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922008     INVEST 08/11/08  12 UTC **
           ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
 
 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT):  -5.0 Range:-45.0 to  30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.5/  1.0
 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) :   5.7 Range: 35.1 to   3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.9/  1.5
 D200 (10**7s-1)       :  27.4 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.3/  0.4
 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT)   : 118.2 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.9/  1.0
 850-700 MB REL HUM (%):  70.4 Range: 56.0 to  88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.5/  0.2
 % area w/pixels <-30 C:  22.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.1/  0.0
 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP :  16.6 Range: 35.1 to   3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.6/  0.8
 Heat content (KJ/cm2) :  46.0 Range:  0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:  0.3/  0.0
 
 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold=    26% is   2.1 times the sample mean(12.3%)
 Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold=    16% is   2.0 times the sample mean( 7.8%)
 Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold=     1% is   0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%)

   ##         ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922008     INVEST 08/11/08  12 UTC         ##
   ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1                          ##
   ## AHI=  0   (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
   ##     ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY             

[gatorcane]

The long-wave pattern of an unusually strong East Coast trough appears to be changing in the long-term. Note the GFSX 500MB steering flow between now (Init) and 10 day. The 10 day shows a much less amplified trough along the EC of the CONUS.

Now (amplified EC trough):


10 day (more zonal pattern):