ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[curtadams]

Wxman57, check that center fix on RGB. On RGB all the low clouds E of the convection are moving N, indicating a center under the convection. There are some high cloud filaments moving S in the same area which will make locating a center on plain visible very tricky.

[KWT]

The only issue I have with that center fix is simply that it would imply there is easterly shear...but all the cloud tops are if anything being slightly sheared from the west on those loops which wouldn't make much sense?

[cheezyWXguy]

Wxman57, check that center fix on RGB. On RGB all the low clouds E of the convection are moving N, indicating a center under the convection. There are some high cloud filaments moving S in the same area which will make locating a center on plain visible very tricky.

Im sorry I have to disagree with you. Whether the mlc is in the convection or not, the llc is CERTAINLY not in there.Check the vis loop. The elongated circulation center is just east of the convection, exactly where wxman put it.

[Comanche]

Ed,

What has JB mentioned in his blog? He have a gut to what it will become and where it will ultimately go?

[wxman57]

One thing is clear, when everyone disagrees on where a center is, it can't be very well organized yet. I think that the point the NHC used for the model initialization (10.7N/44.5W) is midway between the weal LLC and the mid level circulation in the convection.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Ed,

What has JB mentioned in his blog? He have a gut to what it will become and where it will ultimately go?

He is on the road today. Hopefully we will hear more later tonight or tomorrow.

[cycloneye]

Cranking up the T Numbers:

10/1745 UTC 11.4N 43.6W T1.5/1.5 92L -- Atlantic Ocean

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/positions.html

[KWT]

Yep T numbers also place the center further east probably close to wxman47's location with a displaced LLC. I've got a sneaky feeling that circulation won't last very long ad get replaced by another further west where the MLC is but we shall see who knows?

[ronjon]

8-10 day mean 500 mb steering for GFS & Euro. Pretty consistant showing the ridge extending over FL into the eastern GOM. Both models show the midwest trough with the GFS much stronger than the ECMWF. This pattern holds will bring 92L at least to the longitude of FL peninsula.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

[Extremeweatherguy]

The T-Number location looks pretty good. 43.6W and 11.4N is right about where I see the LLC too.

[KWT]

I think 11.4 is too far north for any LLC to be honest but what do I know, I'd have to go with the other estimate of 10.7 myself.

As for steering currents, the thing that will be interesting is if this sticks further south because if it does then a gulf threat could increase.

[x-y-no]

Yep T numbers also place the center further east probably close to wxman47's location with a displaced LLC. I've got a sneaky feeling that circulation won't last very long ad get replaced by another further west where the MLC is but we shall see who knows?

Maybe so. My own sneaky feeling is that we'll see convection firing over that center and wrapping around overnight.

Time will tell.

[KWT]

Thats also quite possible esp during the next Dmax as convection should flare up at least to some degree.

[Derek Ortt]

no... that SSD fix seems right on. That is a well-defined center

[KWT]

Then why do we have another pro met with a center fix about a degree to the south of that Derek?

[ronjon]

Intensity plot for 92L.

[HURAKAN]

Loop: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 031815.GIF

Becoming a large system. Next DMAX should be interesting.

[cheezyWXguy]

Then why do we have another pro met with a center fix about a degree to the south of that Derek?

I think wxman was just estimating, though either area seems a good fix, as the circulation is still a little broad. It looks better though since this morning.

[KWT]

no... that SSD fix seems right on. That is a well-defined center

Saying all that I've just said looking at the loops I can see why you say thats the center as well, there is some sort of LLC around that location, though its really tough to tell!

Also if that is the center then means a greater chance of a NE Caribbean hit IMO.

[vacanechaser]

no... that SSD fix seems right on. That is a well-defined center

looks right to me... certainly looks like a pretty decent circulation under there..



Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team