Ex Invest 99L in Western Atlantic

[coreyl]

Why do people think this wave will make it into the gulf?

[Wx_Warrior]

Planning for what?

[cheezyWXguy]

Why do people think this wave will make it into the gulf?

1. the wave is weak enough to move west
2. the high is strong enough to push it west
3. the nhc says so.

[coreyl]

Why do people think this wave will make it into the gulf?

1. the wave is weak enough to move west
2. the high is strong enough to push it west
3. the nhc says so.

Where does the NHC talk about this wave?

[cheezyWXguy]

Why do people think this wave will make it into the gulf?

1. the wave is weak enough to move west
2. the high is strong enough to push it west
3. the nhc says so.

Where does the NHC talk about this wave?

i have not looked recently, but the last time I saw the tafb analysis it brought it straight west. one i saw a couple days ago actually brought it into northern cuba if im not mistaken.

[RL3AO]

TWO is way late. Either they are adding something or they forgot about it.

[SouthFloridawx]

Look at it on satellite. You can the apparent motion to the West, heading through the Bahamas into the Florida Straights. It's not hard to see at all...

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/trop_ge_vis_float1_0.html

[blp]

Look at it on satellite. You can the apparent motion to the West, heading through the Bahamas into the Florida Straights. It's not hard to see at all...

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/trop_ge_vis_float1_0.html

I see some small feeder bands developing. The structure is definetely improving....

[coreyl]

Look at it on satellite. You can the apparent motion to the West, heading through the Bahamas into the Florida Straights. It's not hard to see at all...

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/trop_ge_vis_float1_0.html

Ok is it actually moving west or is that pure speculation?

[RL3AO]

Its been moving west for a week now.

[blp]

Convection is not dying down.

Latest:

[coreyl]

Its been moving west for a week now.

I must have not looked at it in a while. I thought it was moving wnw and was going out to sea.

[RL3AO]

Its been moving west for a week now.

I must have not looked at it in a while. I thought it was moving wnw and was going out to sea.

It hit a weakness in the ridge a few days ago that caused some temporary WNW movement.

[SouthFloridawx]

Look at it on satellite. You can the apparent motion to the West, heading through the Bahamas into the Florida Straights. It's not hard to see at all...

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/trop_ge_vis_float1_0.html

Ok is it actually moving west or is that pure speculation?

Take a look at the satellite loop, it's very clearly moving west.

[coreyl]

alright i got it now thanks

[blp]

Seems like divergence is improving.

[Honeyko]

Seems like divergence is improving.

There's an upper-low just to the southwest of the system providing that cluster of convection with excellent divergence. There's shear out of the southeast, but since the system is moving west, it mostly cancels out.

==//==

"...but it has no chance of developing!" -- Steve Lyons, yesterday

[southerngale]

I have been preoccupied with Edouard for a while... isn't this the same Invest that all the models showed recurving and going out to sea several days ago?

[RL3AO]

I have been preoccupied with Edouard for a while... isn't this the same Invest that all the models showed recurving and going out to sea several days ago?

The models kept developing it so it was going to move north into the weakness in the ridge. It hasn't developed and continues to move west with the low level flow.

[blp]

Seems like divergence is improving.

There's an upper-low just to the southwest of the system providing that cluster of convection with excellent divergence. There's shear out of the southeast, but since the system is moving west, it mostly cancels out.

Based on the ramsdis vis floater it seems to me like whatever circulation center it has is just slightly southwest of the convection. Where do you see it at, if any?