ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[Extremeweatherguy]

Ed,

What has JB mentioned in his blog? He have a gut to what it will become and where it will ultimately go?

He is on the road today. Hopefully we will hear more later tonight or tomorrow.

JB finally chimed in on 92L this evening. In an 11pm post, he said that he thinks this system will be the first of two systems to develop over the next seven days. According to him, 92L's threat will be centered toward Florida, with the subsequent system's threat centered further north and east.

[jaxfladude]

JB finally chimed in on 92L this evening. In an 11pm post, he said that he thinks this system will be the first of two systems to develop over the next seven days. According to him, 92L's threat will be centered toward Florida, with the subsequent system's threat centered further north and east.

If JB says that I feel very safe....and I live in NE Florida...

[Blown Away]

Ed,

What has JB mentioned in his blog? He have a gut to what it will become and where it will ultimately go?

He is on the road today. Hopefully we will hear more later tonight or tomorrow.

JB finally chimed in on 92L this evening. In an 11pm post, he said that he thinks this system will be the first of two systems to develop over the next seven days. According to him, 92L's threat will be centered toward Florida, with the subsequent system's threat centered further north and east.

It seems no matter what happens this system will be near or through SFL in one way or another. It seems alot of folks will be affected by this system.

[Jagno]

Looking at current models I have to ask, "Does anyone see anything coming down the pike that may weaken or prevent this large system from progressing on it's current path?" Give me some hope......... shear, unfavorable environment, dry air, or anything else that would keep 92L away.

[Blown Away]

Looking at current models I have to ask, "Does anyone see anything coming down the pike that may weaken or prevent this large system from progressing on it's current path?" Give me some hope......... shear, unfavorable environment, dry air, or anything else that would keep 92L away.

The GFS seems to keep 92L weak and fizzles it out and that is a pretty reliable model.

[Honeyko]

Past 10PM EST with no Great Red Spot yet....it's really struggling to exhale aloft. Killer cap.

There is no circulation with that system, which means that the convection will go poof soon. 92L has a circulation and it will refire soon.

Yeah, but why isn't it doing it now? It's father away from the diurnal minima than the Panama stuff, yet has nothing blowing the tropopause despite being in an extremely favorable environment otherwise:



I've seen this pattern before: 92L (the first system in a line after a SAL outbreak has modified) is being crushed under subsidence from the exhaust off a SE coastal trough's convection being funneled over it by a ULL to its north. It could have no shear and excellent surface circulation over warm water -- and still crap out.

If it doesn't pop a bright red round blob by the maxima, you can put a fork in it. It'll degenerate into an open wave, and you'll have to wait until the wave hits the WCAR for possible regen.

(It does have a chance, though -- the trough is weakening.)

==//==

The GFS seems to keep 92L weak and fizzles it out and that is a pretty reliable model.

It was on the money with 99L not developing while WNW-tracking.

[cheezyWXguy]

Past 10PM EST with no Great Red Spot yet....it's really struggling to exhale aloft. Killer cap.

There is no circulation with that system, which means that the convection will go poof soon. 92L has a circulation and it will refire soon.

Yeah, but why isn't it doing it now? It's father away from the diurnal minima than the Panama stuff, yet has nothing blowing the tropopause despite being in an extremely favorable environment otherwise:



I've seen this pattern before: 92L (the first system in a line after a SAL outbreak has modified) is being crushed under subsidence from the exhaust off a SE coastal trough's convection being funneled over it by a ULL to its north. It could have no shear and excellent surface circulation over warm water -- and still crap out.

If it doesn't pop a bright red round blob by the maxima, you can put a fork in it. It'll degenerate into an open wave, and you'll have to wait until the wave hits the WCAR for possible regen.

(It does have a chance, though -- the trough is weakening.)

==//==

The GFS seems to keep 92L weak and fizzles it out and that is a pretty reliable model.

It was on the money with 99L not developing while WNW-tracking.

Youre funny

[cycloneye]

[Aric Dunn]

[southerngale]

Still Red.

000
ABNT20 KNHC 110548
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT MON AUG 11 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS
LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN ABOUT 900 MILES EAST OF
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. ALTHOUGH ASSOCIATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY REMAINS DISORGANIZED...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR
FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS LOCATED
OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 15
MPH.

ELSEWHERE.. TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER RHOME

[Honeyko]

(Posted earlier this evening)

The tag-team killers:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-wv.html
http://www.nlmoc.navy.mil/cgi-bin/movie ... tlantic+wv
http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastnhewv.html

See ULL at 27N longitudinally-aligned with 92L, and the front off the east coast with zone of divergence aloft to the west of the ULL? -- Note the exhaust from the front's convective region streaming in a broad veil to the southeast, where it sinks in front of and north of 92L.

Another inhibiting factor: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-ir2.html

Over the last few hours, southwesterly winds aloft have begun to develop over the eastern Caribbean; they are already beginning to impinge upon 92L in recent frames, and will begin adversely affecting it in earnest by the time it reaches 55N.

With the ongoing subsidence in front of 92L, and the convective explosion near Central America, I would expect this shear to get worse in the short term.

[Meso]

Yeah I was also just looking at the loop now and seeing the shear almost creating a brick wall infront of the system as it rips the Westerly side of the wave to the north east.As well as the Eastern side of the waves convection dying, though there is slightly more in the 'centre'.Doesn't look very good compared to yesterday, the models aren't that happy with developing it now too

[KWT]

The simple reason is the same as last night, lack of convergence and nothing more nothing less, the convection just can't sustain itself. Its not as bad as pre-Dolly which actually breifly had surface divergence.

Still seems to be a threat to the Caribbean.

[Honeyko]

Yeah I was also just looking at the loop now and seeing the shear almost creating a brick wall infront of the system as it rips the Westerly side of the wave to the north east.As well as the Eastern side of the waves convection dying, though there is slightly more in the 'centre'.Doesn't look very good compared to yesterday, the models aren't that happy with developing it now too

I learned my lesson in 2006: If low-riders below 15N don't develop steadily as they approach South America, and instead sputter out around noon with no redevelopment for a good six hours, kiss 'em good-bye. There's always a reason their convection was squelched in the first place before the diurnal minuma, and that reason isn't going to go away. -- When shear comes a day later, it's just the clean-up detail.

==//==

Theory as to why that shear has developed: As 92L's convective exhaust approached, Saturday noon, the region where the east coast trough's exhaust had also been channeling, the upper atmosphere becomes squeezed -- It couldn't go back north, it couldn't go east (toward 92L), and it couldn't go south or west either (toward the equatorial heat-bulge and CA anticyclones respectively). The first two results of this were the suppression of 92L's convection through strong subsidence, and the enhancement of the ULL to 92L's north. The third was a "squirt" of high altitude air escaping the region northeast toward the ULL. Joila! Shear.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Still a "weak" LLC but the system is very disorganized over all this morning. Also southly shear is increasing, so I don't expect a tropical cyclone out of this for another 24-36 hours. In fact I would wait intil it gets into the caribbean to watch for development with this.

POOOF for now, but no reason to get McCoy yet.

[carolina_73]

92L looks like its getting sheared to the south. There is a nice ball of convection to the southwest of the system. I guess the center could relocate further to the south under that. I thought shear was supposed to be no problem for 92L??? If it does not develop I think the wave behind 92L could be the next candidate. What you guys think?

[wxman57]

Doesn't look like it'll be a TD today. Maybe tomorrow.

[KWT]

Yeah does seem like some southerly shear is on the system as well with the convection blowing up to the north of where any center is present.

[cycloneye]

This may be a teaser for the big one behind (Future 93L).

[HURAKAN]

Looks like Dolly all over again.