Ex Invest 99L in Western Atlantic

[HURAKAN]

No RIP, not yet.

[HURAKAN]

[boca]

It has better conditions today than it had the last couple of days.It also has an s shaped signature to it and its still moving WNW,but they said it would turn north and break off.

[boca]

Hey Sandy our ex99L is still alive. I'm not sure if it will continue moving WNW or turn north.

http://metofis.rsmas.miami.edu/~dortt/s ... 1_loop.gif

[kpost]

Its DEAD, Its ALIVE. this thing needs to make up its mind.

[HURAKAN]

Lower levels:



Upper levels:



Don't know why it should move northward if it stays weak.

[HURAKAN]

Its DEAD, Its ALIVE. this thing needs to make up its mind.

Since it left Africa it has been alive. Sometimes it was in hibernation, but alive!!!

[storms in NC]

Its DEAD, Its ALIVE. this thing needs to make up its mind.

I think it is Dead.There is not any kind of blow up going on at all. just a wave.

[boca]

Lower levels:



Upper levels:



Don't know why it should move northward if it stays weak.

They said it in the two discussion. It looks like convection is increasing and I think we have to watch this more carefully.

[kpost]

This one has been fun to watch, it seems very emotional. I have been watching this one from the beginning, for no apparent reason (i have little knowledge on the subject) other then a gut feeling. so once again here is the screen that has been up on my computer http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/loops/wxloop.cgi?wv_east_enhanced+12 it updates every hour so other then you guys it has been most of my info regarding her (l99) fits.

[kpost]

HURAKAN-

Quick question. On your site you have a Invest 93L listed and on Derek Ortt's site he has L06. i posted about his and was told to ignore it. But what are they? they both seem to be about EX l99.

PS
You have a nice site.

[BensonTCwatcher]

Boy looking at this drama queen early today, I'd say it was dead, but on MSFC sat shots I still see a LLC. It looks more like a sharp wave ( and a weak) and Quickscat pass missed it. I was actually hoping it went poof, now I be drawn into checking on the bride of frankenstein today. Keep the good doctor away from the switch please...

[cpdaman]

it has had two near death experiences

now on to some legitimate questions

What is the real shear this thing is enduring, i honestly think those CIMSS shear charts can be off sometimes, so in situations where a TUTT is near by i don't trust the shear forecasts, and i don't really know enough yet from just looking at the WV, IR,VIS wether there is decreasing shear yet or not. appeared last nite the ULL was moving in tandem and just prolonging the shearing/torture process. latest WV shows me that perhaps this little bugger has made it west enough of the SW shear around the base of the ull/tutt (which also appears to be weakening) however on second look i don't think it has although completely (although prob less sw shear now) and the flow just NW of the storm appears to be ENE (and that flow appears to be collapsing toward ex99, so i don't think the ULL sw shear will recatch it (should that rambling make sense) , yesterday it fired some convection for a couple hours that was blown to the north. let's see what today brings

[HURAKAN]

[Frank2]

Nice photo of two thunderstorms...

The SAL is very widespread at this time, covering most of the Tropical Atlantic, so...

[cpdaman]

the scary Sal monster.....crikey

where a good sal link the one i'm on at CIMSS seems to only get to 60w

[Steve H.]

I don't know. It seems like the ULL is ventilating 99L, which now appears to be developing some decent convection. I think the portion that was going to get sucked north with the NE/SW oriented TUTT has been taken, and the LLC is going to continue on a WNW track. Might be an interesting day for the EX. Seems I can sense an overall spark in the tropics again today across the Atlantic basin. Hopefully that spark will get dimmed - but we're entering the active part of the season in the next few weeks.

[shortwave]

This one has at best been able to produce some short bursts of spotted convection.
At the same time while upper level winds and some dry air are not favorable it does seem like it could POSSIBLY, hold on to and produce more convection.
What I've been looking at is at the top portion of the wave where there seems to be maybe a piece of the energy seperating from the low level swirl that we have been following.
http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/ ... st_full+12
Hard to say what will exactly happen, but a lot of fun to watch.

[cycloneye]

Does not look bad at all.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Assuming this disturbance stays weak and continues WNW, when would
the moisture from it reach Florida?

I DO NOT want any tropical system, but some tropical moisture and rain
without severe weather would be nice.