ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[Mecklenburg]

92l is really not that much more organized than when it was declared an invest early this morning.

It's the typical slow process with a disorganized system.

i remembered that when it was declared an invest yesterday...the wave on 30W is much more impressive than this one...

[HURAKAN]

to be honest Hurakan I do think that looks better at least in terms of the curvature it has and also to some extent the convective coverage as well.

A picture is worth a thousand words! I didn't say anything and everyone got my point!

[ConvergenceZone]

to be honest Hurakan I do think that looks better at least in terms of the curvature it has and also to some extent the convective coverage as well.

I agree, while some of the intensity in the convection has waned a bit, the expanse of the convection has improved as well as the curvature of it....

[Stratosphere747]

to be honest Hurakan I do think that looks better at least in terms of the curvature it has and also to some extent the convective coverage as well.

A picture is worth a thousand words! I didn't say anything and everyone got my point!

And yet the bickering has been about where any llc is....

Carry on.

['CaneFreak]

to be honest Hurakan I do think that looks better at least in terms of the curvature it has and also to some extent the convective coverage as well.

A picture is worth a thousand words! I didn't say anything and everyone got my point!

And yet the bickering has been about where any llc is....

Carry on.

LLC? The LLC is to the east of the convection. We cleared that up hours ago. Thanks for rehashing a dead point.

[HURAKAN]

Loop: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-ir2.html

It's becoming better organized. Slowly but steadily. Dolly and Humberto are proves that poof shouldn't be called lightly.

[KWT]

Well as several of the pro mets have said if you have them not agreeing on the rough location of any LLC then clearly the system must have a very weak LLC if its there.

[wxman57]

Was away for a few hours and sat down for a look at 92L. My impression is that convection has diminished in the last 3-4 hours, and that weakening trend continues presently. Doesn't look close to a TD. Maybe tomorrow, maybe never. Needs to develop persistent deep convection first.

[HURAKAN]

wxman57, but that's normal in DMIN, especially for a developing disturbace.

[cheezyWXguy]

Was away for a few hours and sat down for a look at 92L. My impression is that convection has diminished in the last 3-4 hours, and that weakening trend continues presently. Doesn't look close to a TD. Maybe tomorrow, maybe never. Needs to develop persistent deep convection first.

Yup. of course convection was never over the center or very organized. I think we should just wait for dmax

[abajan]

HURAKAN, should this picture be viewed with 3D glasses?

[KWT]

Yep in terms of convection it is weakening but as others have said it is Dmin so I'd sort of expect it at this stage in a systems development, its not at TD yet I agree.

[Stratosphere747]

Was away for a few hours and sat down for a look at 92L. My impression is that convection has diminished in the last 3-4 hours, and that weakening trend continues presently. Doesn't look close to a TD. Maybe tomorrow, maybe never. Needs to develop persistent deep convection first.

I promise that no money was passed 57's way...

[canetracker]

Interesting latest image on RGB loop

[Honeyko]

http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastnheir.html

No centralized cold tops at present.

I agree, while some of the intensity in the convection has waned a bit, the expanse of the convection has improved as well as the curvature of it....

While that's a good note in favor, it's not always determinant. There have been times when the cap is so strong that it'll choke a TS as they near the LAs:



....and sometimes even hurricanes:



(And Karen had one of the biggest circulation envelopes I've ever seen. She would've been a monster major 'cane if she'd toughed it out.)

We know the cap was strong enough to crush invests as recently as last week (although 99L was farther north under stronger sinking than 92 is now).

[wxman57]

wxman57, but that's normal in DMIN, especially for a developing disturbacne.

I was just making an observation. There was talk of convection increasing and/or wrapping around. I don't see any increase in convection - just the opposite.

[x-y-no]

Was away for a few hours and sat down for a look at 92L. My impression is that convection has diminished in the last 3-4 hours, and that weakening trend continues presently. Doesn't look close to a TD. Maybe tomorrow, maybe never. Needs to develop persistent deep convection first.

Certainly not close to a TD now, I agree. Tomorrow morning, maybe. Things look decently set up for some overnight development in my humble opinion.

[KWT]

Honeyko, Karen got hit by shear, that was nothing at all to do with so called capping, I believe Earl was the same as well.

[Blown Away]

I feel 92L will be a depression soon and the TAFB map gives us an idea where the NHC will place 92L in 72 hours. Notice they have future 93L as a low to.
[img][/img]

[Derek Ortt]

the SAL and capping are two words that are being used in an incorrect manner quite frequently