Disturbed area in East Atlantic (No Development)

[Mecklenburg]

was this the one supposed to be near the coast of Africa? i'm confused, it thought it's still there near the coast, and it moved rapidly to the SW CV? can someone please explain...

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I believe there is a 30-40% that all these "3" waves do what 97,98,99L in poof. But we will see. Who wents to bet they go poof

[Weatherfreak000]

I believe there is a 30-40% that all these "3" waves do what 97,98,99L in poof. But we will see. Who wents to bet they go poof

You don't always have to state, "I believe", I think that's fairly obvious because your saying it in the first place.


As far as all these waves dissipating...that's obviously the highest probability with least risk...it always is. No need to state that.

[Blown Away]

Yes, and the 0z and 12z had it hitting the CONUS while 6z and 18z recurved it.

So we are real interested to see the 0z run here shortly. I think it was the 12z that had the low going through SFL on 8/24 and the more recent runs had the low recurving E and N of SFL on 8/23, which means those runs have the low moving faster. Seems the EC trough is predicted to be weakening about that time, so maybe the sooner this low gets to SFL the better the chances of it recurving N, but it might set up a scenerio where the BH is building in and blocks the recurving low and pushes it back towards the EC. But, first things first, it must develop.

[Mecklenburg]

I believe there is a 30-40% that all these "3" waves do what 97,98,99L in poof. But we will see. Who wents to bet they go poof

i don't think so, i believe the 2nd wave has a decent shot at it...

[HURAKAN]

I don't think its time to say that they will develop, but surely is no time either to say that they will go away harmesly. Tomorrow we should have a better idea.

[Normandy]

Starting to look good this evening, and looks like it is on its way to invest status. An earlier QSCAT pass also indicated a vigourous (albeit not closed) low with the wave. Steering suggests a possible threat to the Antilles.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm1.html

[Blown Away]

There is alot of moisture around this low, conditions look pretty good and I bet we see Invest status before to long.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-wv.html

[Mecklenburg]

There is alot of moisture around this low, conditions look pretty good and I bet we see Invest status before to long.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-wv.html

how is the shear in that area?

[cycloneye]

[Derek Ortt]

added a floater at http://www.nwhhc.com/satellite.html

note... it is labeled as invest_08... the 8th system I have placed a floater on this season. Even hough I am not high on development, I am interested in archiving these images in the event that it does not development to compare with developing systems

[Mecklenburg]

looks like it is caribbean bound...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[Weatherfreak14]

looks like it is caribbean bound...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

thats last nights 00z run, the new run wont start until 30min from now. I really dont think this is carribean bound unless it doesent develop until after the islands.

[Blown Away]

There is alot of moisture around this low, conditions look pretty good and I bet we see Invest status before to long.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-wv.html

how is the shear in that area?

Shear seems low, conditions look good!

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8shr.html

[MiamiensisWx]

We need a defined LLC; we can't speculate on intensity, track/heading, etc. without one...

Wait for development prior to speculating, so informed views can be formulated.

[Blown Away]

looks like it is caribbean bound...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

thats last nights 00z run, the new run wont start until 30min from now. I really dont think this is carribean bound unless it doesent develop until after the islands.

Yeah that is last night, but what I find interesting is the BH is weak and E until about August 20th and then begins to move W and build. If this system develops the timing seems to be right for an impact to the Islands and a high probability of an impact to the CONUS or a very, very close call.

[Normandy]

We need a defined LLC; we can't speculate on intensity, track/heading, etc. without one...

Wait for development prior to speculating, so informed views can be formulated.

Speculating the potential "general" track for a wave can be done without a system having an LLC...as long as one uses the proper steering levels (low level steering winds).

[Weatherfreak14]

I very much agree, i think this willl be very close to a flyod type track in the long run. no evidence but just a hunch on what the models predict. I think its going to be an extremely close call with a potientally monsterous storm...

looks like it is caribbean bound...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

thats last nights 00z run, the new run wont start until 30min from now. I really dont think this is carribean bound unless it doesent develop until after the islands.

Yeah that is last night, but what I find interesting is the BH is weak and E until about August 20th and then begins to move W and build. If this system develops the timing seems to be right for an impact to the Islands and a high probability of an impact to the CONUS or a very, very close call.

[HURAKAN]

LL:



UL:

[Blown Away]

I very much agree, i think this willl be very close to a flyod type track in the long run. no evidence but just a hunch on what the models predict. I think its going to be an extremely close call with a potientally monsterous storm...

The models are hinting the BH builds in in about 10 days and begins to move W and this is consistent w/ was Jeff Master's was talking about. If this develops the steering seems to be a classic setup.