ATL: Tropical Depression Fay

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

The following areas need to
beware of possible
heavy rain/flooding/wind:
Northern Antilles, Puerto Rico, and
the Dominican Republic

[Chacor]

The following areas need to
beware of possible
heavy rain/flooding/wind:
Northern Antilles, Puerto Rico, and
the Dominican Republic

Don't you need a disclaimer with that?

[GeneratorPower]

It seems that lots of pro mets and official forecasts use the 2-3 day timeframe for development. Part of the time it never develops, part of the time it develops after 2-3 days, part of the time it develoops almost immediately. Point is, I think that timeframes like that are usually just a conservative, educated estimate, without stepping out on a limb too much.

You see the same thing in local NWS forecasts with POPs. They are usually conservative and try not to say anything more than they have to.

[Scorpion]

GFS still not bullish with this.. it continues to see development from future 93L

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

The following areas need to
beware of possible
heavy rain/flooding/wind:
Northern Antilles, Puerto Rico, and
the Dominican Republic

Don't you need a disclaimer with that?

I'll add one. I meant that regardless of development
these conditions could occur, so that's why I didn't put
disclaimer. But I'll add it.

[weatherguru18]

With the very deep troph over the eastern conus, I think this could very well pull a Floyd.

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... model.html

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

TOO EARLY TOO TELL:

Possible Tracks:
-Goes North of Antilles, heavy rains for northern islands and Puerto
Rico and Dominican Republic, east coast trough recurves
with 3 possibilities: 1. Out to sea, 2. Bermuda express, 3. Carolina express

-Goes through Caribbean, some possibilities
Slams lesser antilles and caribbean islands especially
central and south with heavy rain/wind, then in 7-9 days:
4. Central America with big ridge
5. Recurves into the Gulf with east coast trough

[MiamiensisWx]

The following post is NOT an official prognosis.

This system is definitely organizing. Originally, I did not anticipate development because of the very stable thermodynamic environment (SAL/subsidence inversion) surrounding the system. Note the low level stratocumulus and SAL immediately to the north and west. Convection remains relatively meager because of the stable boundary layer in the vicinity. However, QuikSCAT and visible satellite data indicates a broad, ill defined low level circulation is developing, and a surface low is now present. Upper level diffluence is good ahead of the system, and shear is minimal as well. Mid level moisture may be slightly increasing in the vicinity, and low level dry air in the boundary layer may be mixing out. Based on available data, I anticipate slow development, and I believe a TS prior to entering the Lesser Antilles is very probable.

The strength of the subtropical low level ridging (H7-surface) suggests a threat to the southern Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico/Hispaniola. Since the system will be influenced by the low levels, confidence is relatively high, especially because of the SAL precluding more rapid intensification. Residents in the eastern Caribbean islands within the aforementioned region should remain alert for heavy precipitation and locally strong winds as 92L approaches the area.

[Derek Ortt]

there is not likely to be much, if any SAL effects. The waves behind will take care of the SAL

[Scorpion]

From looking at the model runs and trends, I have a feeling that 92L will hit the islands as a strong TS/weak hurricane, but it will be a precursor to the "real deal" that is future 93L.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

The following post is NOT an official prognosis.

This system is definitely organizing. Originally, I did not anticipate development because of the very stable thermodynamic environment (SAL/subsidence inversion) surrounding the system. Note the low level stratocumulus and SAL immediately to the north and west. Convection remains relatively meager because of the stable boundary layer in the vicinity. However, QuikSCAT and visible satellite data indicates a broad, ill defined low level circulation is developing, and a surface low is now present. Upper level diffluence is good ahead of the system, and shear is minimal as well. Mid level moisture may be slightly increasing in the vicinity, and low level dry air in the boundary layer may be mixing out. Based on available data, I anticipate slow development, and I believe a TS prior to entering the Lesser Antilles is very probable.

The strength of the subtropical low level ridging (H7-surface) suggests a threat to the southern Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico/Hispaniola. Since the system will be influenced by the low levels, confidence is relatively high, especially because of the SAL precluding more rapid intensification. Residents in the eastern Caribbean islands within the aforementioned region should remain alert for heavy precipitation and locally strong winds as 92L approaches the area.

Thank you for that explanation Miami, that clears up some of my confusion
in the forecasting of this system.

[weatherguru18]

Here's Floyd...the most likely scenerio in my opinion of what 92 L will do.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Floyd_1999_track.png

Note that it may recurve slightly further west therefore impacting Florida directly. Still way more questions than answers. This thing is likely to end up in Hondorus for all we know. Let's just watch and be prudent.

[UKane]

The following post is NOT an official prognosis.

This system is definitely organizing. Originally, I did not anticipate development because of the very stable thermodynamic environment (SAL/subsidence inversion) surrounding the system. Note the low level stratocumulus and SAL immediately to the north and west. Convection remains relatively meager because of the stable boundary layer in the vicinity. However, QuikSCAT and visible satellite data indicates a broad, ill defined low level circulation is developing, and a surface low is now present. Upper level diffluence is good ahead of the system, and shear is minimal as well. Mid level moisture may be slightly increasing in the vicinity, and low level dry air in the boundary layer may be mixing out. Based on available data, I anticipate slow development, and I believe a TS prior to entering the Lesser Antilles is very probable.

The strength of the subtropical low level ridging (H7-surface) suggests a threat to the southern Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico/Hispaniola. Since the system will be influenced by the low levels, confidence is relatively high, especially because of the SAL precluding more rapid intensification. Residents in the eastern Caribbean islands within the aforementioned region should remain alert for heavy precipitation and locally strong winds as 92L approaches the area.

i agree... although the only thing I'm decent at is Intensity Forecast.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Here's Floyd...the most likely scenerio in my opinion of what 92 L will do.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Floyd_1999_track.png

Note that it may recurve slightly further west therefore impacting Florida directly. Still way more questions than answers. This thing is likely to end up in Hondorus for all we know. Let's just watch and be prudent.

Well that certainly would be a very destructive scenario, especially for Florida if it moves further west like you predict may happen. I just hope that if this system does impact the sunshine state, that it moves out by the 19th. I have a very important flight out of here on that day, and I really do not want it to wind up being cancelled.

[weatherguru18]

From looking at the model runs and trends, I have a feeling that 92L will hit the islands as a strong TS/weak hurricane, but it will be a precursor to the "real deal" that is future 93L.

Keep in mind that everybody was saying the same thing about Dolly--"oh, definite hurricane before the islands." Then it was also to take a path toward Hispaniola and up toward Florida. It ended up in S. Texas as a (In my opinion, though the hurricane center says differently) a weak Cat. 1 hurricane.

[cycloneye]

[weatherguru18]

Here's Floyd...the most likely scenerio in my opinion of what 92 L will do.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Floyd_1999_track.png

Note that it may recurve slightly further west therefore impacting Florida directly. Still way more questions than answers. This thing is likely to end up in Hondorus for all we know. Let's just watch and be prudent.

Well that certainly would be a very destructive scenario, especially for Florida if it moves further west like you predict may happen. I just hope that if this system does impact the sunshine state, that it moves out by the 19th. I have a very important flight out of here on that day, and I really do not want it to wind up being cancelled.

It's not a prediction, just one in a million scenerios that COULD happen. Could is the second biggest word in the dictionary behind IF.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Beyond 2-3 days the track is truly uncertain. There are many past
examples of systems once forecasted to go one way that
ended up another way.

[MGC]

Looks to me that a spin is evident in the satellite loop but it lags the covection. I think 92L could develope but it will take a couple of day or so. Looks like it should threaten the islands. If things come together quickly 92L could develope into a strong TS or weak hurricane by then.......MGC

[weatherguru18]

Looks to me that a spin is evident in the satellite loop but it lags the covection. I think 92L could develope but it will take a couple of day or so. Looks like it should threaten the islands. If things come together quickly 92L could develope into a strong TS or weak hurricane by then.......MGC

Well if my aunt had a male appendage, she'd be my uncle. . I think 92L stands a shot. Lets see.