ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[cycloneye]

Will this round of systems turns out like what occuerd in 1995 with the parade of storms?

[Ptarmigan]

Wait and see for the next couple day before we have TD6 than Faye.

[zaqxsw75050]

I'm not going to jump on the band wagon of either it going poof or exploding yet, I will just sit back the next couple days and see where and what it does.

Well, it supposed to have slow development...

[Blown Away]

Noticed some convection building near the where the LLC is supposed to be. What causes the popcorn convection, I remember somebody explained that one time.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-avn.html

[boca]

Noticed some convection building near the where the LLC is supposed to be. What causes the popcorn convection, I remember somebody explained that one time.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-avn.html

I think its latent heat and instability.

[alan1961]

The third wave in the train just coming into view on the sat loop is looking a bit vigorous

[Derek Ortt]

the lack of low level convergence will keep this from going quickly

could have another Dolly-type development

If this had the convergence, this would intensify very quickly given the remainder of the environment

[Hurricaneman13]

Thunderstorms have died down, but the visible satellite looked pretty impressive and the system itself looks impressive. If it builds thunderstorms back up, it will probably become a tropical depression IMO.

[canetracker]

It takes FNMOC about 5 hrs to post this after it is taken, but still interesting viewing.

[Blown Away]

Sure does look like convection is building around the E and NE sides of the LLC. Also it appears the circulation is moving more WNW now. I predict a TD by 11am tomorrow.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-avn.html

[JonathanBelles]

Is the reason that this is not a TD because it is slightly elongated and convection deprived?

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

the lack of low level convergence will keep this from going quickly

could have another Dolly-type development

If this had the convergence, this would intensify very quickly given the remainder of the environment

I agree it could. It has to slowly gain convergence before it can go. I give this about 20% chance of becoming a cyclone over the next 24 hours, with 40% before 72 hours. But it could change very fast. It would not suprize me if this poofed or exploded.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Is the reason that this is not a TD because it is slightly elongated and convection deprived?

Its not in the Gulf and I would wait for some more convection even if it was.

[A1A]

Sure does look like convection is building around the E and NE sides of the LLC. Also it appears the circulation is moving more WNW now. I predict a TD by 11am tomorrow.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-avn.html

Yep, sure looks like some circulation is there now - not sure if it's at the LL though.

[Derek Ortt]

of course the circ is at the low levels

QS would NOT indicated a closed circulation if it were only in the mid levels

[MWatkins]

Elongated, but still a pretty decent circulation on the late afternoon QS pass...

Much better than the overnight pass...it was stretched and elongated along the ITCZ...this one is much more circular...

MW

[Ivanhater]

Mike, dont know if you have had time to look at this, but what are your thoughts on path and intensity?

[boca]

This looks good.Here's another perspective of 92L.
http://metofis.rsmas.miami.edu/~dortt/s ... 1_loop.gif

[Nimbus]

Those popcorn showers look like they are converging toward a center tonight. With that quickscat all it might take to have the NHC upgrade, is a better convection canopy at sunrise.

If I were going to guess, I'd say the center will cross 12N about 51W but IR imagery is so lacking in detail.

[Blown Away]

Sure does look like convection is building around the E and NE sides of the LLC. Also it appears the circulation is moving more WNW now. I predict a TD by 11am tomorrow.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-avn.html

Yep, sure looks like some circulation is there now - not sure if it's at the LL though.

The last position fix was near 11.1N/46.2W and that's rate where the convection is building and beginning to wrap around the LLC.