ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[KWT]

Yeah does feel a lot like Dolly, if its going to form hopefully it won't take quite so long as that did, mind you with this being possibly a greater threat for the Caribbean then Dolly I wouldn't mind if it stayed weak.

[HURAKAN]

At least some good news for the Lesser Antilles is that the system is having trouble organizing and rapid intensification is not a possibility at the moment.

[cycloneye]

And if it stays this way,beneficial rains would be welcomed for some of the islands as a drought has been around for some months now.

[alan1961]

I think your seeing why the gfs model keeps this like it does..''spluttering'' and eventually starts fizzleing it out thru and beyond the islands, admittedly the models do have there times when there off but IMO i think they are on the ball with 92L, the gfs as backed of a little also with the wave behind 92L, IMO i'm not expecting much from 92L and i think it will frustrate a lot of people in here who would love to track a decent system, you may have to look at the wave behind 92L unless the models have other ideas with that to, i know one thing for sure, these waves are going to have a hard time if they manage to get into the caribbean graveyard.

[Ed Mahmoud]

11ºN, 47ºW seems to be area of greatest spin, visible on rainbow infrared imagery because storms are displaced to the West. Almost as if shear from the East is the problem.

Sun has risen on 92L. Will have visible imagery soon.

[HURAKAN]

The floater is now centered on the area of convection.

[ronjon]

I hear a lot of pessimism on this board this morning about 92L. Looks like environmental conditions won't be ideal but the system has good model support (GFDL, HWRF, CMC, UKMET) for at least tropical storm intensity development. Odds are it'll still develop but will take a little longer - envionmental conditions get better further west and if it can avoid the islands of the greater antilles, it may still become a powerful storm. Steering is coming into better agreement this morning with a jog north of the LA and generally moving W or W-NW north of PR. Eventually this system will reach the GOM. Models are backing off now on the strength and eastward extent of the midwest trough in 7 days. This system may affect the NW or central Gulf down the road.

[carolina_73]

Nice blowup of convection. I wonder if the LLC is placed under that now???

[HURAKAN]

[xironman]

I wonder if the LLC is placed under that now

From the overnight shortwave and early visible the LLC is still a bit southeast of that now.

[Blown Away]

You guys are a tough crowd, there was very little deep convection last night and now this morning there is a nice ball of convection on the NW side. If 92L maintains this convection I push my TD status to 5pm. May not look great, but still better than last night, IMO.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-avn.html

[alan1961]

I hear a lot of pessimism on this board this morning about 92L. Looks like environmental conditions won't be ideal but the system has good model support (GFDL, HWRF, CMC, UKMET) for at least tropical storm intensity development. Odds are it'll still develop but will take a little longer - envionmental conditions get better further west and if it can avoid the islands of the greater antilles, it may still become a powerful storm. Steering is coming into better agreement this morning with a jog north of the LA and generally moving W or W-NW north of PR. Eventually this system will reach the GOM. Models are backing off now on the strength and eastward extent of the midwest trough in 7 days. This system may affect the NW or central Gulf down the road.

I suppose putting it another way ronjon is to say some people are not ''optimistic'' of 92L's future life, thats fair enough comment in my book.

[HURAKAN]

Loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/post-goes

Slowly but convection is increasing.

[Vortex]

First visible imagery suggest the loosely defined center to be just SE of the deeper convection but moving closer every hour. GFDL with its more NW movement in the short term appears to have a good handle..As the day progresses the circulation will tighten and tonight we may get the first period of deep convection over a well defined center.

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON AUG 11 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS
LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN ABOUT 850 MILES EAST OF
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. ALTHOUGH ASSOCIATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY LIMITED...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR
FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS LOCATED
OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15
MPH.

ELSEWHERE.. TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER RHOME

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 111053
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON AUG 11 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 47W OR
ABOUT 780 NM EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS IS SUPPORTING AN AREA
OF DISORGANIZED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 12N-16N
BETWEEN 42W-50W. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION NORTH OF A 1009 MB LOW EMBEDDED ON
THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 11N. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 TO 15 KT.
$$
HUFFMAN

[Gustywind]

000
AWCA82 TJSJ 110857
RWSVI

WEATHER SUMMARY FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
457 AM AST MON AUG 11 2008

FOR LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS
ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 48 WEST EARLY THIS
MORNING...WILL BRING A GENERAL INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY TO THE LOCAL AREA. THE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
TROPICAL WAVE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD
AT 15 TO 20 MPH. RESIDENTS AND VISITORS IN THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT
FEW DAYS.

[storms in NC]

From this it is not moving a true West more like West NW to me.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

[Recurve]

Some blob development now, while flattening on the west side is apparent. Main convection still seems west of the cyclonic center (low? mid?)

BTW, what is going on in the SW caribbean? some big convective complex there.

[storms in NC]

NHC has went down to med now with 92L and not high like it was earlier.