ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[RL3AO]

It we get some strong convection over the center, we might have a TD at 5am or 11am.

11 am seems right if we get some strong convection over the center. The NHC almost exclusively waits for visible when the system is not close to land where it can be tracked by radar and/or RECON.

11 is more realistic, but remember by the time its 5am on the east coast, visibles are already available for a few hours in the central Atlantic.

[littlevince]

IR (21:15z) + QS (21:12z) overlay

[weatherguru18]

Reminds me a lot of 1995 when we had (if I remember correctly...I was only 10 or so) Luis, Maryiln and Noel all in a line didn't we?

[Stratosphere747]

10/2345 UTC 11.1N 46.2W T1.0/1.5 92L
10/1745 UTC 11.4N 43.6W T1.5/1.5 92L

[jaxfladude]

Red:

Right on schedule....
The CV waves are back even if they do not become a TD or more well after passing the CV islands....

[cheezyWXguy]

10/2345 UTC 11.1N 46.2W T1.0/1.5 92L
10/1745 UTC 11.4N 43.6W T1.5/1.5 92L

Thats only because of less convection now...really its not important

[Scorpion]

This reminds me of Dean when it didn't have alot of convection but a very vigorous circulation. Definitely a sign of tenacity.

[carolina_73]

Is this where the LLC is located?

[Stratosphere747]

10/2345 UTC 11.1N 46.2W T1.0/1.5 92L
10/1745 UTC 11.4N 43.6W T1.5/1.5 92L

Thats only because of less convection now...really its not important

What's not important?

I posted both for reference and they are only estimates to begin with.

[alan1961]

Is this where the LLC is located?

just about spot on there carolina_73, maybe just a tad to the left of it but yes just about there

[Recurve]

Is this where the LLC is located?

That looks about right. It was easier to see on visible this afternoon.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Looks like we got some poof action going on. But with the well defined LLC, I expect convection to come back within the next 6 hours.

[RL3AO]

Buoy at 14.36 N 46.01 W has had rising pressures during the past few hours after they were falling pretty quickly before hand.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41041

[cheezyWXguy]

10/2345 UTC 11.1N 46.2W T1.0/1.5 92L
10/1745 UTC 11.4N 43.6W T1.5/1.5 92L

Thats only because of less convection now...really its not important

What's not important?

I posted both for reference and they are only estimates to begin with.

Alright. I wasnt accusing you of anything. I was just pointing out why the t numbers went down, and that its likely only temporary.

[cycloneye]

The best track for 92L at 00z:

AL, 92, 2008081100, , BEST, 0, 110N, 459W, 25, 1009, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 150, 40

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/

[americanrebel]

I'm not going to jump on the band wagon of either it going poof or exploding yet, I will just sit back the next couple days and see where and what it does.

[carolina_73]

Thanks It looks like it is somewhere close to that. 92L has a real nice S shape to it. If it does develop into a hurricane it looks like it could take the classic shape of the compact buzz saw. You guys think this will be a small storm if it does get to cane status?

[Stratosphere747]

Alright. I wasnt accusing you of anything. I was just pointing out why the t numbers went down, and that its likely only temporary.

I wasn't surprised about the T-numbers as it's still a slowly developing system. Did think the location would have been a bit more to the N.

Until we get recon in there it will be speculation on both fronts.

[alan1961]

I'm not going to jump on the band wagon of either it going poof or exploding yet, I will just sit back the next couple days and see where and what it does.

yes we've all witnessed the ''fizzle and poof '' show many times rebel and Dmin and Dmax do completely the opposite of what they ought to do but i'm not going down that road when i dont understand it fully, we just have to sit and watch

[wxmann_91]

I'm not going to jump on the band wagon of either it going poof or exploding yet, I will just sit back the next couple days and see where and what it does.

yes we've all witnessed the ''fizzle and poof '' show many times rebel and Dmin and Dmax do completely the opposite of what they ought to do but i'm not going down that road when i dont understand it fully, we just have to sit and watch

The dmax really plays much more of a role in the WPAC/Indian Ocean basins as opposed to the ATL basin. Although right now I have to say the convection poofing is well juxtaposed with the dmin.