Ex Invest 99L in Western Atlantic

[stevetampa33614]

Your correct. my bad. Floyd was a TD at this point but Floyd was at a lower lattitude. I lived on Long Island at the time and I can remember some rough winds from just a TD.

[kpost]

I saw this on the thread about the other African wave and thought it was a good view of this system.
Quick newbie ques. What is the perfect circle of dark red convection called and/or what does it mean?
It is just a perfect circle and i found that odd for a wave.




EDIT:

[Blown Away]

The models keep turning 99L sharply out to sea, I guess they assume a stronger deeper system, and the TAFB has 99L and/or the low in 24 hours just NW of 20N/60, but what is interesting in 48 hours the low (before the TAFB had 99L as an open wave at 48 hours) moves almost due W. I've been following the TAFB statements and what has changed is they keep 99L as a low for the 72 hours where as yesterday they opened 99L into a wave after 24 hours and had it S of Cuba in 72 hours. Now the 72 hour TAFB position is as a low in the SE Bahamas moving towards SFL. I'm done for now looking at the models they must assume a stronger/deeper system now, it's pretty clear if 99L ever develops it will be at least past 20N/60W.
TAFB Positions:
24 hour: moving WNW at 20N/60W:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atl ... BW_sm3.gif
48 hour: Just N of PR but still near 20N (Moving almost due W again):
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atl ... BW_sm3.gif
72 hour: In the SE Bahamas moving WNW towards SFL):
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atl ... BW_sm3.gif

Models:
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... model.html

[cycloneye]

Bye bye!

8 PM TWO:

SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE AREA CENTERED ABOUT
525 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS REMAINS
POORLY ORGANIZED. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE BECOMING LESS FAVORABLE
AND SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED AS IT
MOVES TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

http://asp1.sbs.ohio-state.edu/tropical ... c/outlook/

[HURAKAN]

Is not over until it's over. This system is moving closer to home and must be watched carefully. Recurving is not in the menu as it stays weak.

[Blown Away]

Bye bye!

8 PM TWO:

SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE AREA CENTERED ABOUT
525 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS REMAINS
POORLY ORGANIZED. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE BECOMING LESS FAVORABLE
AND SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED AS IT
MOVES TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

http://asp1.sbs.ohio-state.edu/tropical ... c/outlook/

I agree that development within 48 hours is low, but after 48 hours it will be N of PR and still as a low not an open wave per the TAFB. In 48 hours it will be past the shear currently NW of 99L. If 99L maintains it's low then this may become a player for the CONUS. Obviously the odds are it will dissipate, but a low in just E of the SE Bahamas needs to be watched!

[Extremeweatherguy]

The models keep turning 99L sharply out to sea, I guess they assume a stronger deeper system, and the TAFB has 99L and/or the low in 24 hours just NW of 20N/60, but what is interesting in 48 hours the low (before the TAFB had 99L as an open wave at 48 hours) moves almost due W. I've been following the TAFB statements and what has changed is they keep 99L as a low for the 72 hours where as yesterday they opened 99L into a wave after 24 hours and had it S of Cuba in 72 hours. Now the 72 hour TAFB position is as a low in the SE Bahamas moving towards SFL. I'm done for now looking at the models they must assume a stronger/deeper system now, it's pretty clear if 99L ever develops it will be at least past 20N/60W.
TAFB Positions:
24 hour: moving WNW at 20N/60W:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atl ... BW_sm3.gif
48 hour: Just N of PR but still near 20N (Moving almost due W again):
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atl ... BW_sm3.gif
72 hour: In the SE Bahamas moving WNW towards SFL):
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atl ... BW_sm3.gif

Models:
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... model.html

If the TAFB positions wind up being correct, then I wouldn't be surprised if this becomes one of those systems that tries to spin up right off the Florida east coast.

A few examples of this scenario (track-wise, not strength-wise) include...

Ophelia (2005) = http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Ophe ... _track.png
Katrina (2005) = http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Katr ... _track.png
Erin (1995) = http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Erin_1995_track.png
Edouard (2002) = http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Edou ... _track.png
Dennis (1999) = http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Denn ... _track.png
Arthur (1996) = http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Arth ... _track.png

We will just have to wait and see if 99L tries to pull off a repeat performance.

[HURAKAN]

Convection increasing again. Until this stops, the system is alive.

[RL3AO]

Its approaching a weakness in the ridge. Lets see if it gains a few degrees of latitude in the next 24 hours.

[Extremeweatherguy]

The convection looks to be right around the NE side of the potential low/mid level circulation too. If the convection can maintain itself through the night, then I think the NHC will have to re-evaluate this system tomorrow morning and possibly up their wording in the TWO.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Its approaching a weakness in the ridge. Lets see if it gains a few degrees of latitude in the next 24 hours.

It's going to be a close call. It looks like this system may be weak enough and far enough south to perhaps slip right under the small weakness and continue heading west or west-westnorthwest...

500mb heights: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_006l.gif

700-850mb Steering currents: http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm1.html

[Blown Away]

Its approaching a weakness in the ridge. Lets see if it gains a few degrees of latitude in the next 24 hours.

According to the TAFB 99L will gain latitude for the next 24 hours or so then move just N of due W to the SE Bahamas in 72 hours.

[MiamiensisWx]

Personally, I doubt 99L will be a significant issue, courtesy of the large TUTT situated immediately to its NW (NNE of the Leewards). As the surface low moves closer, it will encounter stronger mid/upper level divergence (shear), which will "knock down" the tops of the scanty convection. This is mentioned in the NHC's recent TWO. Another factor against development is the subsidence advected on the NE side of the upper low and surrounding mid level dry air, which will be ingested by the convection. This is very evident on WV imagery. Finally, in conclusion, this system will also face an uphill battle from the trailing SAL surge closing in on its heels. Remember that tropical systems can't "outrun" the SAL, so 99L will be affected as well. Although the surface low will continue west toward the eastern Bahamas, the trough in the western Atlantic extends from the low levels to the upper levels, so it may show signs of a NW turn toward the end per TAFB surface analyses and CIMSS 700-850 mb streamline analyses.

Mid level shear (streamline):

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8midshr.html

This is not remotely analogous to Katrina 2005. It's not even close, frankly.

[HURAKAN]

AL, 99, 2008080400, , BEST, 0, 195N, 543W, 25, 1012

[Sanibel]

The system looks like it will stay weak but NHC has changed tunes quickly before.

[HURAKAN]

[tailgater]

I don't like this forecast at all.

[HURAKAN]

That has to be taken with a grain of salt. For that to happen the circulation has to survive another three days.

[tailgater]

This is the first forecast that carried a low that for west.

[stevetampa33614]

I don't like this forecast at all.

Yea Im somewhat concerned cause at this point im really doubting any recurve until it develops. Which may happen. Its looking a bit healthier tonight. I know models are models and all. But models have been saying this recurve was happening since it left africa and they just keep moving the projection further west with the storm.

Well Suprise, it will be above the Antillies in 24 hours. Kinda running out of time.

Here to hoping im dining on crow tommorrow. For Shame, cause all I have left is Ramen.