ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[caribepr]

Do we have a glossary around here? I could sure use one! Derek, you mentioned a couple of terms that are misused; capping was one of them. What exactly IS capping in regard to weather/storm? Not even sure how to ask! I never heard of it until today, in terms of storms anyway.

[Mecklenburg]

now the convection is getting sparse...

[Stratosphere747]

Dry air is having some limited impact on the system.

[KWT]

Karen did strengthen upto a minimal hurricane...so not fair to say it didn't strengthen beforehand because it clearly did...

Anyway convection still doesn't look great but the structure still isn't all that bad, needs some convergence though because thats whats really hindering it a little now just like pre-Dolly.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Little dry air to the North and West.



Shear doesn't look that bad, it seems to be getting nice outflow, and it looked 'good', if a tad disorganized, on visible.


Despite partial poofation, I'd say odds in excess of 50/50 it becomes a TD in the next day or two, unofficially.


I said that 3 times in 4 days for 94L/Dolly, before getting it right finally, for a batting average of .250, so 50/50 really means a 12.5% chance of development. Maybe.

[Scorpion]

I'm going to say the GFS is current and not really doing anything with this system. The next wave is the big one.

[AJC3]

Do we have a glossary around here? I could sure use one! Derek, you mentioned a couple of terms that are misused; capping was one of them. What exactly IS capping in regard to weather/storm? Not even sure how to ask! I never heard of it until today, in terms of storms anyway.

A 'cap' is a thermal warm layer, usually in the mid levels, that inhibits convective updrafts.

[Honeyko]

Dry air is having some limited impact on the system.

The orange and red areas you're seeing are subsiding air. Note the strongest subsidence is right in front of 92L, not over toward Africa (where the SAL should presumably be driest).

Subsidence = adiabatic warming = capping layer. Less lift, less condensation, less clouds, certain light wavelengths bounce or radiate from the ocean surface straight to the satellite without hitting a thing.

[jlauderdal]

Do we have a glossary around here? I could sure use one! Derek, you mentioned a couple of terms that are misused; capping was one of them. What exactly IS capping in regard to weather/storm? Not even sure how to ask! I never heard of it until today, in terms of storms anyway.

google.com is an excellent way to find more about weather terms than you could possibly digest in a lifetime, happy googling

[KWT]

Derek has already said the main problem is the lack of covergence not the 'capping', its exactly the same with what happened with pre-Dolly as well.

[HURAKAN]

[Honeyko]

Derek has already said the main problem is the lack of covergence not the 'capping', its exactly the same with what happened with pre-Dolly as well.

They're interrelated: It's tough to maintain convergence while sliding into a region of subsidence.

[tolakram]

Looks horrible, someone hit the off switch. Looks like my ability to destroy storms by predicting development is still working. Hopefully this one fades away, I don't like the location.

[Derek Ortt]

dry air is not a problem of this system. Dry air can be around a system, but you need shear to get it in. See ch 3 of my thesis

[alan1961]

Well the circulation appears much less elongated and appears to have tightened up a bit. Although, this is one MASSIVE system. Convection appears to be increasing and development chances on the ssd tropical cyclone development probability page have skyrocketed.

i would not say massive... its a relativly small system.. thats why i think the gfs is having trouble hanging on to it right now... just a thought


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

Sorry about the late post..got a bit behind with the thread..i agree with you there vanechaser, while the GFS only has this as a minimal storm, TC or whatever, the biggie is behind it and winds it up to be serious business for the islands by next weekend, still they have been wrong before, so we'll concentrate on this one in hand first.


*edited by sg to take alan1961's post out of the quote box

[canetracker]

Lack of convergence is evident. However, environmental situations do change over time. Maybe the GFS is on to someting, but only time will tell.

[Honeyko]

Looks horrible, someone hit the off switch. Looks like my ability to destroy storms by predicting development is still working.

I predicted (perhaps over-confidently) that it would die over in the forecast challenge; we'll see who the Fates decide to make a donkey of this time. (We need Einstein and Hee-Haw jackass smilies.)

Hopefully this one fades away, I don't like the location.

Yeah; it's pretty much a cardinal rule that the prettier they look in the Caribbean, the more stuff they're going to wreck.

[abajan]

Looks horrible, someone hit the off switch. Looks like my ability to destroy storms by predicting development is still working. ..

Quite to the contrary, it looks quite healthy to me. I think convection will re-fire tonight and we'll have a TD by sometime tomorrow.

[caribepr]

Do we have a glossary around here? I could sure use one! Derek, you mentioned a couple of terms that are misused; capping was one of them. What exactly IS capping in regard to weather/storm? Not even sure how to ask! I never heard of it until today, in terms of storms anyway.

google.com is an excellent way to find more about weather terms than you could possibly digest in a lifetime, happy googling

ay yi yi...I spend my life googling and researching! I was wanting to cheat just for now (I'm whipped, getting ready to leave and securing my world) and thankfully, AJC3 let me do just that. Thanks for the capping answer, AJ!

[Ed Mahmoud]

dry air is not a problem of this system. Dry air can be around a system, but you need shear to get it in. See ch 3 of my thesis

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