ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[boca]

This shows the center better but not much.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-ir2.html

[Honeyko]

Past 10PM EST with no Great Red Spot yet....it's really struggling to exhale aloft. Killer cap.

Note contrast with junk near Panama blowing to the moon.

[canetracker]

This shows the center better but not much.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-ir2.html

Unless my eyes deceive me, still looks to be moving west.

[SouthFloridawx]

Yes it does look like it's struggling a bit, but it does have good support in the Upper Levels.

Lack convergence at the moment.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8conv.html

[Blown Away]

Yes it does look like it's struggling a bit, but it does have good support in the Upper Levels.

Lack convergence at the moment.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8conv.html

IMO, a little better than a few hours ago. Some cold cloud tops near the LLC.

[boca]

This shows the center better but not much.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-ir2.html

Unless my eyes deceive me, still looks to be moving west.

Yes your correct due west.

[HURAKAN]

Past 10PM EST with no Great Red Spot yet....it's really struggling to exhale aloft. Killer cap.

There is no circulation with that system, which means that the convection will go poof soon. 92L has a circulation and it will refire soon.

[americanrebel]

10/2345 UTC 11.1N 46.2W T1.0/1.5 92L
10/1745 UTC 11.4N 43.6W T1.5/1.5 92L

Looking at these numbers, it looks like it is actually moving WSW. So why are all the models showing it moving WNW right away. I would first have to start moving W before moving WNW unless it does a 90 degree turn, that would be pretty amazing for a system not well developed to turn that much that fast.

[HURAKAN]

Popping.

[Derek Ortt]

let me say it again... there is no cap!

There is nothing at the surface to let there be widespread convection. Same thing that Dolly struggled with

[cheezyWXguy]

Yes it does look like it's struggling a bit, but it does have good support in the Upper Levels.

Lack convergence at the moment.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8conv.html

IMO, a little better than a few hours ago. Some cold cloud tops near the LLC.

yep. popcorn convection firing all over the northern half of the system. None of it is really consolidating right now tho. I think its well on its way though. As the llc develops, convergence should eventually increase. I dont think this will have as much problem as dolly did, and should show signs of organization overnight or tomorrow. If this does eventually blow up some convection over the llc, then it would likely immediately after be named a td.

[Blown Away]

Convection really starting to pop, and more WNW than due W IMO.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-avn.html

[boca]

This system has good symmetry and thats one good stepping stone for 92L to become a TD.

[canetracker]

10/2345 UTC 11.1N 46.2W T1.0/1.5 92L
10/1745 UTC 11.4N 43.6W T1.5/1.5 92L

Looking at these numbers, it looks like it is actually moving WSW. So why are all the models showing it moving WNW right away. I would first have to start moving W before moving WNW unless it does a 90 degree turn, that would be pretty amazing for a system not well developed to turn that much that fast.

Well I agree that it is not following model concensus at this time
https://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/plots/storm_92.gif

[cheezyWXguy]

Past 10PM EST with no Great Red Spot yet....it's really struggling to exhale aloft. Killer cap.

There is no circulation with that system, which means that the convection will go poof soon. 92L has a circulation and it will refire soon.

Yeah this is the difference between dolly and 92L. At the time of poof on 94l, there was no defined llc, and convergence did not return for a while. Since this does have a llc, convergence will likely return within the next 24 hours.

[Blown Away]

Yes it does look like it's struggling a bit, but it does have good support in the Upper Levels.

Lack convergence at the moment.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8conv.html

IMO, a little better than a few hours ago. Some cold cloud tops near the LLC.

yep. popcorn convection firing all over the northern half of the system. None of it is really consolidating right now tho. I think its well on its way though. As the llc develops, convergence should eventually increase. I dont think this will have as much problem as dolly did, and should show signs of organization overnight or tomorrow. If this does eventually blow up some convection over the llc, then it would likely immediately after be named a td.

100% agreement with you, I'm saying TD by 11am.

[SouthFloridawx]

Maybe a system will develop from the combination of this wave and the one behind it.

If not that, then the system behind it is going to lend some support for development of 92L.

http://oiswww.eumetsat.org/IPPS/html/DerivedProducts/MSG2/FOG/AMERICA/index.htm

['CaneFreak]

let me say it again... there is no cap!

There is nothing at the surface to let there be widespread convection. Same thing that Dolly struggled with

Its really amazing how many times you have to say something on this board for it to really sink in with people. I am really getting frustrated with this as well. Maybe I should go elsewhere. Its not worth your breath in here. People will never listen.

[boca]

Past 10PM EST with no Great Red Spot yet....it's really struggling to exhale aloft. Killer cap.

There is no circulation with that system, which means that the convection will go poof soon. 92L has a circulation and it will refire soon.

Yeah this is the difference between dolly and 92L. At the time of poof on 94l, there was no defined llc, and convergence did not return for a while. Since this does have a llc, convergence will likely return within the next 24 hours.

Very good point I agree 110%.

[cheezyWXguy]

let me say it again... there is no cap!

There is nothing at the surface to let there be widespread convection. Same thing that Dolly struggled with

Its really amazing how many times you have to say something on this board for it to really sink in with people. I am really getting frustrated with this as well. Maybe I should go elsewhere. Its not worth your breath in here. People will never listen.

Gee, I admit it takes some patience, but if you really feel that strong maybe you should. I admit its annoying but people post nonstop on here and some posts are bound to be ignored.