Ex Invest 99L in Western Atlantic

[stevetampa33614]

Im trying to remember, the first of the models saying it was going to recurve was at 40W already. However it is worth noting it has gained 5 degrees in Latitude since Thursday. Hopefully we can get some professional discussion on this potential Bahama bomber. Because the only thing im a professional lately at is beer drinking and growing a neckbeard.



Steve
(unemployed)

[boca]

I still think this will recurve because of another trough that will be in the SE US by this coming weekend. The high is expected to be pushed down south over S FL which would cause this system to recurve.

[Blown Away]

Personally, I doubt 99L will be a significant issue, courtesy of the large TUTT situated immediately to its NW (NNE of the Leewards). As the surface low moves closer, it will encounter stronger mid/upper level divergence (shear), which will "knock down" the tops of the scanty convection. This is mentioned in the NHC's recent TWO. Another factor against development is the subsidence advected on the NE side of the upper low and surrounding mid level dry air, which will be ingested by the convection. This is very evident on WV imagery. Finally, in conclusion, this system will also face an uphill battle from the trailing SAL surge closing in on its heels. Remember that tropical systems can't "outrun" the SAL, so 99L will be affected as well. Although the surface low will continue west toward the eastern Bahamas, the trough in the western Atlantic extends from the low levels to the upper levels, so it may show signs of a NW turn toward the end per TAFB surface analyses and CIMSS 700-850 mb streamline analyses.
Mid level shear (streamline):
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8midshr.html
This is not remotely analogous to Katrina 2005. It's not even close, frankly.

The TUTT has been moving NNW faster than it was earlier today and the dry air to the W has been decreasing/moistening since earlier today. Don't get me wrong, the odds are 99L will never develop, but the TAFB is now carrying 99L's low through 72 hours into the SE Bahamas and the convection is building more tonight than it has all day. I'm pretty confident 99L will not develop for at least the next 24 hours.

[boca]

Here's a snippet out of NWS Miami.

EXTENDED FORECAST...
THE HIGH WILL THEN MOVE SOUTH LATE THIS WEEK AND BE LOCATED OVER
SOUTH FLORIDA NEXT WEEKEND...AS THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES BUILDS SOUTHWARD. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
THE STEERING FLOW TO BECOME MORE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST OVER THE CWA.
SO...THE WEST COAST AREAS WILL SEE THE NIGHT TIME AND MORNING
ACTIVITY WHILE THE EAST COAST AREAS WILL SEE THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACTIVITY.

Now this won't support a system moving wnw thru the Bahamas.

[Blown Away]

I still think this will recurve because of another trough that will be in the SE US by this coming weekend. The high is expected to be pushed down south over S FL which would cause this system to recurve.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
949 PM EDT SUN AUG 3 2008

EXTENDED FORECAST...
THE HIGH WILL THEN MOVE SOUTH LATE THIS WEEK AND BE LOCATED OVER
SOUTH FLORIDA NEXT WEEKEND...AS THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES BUILDS SOUTHWARD. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
THE STEERING FLOW TO BECOME MORE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST OVER THE CWA.
SO...THE WEST COAST AREAS WILL SEE THE NIGHT TIME AND MORNING
ACTIVITY WHILE THE EAST COAST AREAS WILL SEE THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACTIVITY.

If, big if, 99L ever develops and based on the TAFB position, 99L should be at SFL over very close before next weekend, like Friday, and may be to late to recurve away from SFL as the trough builds in over the weekend. By Wednesday evening 99L will be in the SE Bahamas. It could be one of those traditional timing/close call type scenerio's we here in SFL are all use to. I'm making alot of assumptions, I know that.

[HURAKAN]

[Honeyko]

Hah! ....never write off anything with a SE inflow feed.

[Blown Away]

Nice graphic, thanks.

[stevetampa33614]

Thanks for that Blown_away.

Nothing to worry about then. Looks like another beautiful week for south florida.

[Blown Away]

:uarrow:
Thanks for that Blown_away.
Nothing to worry about then. Looks like another beautiful week for south florida.

Wish we could get rid of the SW flow, the fishing stinks.

[Blown Away]

Blowing Up.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Here's a snippet out of NWS Miami.

EXTENDED FORECAST...
THE HIGH WILL THEN MOVE SOUTH LATE THIS WEEK AND BE LOCATED OVER
SOUTH FLORIDA NEXT WEEKEND...AS THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES BUILDS SOUTHWARD. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
THE STEERING FLOW TO BECOME MORE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST OVER THE CWA.
SO...THE WEST COAST AREAS WILL SEE THE NIGHT TIME AND MORNING
ACTIVITY WHILE THE EAST COAST AREAS WILL SEE THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACTIVITY.

Now this won't support a system moving wnw thru the Bahamas.

As Blown_Away pointed out, this is for next weekend (5-7 days away). The system should be in the Bahamas in only 3-4 days though, so it will be a close call. The sooner 99L develops (if at all), the better the chances are that it will recurve.

[HURAKAN]

A lot of dry air.

[Blown Away]

Started as 98L (I still think it is 98L in disguise) and moved N of the CV Islands and has gone nearly 2000 miles and only gained a few degrees of latitude and has been ignoring the models. Regardless, this has been a fun system to follow. I don't think it's over, 99L is dealing w/ the shear rate now and seems to be hanging in there and should have a better environment in 24 hours if it continues moving WNW.

[Blown Away]

A lot of dry air.

I agree, but the dry area has been getting smaller since this morning and in 24 hours it should be passing through this area. If 99L survives this dry air and TUTT over the next 24 hours it should have a better environment. The dry might be keeping 99L from developing and turning N and allow it to get much farther W, like the SE Bahamas.

[fasterdisaster]

Because the only thing im a professional lately at is beer drinking and growing a neckbeard.



Steve
(unemployed)

OT: I simply refuse to believe you don't know what I'm talking about when I say 'stairs?'

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Still has a nice cirulation all it needs to do is get a little more west away from the SAL surge. Also slow down to allow the tutt to back away. I still expect it to develop. Can it make it to the east coast; I believe it is possible.

[fasterdisaster]

I think it's possible but not likely. I also think a recurve is all but certain now.

[Blown Away]

I think it's possible but not likely. I also think a recurve is all but certain now.

Based on what?

[fasterdisaster]

I think it's possible but not likely. I also think a recurve is all but certain now.

Based on what?

Models, historical tracks.